Vpliv šoka covida-19 na ameriško gospodarstvo in finančni trg

Sluga, Nuša

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Title:	Vpliv šoka covida-19 na ameriško gospodarstvo in finančni trg
Authors:	ID Sluga, Nuša (Author) ID Romih, Dejan (Mentor) More about this mentor... ID Taškar Beloglavec, Sabina (Comentor)
Files:	VS_Sluga_Nusa_2024.pdf (558,68 KB) MD5: 3824E1AC5D1DC098E4C58F81F83F63D7
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Diploma project paper
Typology:	2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:	EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:	V začetku leta 2020 so številne države razglasile izredne razmere, 11. marca 2020 pa je Svetovna zdravstvena organizacija (ang. World Health Organisation, v nadaljevanju WHO) razglasila pandemijo zaradi koronavirusne bolezni covid-19, ki se je konec leta 2019 pojavila v Vuhanu na Kitajskem in se bliskovito razširila na vse celine. Zdravstveni sistem se je soočal z iskanjem načinov testiranja, razvojem cepiva in načinov zdravljenja bolezni, vlade pa so se soočale z iskanjem možnosti za preprečevanje širjenja bolezni in podpore zdravstvenemu sistemu ter gospodarstvu. V delu diplomskega projekta smo raziskovali vpliv pandemije covida-19 na ameriško gospodarstvo in finančni trg ter ugotovili, da je pandemija covida-19 negativno vplivala tako na ameriško gospodarstvo kot na ameriški finančni trg. Prišlo je do obsežnih odpuščanj, zaradi ukrepov, ki so jih sprejele države. Ti ukrepi so bili začasno prenehanje delovanja podjetji, proizvodnje, storitev, ipd. To je vodilo najprej v recesijo, nato pa v najvišjo inflacijo v maju 2020 v Združenih državah Amerike (v nadaljevanju ZDA). Ameriško gospodarstvo je utrpelo najvišji letni upad bruto domačega proizvoda (v nadaljevanju BDP) po letu 1946, indeksi negotovosti so se zvišali in povzročili zmanjšano potrošnjo prebivalstva in podjetij. Tudi finančni trg je doživel šok, saj so borzni indeksi zelo hitro in rekordno padli. Ukrepi Ameriške centralne banke so vplivali na ponovno rast borznih indeksov, vsak naslednjii val oziroma izbruh pandemije covida-19 pa je povzročil hitrejše okrevanje. V delu diplomskega projekta smo testirali dve hipotezi in sicer, da je šok covida-19 negativno vplival na ameriško gospodarstvo in da je šok covida-19 negativno vplival na ameriški finančni trg. Obe hipotezi smo potrdili, saj smo ugotovili, da je pandemija negativno vplivala na zaupanje in negotovost med proizvajalci in potrošniki, posledično so rastli indeksi negotovosti, padel je BDP kot posledica upada zasebne in državne potrošnje. Preverjali smo tudi indekse S&P 500, indeks Dow Jones (angleško Dow Jones Industrial Average, v nadaljevanju DJIA) in Nasdaq-100 ter ugotovili, da so največji upad doživeli na začetku pandemije, najverjetneje zaradi povečane skrbi za zdravje in zmanjšanje gospodarske aktivnosti ter črnogledih napovedi. Vsi nadaljnji vali pandemije so na finančne trge vplivali manj, okrevanje pa je bilo hitrejše. Oblikovalcem politike smo predlagali reformiranje na področju pravočasnega prepoznavanja, preprečevanja in odzivanja na nove izredne situacije, kar bi prispevalo k zmanjšanju negativnih vplivov na zdravstveni in gospodarski sistem.
Keywords:	Pandemija, covid-19, finančni trgi, gospodarstvo, ameriško gospodarstvo, ameriški finančni trg, SARS-CoV-2.
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Publisher:	N. Sluga
Year of publishing:	2024
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-89172-890dc23e-2d17-635c-08d1-a0323c8250a3
UDC:	339.7:616-036.21
COBISS.SI-ID:	206540803
Publication date in DKUM:	05.09.2024
Views:	113
Downloads:	8
Metadata:
Categories:	EPF
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Licences

License:	CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Link:	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:	The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:	21.06.2024

Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	The impact of the covid-19 shock on the us economy and the financial market
Abstract:	At the beginning of 2020, many countries declared states of emergency, and on March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 pandemic. The disease, which emerged in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, rapidly spread across all continents. The healthcare system faced challenges in developing testing methods, vaccines, and treatments for the disease, while governments struggled to find ways to prevent its spread and support both the healthcare system and the economy. In this diploma project, we investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. economy and financial market, finding that the pandemic negatively affected both. There were extensive layoffs due to measures implemented by countries, such as the temporary shutdown of businesses, production, and services. This initially led to a recession, followed by the highest inflation rate in May 2020 in the United States. The U.S. economy suffered its largest annual GDP decline since 1946, and uncertainty indices increased, causing reduced consumer and business spending. The financial market also experienced a shock, with stock indices plummeting rapidly to record lows. Actions by the Federal Reserve contributed to the recovery of stock indices, and each subsequent wave or outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic led to quicker recoveries. In the diploma project, we tested two hypotheses: that the COVID-19 shock negatively affected the U.S. economy and that the COVID-19 shock negatively affected the U.S. financial market. We confirmed both hypotheses, finding that the pandemic negatively impacted confidence and increased uncertainty among producers and consumers, leading to rising uncertainty indices and a decline in GDP due to reduced private and government spending. We also examined the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and Nasdaq-100 indices, finding that they experienced their largest declines at the beginning of the pandemic, likely due to increased health concerns, reduced economic activity, and pessimistic forecasts. Subsequent waves of the pandemic had less impact on financial markets, with recoveries happening more quickly. We recommended policymakers reform early detection, prevention, and response mechanisms for new emergencies, which would help mitigate negative impacts on the healthcare and economic systems.
Keywords:	Pandemic, Covid-19, financial markets, economy, American economy, American financial market, SARS-CoV-2.

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