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Title:Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes
Authors:ID Krüger, Tyll (Author)
ID Gogolewski, Krzysztof (Author)
ID Bodych, Marcin (Author)
ID Gambin, Anna (Author)
ID Giordano, Giulia (Author)
ID Cuschieri, Sarah (Author)
ID Czypionka, Thomas (Author)
ID Perc, Matjaž (Author)
ID Petelos, Elena (Author)
ID Rosińska, Magdalena (Author)
ID Szczurek, Ewa (Author)
Files:.pdf Krueger-2022-Risk_assessment_of_COVID-19_epide.pdf (2,06 MB)
MD5: C0EF059EE247242D5196C18CEDE97D18
 
URL https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w
 
Language:English
Work type:Scientific work
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:FNM - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
Abstract:The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant. Some predicted epidemic scenarios for realistic parameter values yield new COVID-19 infection waves within two years, and high daily case numbers in the endemic state, even without introducing VPs and granting more freedom to their holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While VP holders could initially be allowed more freedom, the lack of full vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.
Keywords:SIRS model, vaccination pass, stability analysis
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Submitted for review:17.08.2021
Article acceptance date:03.02.2022
Publication date:03.03.2022
Publisher:Nature Portfolio
Year of publishing:2022
Number of pages:Str. 1-14
Numbering:Letn. 2, Št. članka 23
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-88630 New window
UDC:616-036.21
ISSN on article:2730-664X
COBISS.SI-ID:100312835 New window
DOI:10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w New window
Publication date in DKUM:15.07.2024
Views:105
Downloads:15
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:Misc.
:
KRÜGER, Tyll, GOGOLEWSKI, Krzysztof, BODYCH, Marcin, GAMBIN, Anna, GIORDANO, Giulia, CUSCHIERI, Sarah, CZYPIONKA, Thomas, PERC, Matjaž, PETELOS, Elena, ROSIŃSKA, Magdalena and SZCZUREK, Ewa, 2022, Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes. Communications medicine [online]. 2022. Vol. 2, no. Št. članka 23, p. 1–14. [Accessed 23 January 2025]. DOI 10.1038/s43856-022-00084-w. Retrieved from: https://dk.um.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=88630
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Communications medicine
Shortened title:Commun. med.
Publisher:Nature Portfolio
ISSN:2730-664X
COBISS.SI-ID:80730627 New window

Document is financed by a project

Funder:ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
Project number:P1-0403-2019
Name:Računsko intenzivni kompleksni sistemi

Funder:ARIS - Slovenian Research and Innovation Agency
Project number:J1-2457-2020
Name:Fazni prehodi proti koordinaciji v večplastnih omrežjih

Funder:Other - Other funder or multiple funders
Project number:101016233
Acronym:PERISCOPE

Licences

License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:03.03.2022

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:sindrom sistemskega vnetnega odziva, cepilni potni list, stabilnostna analiza


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