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Title:Markov analysis of studentsʼ performance and academic progress in higher education
Authors:ID Brezavšček, Alenka (Author)
ID Pejić Bach, Mirjana (Author)
ID Baggia, Alenka (Author)
Files:.pdf Organizacija_2017_Brezavscek,_Pejic_Bach,_Baggia_Markov_Analysis_of_Students__Performance_and_Academic_Progress_in_Higher_Education.pdf (1,17 MB)
MD5: 319C4DF9899D5C78CA20E7EAC5101DF6
PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/1a93b8fb-bda3-4b0c-9b86-fa24499d2b13
 
URL http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/orga.2017.50.issue-2/orga-2017-0006/orga-2017-0006.xml
 
Language:English
Work type:Scientific work
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:FOV - Faculty of Organizational Sciences in Kranj
Abstract:Background: The students’ progression towards completing their higher education degrees possesses stochastic characteristics, and can therefore be modelled as an absorbing Markov chain. Such application would have a high practical value and offer great opportunities for implementation in practice. Objectives: The aim of the paper is to develop a stochastic model for estimation and continuous monitoring of various quality and effectiveness indicators of a given higher education study programme. Method: The study programme is modelled by a finite Markov chain with five transient and two absorbing states. The probability transition matrix is constructed. The quantitative characteristics of the absorbing Markov chain, like the expected time until absorption and the probabilities of absorption, are used to determine chosen indicators of the programme. Results: The model is applied to investigate the pattern of students’ enrolment and their academic performance in a Slovenian higher education institution. Based on the students’ intake records, the transition matrix was developed considering eight consecutive academic seasons from 2008/09 until 2016/17. The students’ progression towards the next stage of the study programme was estimated. The expected time that a student spends at a particular stage as well as the expected duration of the study is determined. The graduation and withdrawal probabilities were obtained. Besides, a prediction on the students’ enrolment for the next three academic years was made. The results were interpreted and discussed. Conclusion: The analysis presented is applicable for all higher education stakeholders. It is especially useful for a higher education institution’s managers seeing that it provides useful information to plan improvements regarding the quality and effectiveness of their study programmes to achieve better position in the educational market.
Keywords:higher education, study programme, effectiveness indicators, enrolment prediction
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Year of publishing:2017
Number of pages:str. 83-96
Numbering:Letn. 50, št. 2
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-66683 New window
ISSN:1318-5454
UDC:378
ISSN on article:1318-5454
COBISS.SI-ID:7929875 New window
DOI:10.1515/orga-2017-0006 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:3RDXO5TV
Publication date in DKUM:06.07.2017
Views:1272
Downloads:417
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:Misc.
:
BREZAVŠČEK, Alenka, PEJIĆ BACH, Mirjana and BAGGIA, Alenka, 2017, Markov analysis of studentsʼ performance and academic progress in higher education. Organizacija : revija za management, informatiko in kadre [online]. 2017. Vol. 50, no. 2, p. 83–96. [Accessed 31 March 2025]. DOI 10.1515/orga-2017-0006. Retrieved from: https://dk.um.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=66683
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Organizacija : revija za management, informatiko in kadre
Shortened title:Organizacija
Publisher:Moderna organizacija
ISSN:1318-5454
COBISS.SI-ID:610909 New window

Licences

License:CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:06.07.2017

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Title:Markovska analiza uspešnosti in akademskega napredka na visokošolskem študiju
Abstract:Izhodišča: Proces napredovanja študentov do zaključka visokošolskega študija kaže stohastične značilnosti, zato ga lahko popišemo z Markovsko verigo. Taka aplikacija ima veliko praktično vrednost, saj zaradi enostavnosti teoretičnega modela nudi številne priložnosti za implementacijo v praksi. Namen: Namen prispevka je razviti stohastični model za ocenjevanje in spremljanje različnih kvantitativnih indikatorjev kakovosti in učinkovitosti izbranega visokošolskega študijskega programa. Metodologija: Študijski program modeliramo s končno Markovsko verigo s petimi prehodnimi stanji in dvema ponornima stanjema. Predstavljena je prehodna matrika, ki podaja verjetnosti prehodov med posameznimi stanji. Za izračun izbranih indikatorjev študijskega programa uporabimo kvantitativne karakteristike razcepne Markovske verige, kot sta povprečni čas do absorpcije in verjetnost za absorpcijo. Rezultati: Model smo aplicirali na izbrani študijski program slovenske visokošolske institucije. Na osnovi vpisnih podatkov smo oblikovali prehodno matriko, pri čemer smo upoštevali osem zaporednih študijskih let, od vpisnega leta 2008/09 do 2016/17. Ocenili smo delež študentov, ki redno napreduje v naslednji letnik (nivo) študijskega programa. Določili smo povprečni čas zadrževanja študenta na posameznem nivoju študija ter povprečno trajanje študija. Izračunali smo verjetnost, da bo študent uspešno zaključil študij (diplomiral) ali opustil študij. Poleg tega smo napovedali število študentov na posameznem nivoju študijskega programa, ki jih v danih razmerah lahko pričakujemo v naslednjih treh študijskih letih. Prikazane rezultate smo komentirali in diskutirali o možnostih nadaljnjih raziskav. Zaključek: Predstavljena analiza je uporabna za vse deležnike, ki krojijo politiko visokošolskega izobraževanja. Predvsem je uporabna za vodstvo obravnavane visokošolske ustanove, saj nudi pomembne in koristne informacije za načrtovanje izboljšav glede kakovosti in učinkovitosti študijskega programa s ciljem zasesti čim boljšo pozicijo na tržišču visokošolskih izobraževalnih ustanov.
Keywords:visoko šolstvo, študijski program, kazalci učinkovitosti, napoved vpisa


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