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Title:
Večkriterijski model za ocenjevanje fungicidov proti jablanovemu škrlupu (Venturia inaequalis)
Authors:
ID
Grabnar, Tina
(Author)
ID
doc. dr., Črtomir Rozman
(Mentor)
More about this mentor...
ID
izr. prof. dr., Mario Lešnik
(Comentor)
Files:
MAG_Grabnar_Tina_2009.pdf
(1015,64 KB)
MD5: 3415DDCB695602EE6AE32B356C7FF66C
PID:
20.500.12556/dkum/03906609-97b5-4940-af07-994bb7e31792
Language:
Slovenian
Work type:
Master's thesis
Organization:
FKBV - Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences
Abstract:
Jablanov škrlup je pomembna bolezen jabolk, ki za ekonomsko uspešno in tehnološko vzdržno pridelavo zahteva pravilno izbiro zaščite pred boleznijo. Poznati moramo učinkovitost pripravkov ali fungicidnih programov, ceno, uporabnost za integrirano ali ekološko kmetovanje, možnost kurativnega delovanja in pojava odpornosti, delovanje proti drugim boleznim ter toksikološke lastnosti. V nalogi smo razvili večkriterijski odločitveni model za ocenjevanje fungicidnih programov. Pri razvoju modela smo uporabili lupino ekspertnega sistema za večkriterijsko odločanje DEXi. Z uporabo našega modela smo dobili končno oceno parametra tako, da smo posamezne kriterije opisali s podkriteriji, ki smo jih nato združili v skupno oceno s pomočjo funkcije koristnosti. V nalogi smo nekatere podkriterije opisali s še bolj specifičnimi podkriteriji. Prednosti takšnega modela so v tem, da lahko tako numerične kot opisne kategorije ovrednotimo in primerjamo med sabo. Ocene atributov in določitev funkcije koristnosti zahtevajo ekspertno znanje in se jih lahko kadarkoli tudi spremeni. Večkriterijski odločitveni model ne more nadomestiti ekspertnega znanja, temveč le omogoča sistematično razvrstitev velike količine podatkov in poenostavi postopek odločanja. V model smo vključili 23 fungicidnih programov iz treh zaporednih preizkusov v letih 2004, 2005 in 2006. Za vse programe smo pridobili informacije o učinkovitosti delovanja na listih, na plodu in o delovanju na druge bolezni jablan. Uporabili smo tudi podatke o kurativnem delovanju fungicidov v programih in o možnostih pojava odpornosti. Primerjali smo še podatke o ceni programov ter o uporabnosti za ekološko ali integrirano pridelavo ter o toksikoloških lastnostih fungicidov. Vse te informacije smo preko funkcij koristnosti združili v tri agregatne parametre in na koncu določili skupno oceno fungicidnega programa. Končna ocena fungicidnega programa se je za 22 fungicidnih programov bistveno razlikovala od individualnih ocen po posameznih kriterijih, le v enem primeru je bila enaka. Večkriterijski hierarhični model je omogočil razvrščanje fungicidnih programov po več kriterijih. Izmed triindvajsetih programov je samo eden dosegel najboljšo oceno 'odličen'. Dvanajst programov je bilo ocenjenih kot 'dobri', sledilo je sedem programov z oceno 'srednji', trije programi pa so dobili najslabšo oceno 'slab'. Ob primerjavi rezultatov večkriterijskega modela za ocenjevanje fungicidnih programov z rezultati ocen po posameznih kriterijih smo ugotovili bistvene razlike v ocenah. Vsi programi razen enega so se v vsaj eni oceni za posamezen kriterij razlikovali od končne ocene fungicida. S tem smo potrdili delovno hipotezo, ko smo predvideli, da se bo razporeditev fungicidov oz. fungicidnih programov po večjem številu kriterijev, ki jih bomo določili z večkriterijskim modelom, razlikovala od razvrstitve, pri kateri bi bil kriterij samo eden (na primer cena izdelka ali rezultat bioloških testiranj). Večkriterijski model je uporaben pripomoček za nepristransko ocenjevanje fungicidnih programov proti jablanovemu škrlupu in omogoča uporabo razvite metodologije pri ocenjevanju programov, ko želijo uporabniki primerjati večje število pripravkov glede na več zahtev v pridelavi.
