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Title:Analiza fiskalne vzdržnosti gospodarstev skupine G20
Authors:ID Pittner, Dorotea (Author)
ID Bekő, Jani (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
Files:.pdf MAG_Pittner_Dorotea_2024.pdf (2,42 MB)
MD5: 0B902B24095BF41382FAA0B748D2CF46
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Master's thesis/paper
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:Zagotavljanje zdravih javnih financ postaja v okolju naraščajočih obrestnih mer in javnih dolgov vse pomembnejše za nosilce fiskalne politike, ki s svojim delovanjem opravljajo pomembne funkcije alokacije resursov, redistribucije dohodkov in stabilizacije gospodarstva. Vsled naraščajočih demografskih izzivov, potrebe po financiranju zelene in digitalne transformacije in ob prisotnosti geopolitičnih trenj je zagotavljanje fiskalne vzdržnosti in oblikovanje zadostnih fiskalnih rezerv v nekriznih časih ključnega pomena za učinkovito spopadanje z izzivi in stabilizacijo gospodarstva v času gospodarskih kriz. Zato v magistrskem delu s panelnimi testi stacionarnosti in kointegracije empirično testiramo fiskalno vzdržnost gospodarstev skupine G7 in gospodarstev G20 brez držav skupine G7, pri čemer prvi panel vključuje analizo za obdobje med leti 1950 in 2022, drugi panel pa za obdobje med leti 1998 in 2022. Članice G7 in G20 obravnavamo zaradi njihove vloge pri sooblikovanju globalnega gospodarskega okolja in spodbujanju mednarodnega gospodarskega sodelovanja ter usklajevanja med geografsko, kulturno in politično različnimi državami. Analizo pričnemo s pregledom teoretičnih izhodišč s področja javnih financ, primerjave pogledov različnih ekonomskih šol, opredelitve medčasovne proračunske omejitve in pomena zagotavljanja fiskalne vzdržnosti. Teoretična izhodišča dopolnjujemo z empirično evidenco, ki izkazuje mešane rezultate. Medtem ko konvencionalne metode ne beležijo toliko rezultatov za potrditev vzdržnosti javnih financ, panelne študije ponujajo več dokazov v prid fiskalne vzdržnosti, ki je potrjena tudi za gospodarstva G7. Nadaljujemo s pregledom javnofinančnih agregatov članic G20, ki jih nato uporabljamo v empirični analizi. V empiričnem delu testiramo stacionarnost državnih prihodkov, državnih izdatkov, primarnega salda in javnega dolga, pri čemer stacionarnost javnega dolga testiramo le v prvi diferenci. Kointegracijo testiramo v treh parih, in sicer (1) med državnimi prihodki in državnimi izdatki, (2) med primarnim saldom in odloženim javnim dolgom in (3) med javnim dolgom in odloženim primarnim saldom. Stacionarnost smo izvajali s testi prve in druge generacije, natančneje z LLC testom, IPS testom, Breitungovim testom, Fisherjevim-ADF in Fisherjevim-PP testom ter s Pesaran CIPS testom. Kointegracijo smo izvedli s Pedronijevim testom. Empirična analiza ponuja dokaze v prid fiskalne vzdržnosti gospodarstev v skupini G20.
Keywords:fiskalna vzdržnost, G20, G7, panelni podatki, stacionarnost, kointegracija
Place of publishing:Maribor
Publisher:D. Pittner
Year of publishing:2024
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-90484 New window
UDC:336.1/.5
COBISS.SI-ID:211889923 New window
Publication date in DKUM:17.10.2024
Views:0
Downloads:35
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:EPF
:
PITTNER, Dorotea, 2024, Analiza fiskalne vzdržnosti gospodarstev skupine G20 [online]. Master’s thesis. Maribor : D. Pittner. [Accessed 13 April 2025]. Retrieved from: https://dk.um.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=90484
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Licences

License:CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:05.09.2024

Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Analysis of the fiscal sustainability of the G20 economies
Abstract:In an environment of rising interest rates and public debt, ensuring sound public finances is becoming increasingly important for fiscal policy makers, whose actions perform the important functions of resource allocation, income redistribution and economic stabilisation. In the face of growing demographic challenges, the need to finance green and digital transformation, and in the presence of geopolitical tensions, ensuring fiscal sustainability and building sufficient fiscal buffers in non-crisis times is crucial to effectively address challenges and stabilise the economy in times of economic downturns. Therefore, in this master’s thesis, we empirically test the fiscal sustainability of the G7 and G20 economies excluding the G7 using panel tests of stationarity and cointegration, with the first panel including an analysis for the period 1950-2022 and the second panel for the period 1998-2022. We consider the G7 and G20 members because of their role in co-shaping the global economic environment and promoting international economic cooperation and coordination between geographically, culturally and politically diverse countries. We begin the analysis by reviewing the theoretical background of public finance, comparing the views of different schools of economic thought, defining the intertemporal fiscal constraint and the importance of ensuring fiscal sustainability. The theoretical background is complemented by empirical evidence, which shows mixed results. While conventional methods do not record as many results to confirm the sustainability of public finances, panel studies offer more evidence in favour of fiscal sustainability, which is also confirmed for the G7 economies. We proceed with an overview of the fiscal aggregates of G20 members, which are then used in the empirical analysis. In the empirical work, we test for stationarity of government revenues, government expenditures, the primary balance and government debt, with stationarity of government debt tested only in first difference. We test for cointegration in three pairs, namely (1) between government revenues and government expenditures, (2) between the primary balance and lagged government debt, and (3) between government debt and lagged primary balance. Stationarity was tested using first- and second generation tests, specifically the LLC test, the IPS test, the Breitung test, the Fisher-ADF, the Fisher-PP tests and the Pesaran CIPS test. Cointegration was performed with the Pedroni test. The empirical analysis provides evidence in favour of fiscal sustainability of the G20 economies.
Keywords:fiscal sustainability, G20, G7, panel data, stationarity, cointegration


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