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Title:Modeliranje podnebne ustreznosti za gojenje oljk (Olea europaea) na vzhodnem Jadranu (Slovenija, Hrvaška)
Authors:ID Lorenčič, Iztok (Author)
ID Kaligarič, Mitja (Author)
ID Donša, Daša (Author)
ID Grujić, Jaša Veno (Author)
ID Ivajnšič, Danijel (Author)
Files:URL https://press.um.si/index.php/ump/catalog/view/681/968/2444-2
 
.pdf RAZ_Lorencic_Iztok_2022.pdf (1,69 MB)
MD5: 937BC7EB828D15CB2B696C8BCA8487BE
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Article
Typology:1.16 - Independent Scientific Component Part or a Chapter in a Monograph
Organization:FNM - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
FF - Faculty of Arts
Abstract:Pridelava oljk je ranljiv kmetijski sistem, primeren za študije vpliva podnebnih sprememb zaradi dolge življenjske dobe oljčnega drevesa, njegove občutljivosti na sušo in visoke temperature ter vse večje vloge oljčnih nasadov v gospodarstvu sredozemskih območij. S pomočjo prostorske analize smo ugotavljali, kakšna je podnebna ustreznost za gojenje oljk v Sloveniji in na Hrvaškem. Ocenjujemo vpliv bioklimatskih spremenljivk na razširjenost oljčnikov na tem območju, vrednotimo prihodnje podnebne pogoje za gojenje oljk, zaznavamo variabilnost modelnih podnebnih napovedi na primeru oljčnikov in identificiramo prihodnja ustrezna in neustrezna območja za gojenje oljk v Sloveniji in na Hrvaškem. Obravnavana podnebna scenarija RCP4.5 in RCP8.5, v primeru oljke, kažeta različen razvoj ustreznih površin za gojenje na raziskovanem območju. Model Mahalanobisove tipičnosti (MT) napoveduje krčenje ustreznih pogojev v severnem predelu območja. Model Podnebne ustreznosti pridelka (CCS) pa kaže največje razlike v podnebni ustreznosti za gojenje oljk na območju Dalmacije, kjer bo lahko v prihodnosti več ustreznih površin tudi v notranjosti celine. Dolgoročne podnebne napovedi so lahko na lokalnem nivoju dokaj nezanesljive. Za natančnejše napovedi ustreznih pogojev za gojenje oljke bi bile potrebne bolj poglobljene analize na regionalni ravni. Prav gotovo bo oljkam v prihodnosti ustrezalo toplejše ozračje, vendar je problematika večplastna.
Keywords:emisijski scenariji, modeli razširjenosti vrst, podnebna ustreznost, prostorske analize, bioklimatske spremenljivke
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Publication date:26.08.2022
Publisher:Univerzitetna založba Univerze v Mariboru
Year of publishing:2022
Number of pages:Str. 75-100
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-88730 New window
UDC:581.1:551.58
COBISS.SI-ID:120089603 New window
DOI:10.18690/um.fnm.8.2022.4 New window
Publication date in DKUM:03.06.2024
Views:151
Downloads:11
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:Misc.
:
LORENČIČ, Iztok, KALIGARIČ, Mitja, DONŠA, Daša, GRUJIĆ, Jaša Veno and IVAJNŠIČ, Danijel, 2022, Modeliranje podnebne ustreznosti za gojenje oljk (Olea europaea) na vzhodnem Jadranu (Slovenija, Hrvaška). In : Primeri prostorskih analiz vplivov podnebnih sprememb [online]. Maribor : Univerzitetna založba Univerze v Mariboru. p. 75–100. P. 75–100. [Accessed 7 April 2025]. Retrieved from: https://dk.um.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=88730
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Record is a part of a monograph

Title:Primeri prostorskih analiz vplivov podnebnih sprememb : monografija v okviru projekta Preprečevanje toplotnega stresa v urbanih sistemih v luči podnebnih sprememb (ARRS J7-1822)
Editors:Danijel Ivajnšič, Daša Donša, Jaša Veno Grujić, Nataša Pipenbaher
Place of publishing:Maribor
Publisher:Univerza v Mariboru, Univerzitetna založba
Year of publishing:2022
ISBN:978-961-286-645-7
COBISS.SI-ID:119229187 New window

Document is financed by a project

Funder:ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
Project number:J7-1822-2019
Name:Preprečevanje toplotnega stresa v urbanih sistemih v luči podnebnih sprememb
Funder:ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
Project number:P6-0372-2022
Name:Slovenska identiteta in kulturna zavest v jezikovno in etnično stičnih prostorih v preteklosti in sedanjosti
Funder:ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
Project number:P1-0164-2019
Name:Raziskave za zagotavljanje varne hrane in zdravja

Licences

License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.

Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Climate suitability modelling for olive grove cultivation (Olea Europaea) in the Eastern Adriatic (Slovenia, Croatia)
Abstract:Olive production is a vulnerable agricultural system suitable for studying climate change impacts because of the longevity of the olive tree, its susceptibility to drought and high air/surface temperatures, and the growing role of olive products in the Mediterranean economy. With spatial analysis, we investigated climate suitability for olive cultivation in Slovenia and Croatia. We measured the impact of bioclimatic variables on the distribution of olive groves in this area, evaluated future climatic conditions for olive cultivation, detected variability in climate forecasts and identified future suitable and unsuitable olive growing areas in Slovenia and Croatia. We used the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, which indicated, different development patterns of suitable areas for olive tree cultivation. The Mahalanobis typicality (MT) model predicted a decrease in suitable climate conditions in the northern part of the area. The Crop Climate Suitability model (CCS), however, showed the largest differences in climate suitability for olive cultivation in Dalmatia, where more suitable areas, even more inland, can be expected in the future. More in-depth analyses at the regional level would be needed to develop more accurate predictions of suitable conditions for olive cultivation. A warmer atmosphere will certainly suit olives, but the problem is multifaceted.
Keywords:emission scenarios, species distribution models, climate suitability, spatial analyses, bioclimatic variables


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