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Title:City size and the spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil
Authors:ID Ribeiro, Haroldo V. (Author)
ID Sunahara, Andre S. (Author)
ID Sutton, Jack (Author)
ID Perc, Matjaž (Author)
ID Hanley, Quentin S. (Author)
Files:.pdf PLOS_ONE_2020_Ribeiro_et_al._City_size_and_the_spreading_of_COVID-19_in_Brazil..pdf (1,23 MB)
MD5: 6833520B57B7881912FEE382C130230F
PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/1de231ef-5556-4261-85eb-b5b7defc2fc1
 
URL https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0239699
 
Language:English
Work type:Article
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:FNM - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
Abstract:The current outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an unprecedented example of how fast an infectious disease can spread around the globe (especially in urban areas) and the enormous impact it causes on public health and socio-economic activities. Despite the recent surge of investigations about different aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we still know little about the effects of city size on the propagation of this disease in urban areas. Here we investigate how the number of cases and deaths by COVID-19 scale with the population of Brazilian cities. Our results indicate small towns are proportionally more affected by COVID-19 during the initial spread of the disease, such that the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths per capita initially decrease with population size. However, during the long-term course of the pandemic, this urban advantage vanishes and large cities start to exhibit higher incidence of cases and deaths, such that every 1% rise in population is associated with a 0.14% increase in the number of fatalities per capita after about four months since the first two daily deaths. We argue that these patterns may be related to the existence of proportionally more health infrastructure in the largest cities and a lower proportion of older adults in large urban areas. We also find the initial growth rate of cases and deaths to be higher in large cities; however, these growth rates tend to decrease in large cities and to increase in small ones over time.
Keywords:COVID-19, coronavirus, scaling, city size, epidemic, prediction
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Year of publishing:2020
Number of pages:str. 1-12
Numbering:Letn. 15, Št. 9
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-78183 New window
UDC:616-036.22(81)
ISSN on article:1932-6203
COBISS.SI-ID:29858051 New window
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0239699 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:26QLFNRW
Publication date in DKUM:12.11.2020
Views:980
Downloads:271
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:Misc.
:
RIBEIRO, Haroldo V., SUNAHARA, Andre S., SUTTON, Jack, PERC, Matjaž and HANLEY, Quentin S., 2020, City size and the spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil. PloS one [online]. 2020. Vol. 15, no. Št. 9, p. 1–12. [Accessed 23 January 2025]. DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0239699. Retrieved from: https://dk.um.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=78183
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:PloS one
Publisher:Public Library of Science
ISSN:1932-6203
COBISS.SI-ID:2005896 New window

Document is financed by a project

Funder:ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
Project number:J4-9302
Name:Raziskave medceličnih komunikacij v večceličnih skupnostih različnih izolatov bakterije iz rodu Bacillus

Funder:ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
Project number:J1-9112
Name:Kvantna lokalizacija v kaotičnih sistemih

Funder:ARRS - Slovenian Research Agency
Project number:P1-0403
Name:Računsko intenzivni kompleksni sistemi

Licences

License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:12.11.2020

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Keywords:COVID-19, koronavirus, skaliranje, velikost mesta, epidemija, napoved


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