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Title:Container throughput forecasting using dynamic factor analysis and ARIMAX model
Authors:ID Intihar, Marko (Author)
ID Kramberger, Tomaž (Author)
ID Dragan, Dejan (Author)
Files:.pdf PROMET_2017_Intihar,_Kramberger,_Dragan_Container_Throughput_Forecasting_Using_Dynamic_Factor_Analysis_and_ARIMAX_Model.pdf (1,33 MB)
MD5: 32924E112289679B636F5B464FA88B5C
PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/f4fa8f47-f5db-452e-aa92-39ed60f878d7
 
URL http://www.fpz.unizg.hr/traffic/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/2334
 
Language:English
Work type:Scientific work
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:FL - Faculty of Logistic
Abstract:The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX) are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020). Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port.
Keywords:container throughput forecasting, ARIMAX model, dynamic factor analysis, exogenous macroeconomic indicators, time series analysis
Publication status:Published
Publication version:Version of Record
Year of publishing:2017
Number of pages:str. 529-542
Numbering:Letn. 29, št. 5
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-69224 New window
ISSN:0353-5320
UDC:658.6
ISSN on article:0353-5320
COBISS.SI-ID:512879421 New window
DOI:10.7307/ptt.v29i5.2334 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:6Q9FIQDK
Publication date in DKUM:12.12.2017
Views:2198
Downloads:445
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:Misc.
:
INTIHAR, Marko, KRAMBERGER, Tomaž and DRAGAN, Dejan, 2017, Container throughput forecasting using dynamic factor analysis and ARIMAX model. Promet [online]. 2017. Vol. 29, no. 5, p. 529–542. [Accessed 18 April 2025]. DOI 10.7307/ptt.v29i5.2334. Retrieved from: https://dk.um.si/IzpisGradiva.php?lang=eng&id=69224
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Promet
Shortened title:Promet
Publisher:Fakultet prometnih znanosti, Fakulteta za pomorstvo in promet, Universita degli studi di Trieste, Istituto per lo studio dei transporti nell'integrazione economica europea, Fakultet za saobračaj i komunikacije, Fakulta prevadzky a ekonomiky dopravy a spojov, Dopravni fakulta Jana Pernera
ISSN:0353-5320
COBISS.SI-ID:1416196 New window

Licences

License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:12.12.2017

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Title:Napovedovanje pretovora kontejnerjev s pomočjo dinamične faktorske analize in ARIMAX modela
Abstract:Glavni namen raziskave je preučevanje vpliva vključevanja makroekonomskih kazalnikov na natančnost napovedovanja modela za predikcijo pretovora kontejnerjev. V ta namen sta uporabljeni dinamična faktorska analiza in Avtoregresivni integracijski model časovnih vrst s premikajočim povprečjem in eksogeninimi vhodi (ARIMAX). Obeh metodologiji sta integrirani v okviru inovativne štiristopenjske hevristične procedure. V prvem koraku najprej izluščimo dinamične faktorje iz zunanjih makroekonomskih kazalcev, ki vplivajo na opazovan pretovor. Nato v drugem koraku tvorimo celo družino ARIMAX modelov različnih redov na podlagi prej identificiranih dinamičnih faktorjev. V tretjem koraku iz- vedemo diagnostično testiranje modela vključno z validacijo kakovosti prileganja napovedi danim realnim podatkom. V sklopu tretjega koraka preverimo številne statistične kriterije, kriterije ocene napake modela, informacijske kriterije, ter preverimo optimalnost strukture modela. V zadnjem koraku s posebno hevristiko izberemo najboljši model in ga preizkusimo na dejanskih podatkih pretovora kontejnerjev v Luki Koper. Rezultati kažejo, da z uporabo makroekonomskih kazalnikov v predikcijskem modelu lahko dosežemo bolj natančne napovedi pretovora kontejnerjev. Raziskava nas prepriča, da bi predlagani model lahko predstavljal koristno okrepitev obstoječega sistema za napovedovanje v opazovanem pristanišču.
Keywords:napovedovanje pretovora kontejnerjev, ARIMAX model, dinamična faktorska analiza, eksogeni makroekonomski indikatorji, analiza časovnih vrst


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