Keywords:
jablanov škrlup (Venturia inaequalis)
,
fungicidni program
,
ocenjevanje fungicidov
,
DEXi
,
večkriterijski model
,
odločitveni model
,
ekspertni sistem
Place of publishing:
Hoče
Year of publishing:
2009
PID:
20.500.12556/DKUM-9894
NUK URN:
URN:SI:UM:DK:YADJRAFR
Publication date in DKUM:
18.03.2009
Views:
5441
Downloads:
448
Metadata:
Categories:
FKBV
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GRABNAR, Tina, 2009,
Večkriterijski model za ocenjevanje fungicidov proti jablanovemu škrlupu (Venturia inaequalis)
[online]. Master’s thesis. Hoče. [Accessed 18 April 2025]. Retrieved from: https://dk.um.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=9894
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Secondary language
Language:
English
Title:
Multi-attribute Model for Evaluation of Fungicides Against Apple Scab (Venturia inaequalis)
Abstract:
Apple scab is an important disease of apple trees which requires the correct choice of protection against it in order to ensure economically successful and technologically sustainable production. We have to be familiar with the efficacy of preparations or fungicide programmes, the price, applicability for integrated or ecological farming, the possibility for curative action and the emergence of resistance, efficacy against other diseases and toxicological characteristics. In our thesis a multi criteria decision model for the evaluation of fungicide programmes was developed. The multi-attribute decision-making metod DEX (implemented through programme DEXi) was used for the development of the model. By applying our model we obtained the final attribute estimation by describing particular criteria with sub-criteria which were further joined into one common estimate by means of the utility function. Some sub-criteria in the thesis were further described with even more specific sub-criteria. The advantages of such a model are that numerical, as well as discrete, categories can be evaluated and compared to each other. The attribute evaluation and the determination of utility function require expert knowledge and can be changed at any time. A multi criteria decision model cannot replace expert knowledge, since it only enables a systematic categorisation of a large amount of data and simplifies the evaluation process. 23 fungicide programmes from three consecutive tests in 2004, 2005 and 2006 were included in the model. Information on the efficiency on leaves, fruits and against other apple tree diseases were gathered for all programmes. We also used information on the curative action of fungicides in programmes and on the possibility of resistance. Then the information on the price of programmes, on the applicability for integrated or ecological production and on the toxicological characteristics of fungicides were compared. All this information was then joined by means of the utility function to three aggregate attributes and, finally, a common estimate of the fungicide programme was made. The final estimate of the fungicide programme, being the same only in one case, differed substantially by 22 fungicide programmes from the estimates according to each criterion. The multi attribute hierarchical model enabled the categorisation of fungicide programmes according to several attributes. Only one of twenty-three programmes was estimated as ‘excellent’. Twenty programmes were evaluated as ‘good’, seven got the estimate ‘fair’, whereas three programmes were estimated as ’poor’. By comparing the results of the multi criteria model for the evaluation of fungicide programmes with the results of evaluation according to each criterion, major differences as to the estimates were discovered. All but one of the programmes differed at least in one estimate for a particular criterion from the final estimate of the fungicide. Thus the working hypothesis was confirmed, stating that the categorisation of fungicides or fungicide programmes according to several criteria, determined by means of the multi criteria model, would differ from the categorisation which includes only one criterion (e.g. the price of the product or biological testing results). The multi criteria model is a useful instrument for equitable evaluation of the efficacy of fungicide programmes against apple scab. The developed methodology can be used in practice in the evaluation of programmes by fruit producers and other users when they want to compare several preparations according to several production requirements at the same time. The model can be adjusted to specific requirements or updated with new information.
Keywords:
apple scab (Venturia inaequalis)
,
fungicide programme
,
evaluation of fungicide
,
DEXi
,
multi-attribute model
,
decision model
,
expert system
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