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Title:ANALIZA VPLIVA GLOBALNE FINANČNE KRIZE NA FISKALNO VZDRŽNOST DRŽAV EVROOBMOČJA
Authors:Gregurec, Mirjana (Author)
Strašek, Sebastjan (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
Files:.pdf MAG_Gregurec_Mirjana_2016.pdf (1,22 MB)
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Master's thesis (m2)
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:Glavni namen naloge je oceniti vpliv globalne gospodarske in finančne krize, ki je nastopila leta 2008, na kratkoročno, srednjeročno in dolgoročno vzdržnost javnih financ skupine držav evroobmočja. Fiskalna vzdržnost pomeni dolgoročno plačilno sposobnost držav, pri katerih se delež javnega dolga v BDP ne povečuje oziroma ima težnjo vračanja na začetno raven. V teoretičnem delu naloge smo kritično prikazali dejavnike, ki vplivajo na vzdržnost javnih financ, in predstavili glavne metode ocenjevanja vzdržnosti javnih financ. V drugem, empiričnem delu smo ocenili fiskalno vzdržnost z metodo primarne fiskalne vrzeli, ki so jo v strokovno literaturo uvedli in uveljavili Buiter (1983), Bohn (1998) in Blanchard (1990). Kazalnik primarne fiskalne vrzeli meri razliko med deležem tekočega primarnega deficita v BDP in deležem zahtevanega stabilizacijskega deficita, potrebnega, da se delež javnega dolga v BDP ne poveča. Ključne spremenljivke, ki se v modelu uporabljajo, so: delež javnega dolga v BDP, delež fiskalnega salda v BDP, delež primarnega fiskalnega salda v BDP, nominalne in realne stopnje gospodarske rasti ter nominalne in realne obrestne mere na javni dolg. Zaključimo lahko, da je finančna kriza resno ogrozila vzdržnost javnih financ evroobmočja in izpostavila potrebo nujnega fiskalnega prilagajanja in dolgoročne fiskalne konsolidacije. Ker so v nalogi analizirani prihodnji dogodki ali stanja na podlagi zgodovinskih podatkov in arbitrarno izbranih izhodiščih, je treba upoštevati tveganje korektnosti dobljenih ocen.
Keywords:javni dolg, proračunski primanjkljaj, fiskalna vzdržnost, fiskalna politika, metoda primarne fiskalne vrzeli
Year of publishing:2016
Publisher:[M. Gregurec]
Source:Maribor
UDC:336.1
COBISS_ID:12290588 Link is opened in a new window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:K1AEHCQK
Views:506
Downloads:69
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Categories:EPF
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Analysis of the Financial Crisis on the Fiscal Sustainability of the Euro Area Countries
Abstract:The main purpose of the master's thesis is to assess the impact of the global economic and financial crisis that occurred in 2008 in the short, medium and long-term sustainability of public finances of the euro area countries. Fiscal sustainability means long-term solvency of countries in which the debt-to-GDP ratio is not growing or has a tendency to return to the initial level. The theoretical part of the thesis I show the critical factors that affect the sustainability of public finances and present major assessment methods sustainability of public finances. In the second empirical part I assess the fiscal sustainability by the method of primary fiscal gap, which was introduced in the professional literature and asserted Buiter (1983), Bohn (1998), and Blannchard (1990). The ratio of primary fiscal gap measures the difference between the share of current primary deficit in GDP and the share of the stabilization deficit required that the debt-to-GDP ratio increases. Key variables used in the model are the share of public debt in GDP, the share of fiscal balance in GDP, the share of the primary fiscal balance to GDP, nominal and real economic growth rates and nominal and real interest rates on public debt. At the end, we can conclude that the financial crisis has seriously jeopardize the sustainability of public finances of the euro area, highlighting the urgent need for fiscal adjustment and fiscal consolidation. Since the task analyzed future events or conditions on the basis of historical data, the risk of correctness obtained estimates should be considered.
Keywords:public debt, budget deficit, fiscal sustainability, fiscal policy, methods of measuring fiscal sustainability, model primary fiscal gaps.


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