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Title:Vpliv lastniških sort na trg hmelja zda v letih od 2000 do 2020 vpliv lastniških sort na trg hmelja zda v letih od 2000 do 2020 : doktorska disertacija
Authors:ID MacKinnon, Douglas (Author)
ID Pavlovič, Martin (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
ID Rozman, Črtomir (Member of the commission for defense)
ID Bojnec, Štefan (Member of the commission for defense)
Files:.pdf DOK_Mackinnon_Douglas_2022.pdf (13,71 MB)
MD5: B30FB0183448BCACE1F8209F14133E73
PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/a26ae1ab-47c2-4cdb-9cc9-fc77bd60e591
 
Language:English
Work type:Doctoral dissertation
Typology:2.08 - Doctoral Dissertation
Organization:FKBV - Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences
Abstract:Analizirane so bile spremembe dinamike hmeljnega trga med letoma 1948 in 2020, da bi se vzpostavili izhodiščni rezultati in trendi v zvezi z razmerji med metriko industrije ZDA, kot so proizvodnja, zaloge, izpiranje zalog in povprečna cena sezone. Na podlagi edinstvenih tržnih načel je bilo izbranih pet podpopulacij podatkov. Korelacija z metodo Pearson in verjetnost vzročnih odnosov z uporabo Bayesijevega izreka med metriki industrije so bili izračunani tako, da so dokazali svojo evolucijo skozi čas v različnih obdobjih. Primerjave med obdobji so količinsko razčlenile stopnjo, na katero je do leta 2020 vplival hmeljski trg v ZDA. Vsaka spremenljivka je bila analizirana kot odvisna in neodvisna spremenljivka na načine, ki so merili njihov vpliv na dogodke prihodnjih let. To je omogočilo razvoj modela napovedi cen hmelja v ZDA. Z uporabo Indeksa Herfindahl-Hirschman je bilo zmanjšanje konkurenčnosti v industriji hmelja v ZDA zaradi povečanega lastnega deleža sort med letoma 2000 in 2020 količinsko razvrščeno. Dokumentirani so bili hmeljni kartel z vplivom na hektar, proizvodnjo, dobavo in ceno 70 odstotkov hmelja v zda do leta 2020. Napovedi za leta 2020 do leta 2025 so pokazale lastniško sortno prevlado 90 odstotkov industrije ZDA do leta 2025 z 80 odstotki akrila ZDA pod vplivom enega podjetja. Ugotovljeni so bili dokazi za zakasnitev presežnega odziva (DSR), metodo, s katero se razvija disekvilibrij na trgu hmelja in so bili izpostavljeni podatki, ki dokazujejo njegove učinke med letoma 1948 in 2000. Njena odsotnost v obdobju hitre rasti lastnih sort je ponudila dokaze o obstoju in moči kartela. Hmeljsko ravnotežje (HER) je bila predstavljena metoda za določanje tržnega ravnotežja ZDA in njenih učinkov na količinsko napoved cen. Razpravljalo se je o vplivu cen na obstoj hmeljskega kartela, stroških izgub mrtve teže in morebitnih učinkih doganjanja med trgovci in pridelovalci.
Keywords:Hmelj, Ravnotežje, Intelektualna lastnina, Lastniški sorti, Konkurenca, Oligopsony, Bayesian, Pearson, Herfindahl-Hirschman, Kartel.
Place of publishing:Maribor
Place of performance:Maribor
Publisher:[D. MacKinnon]
Year of publishing:2022
Number of pages:XVI, 237 f.
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-81513 New window
UDC:633.791:339.13.021(73)(043.3)=111
COBISS.SI-ID:106950403 New window
Publication date in DKUM:09.05.2022
Views:1053
Downloads:75
Metadata:XML DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:FKBV
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Licences

License:CC BY-SA 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
Description:This Creative Commons license is very similar to the regular Attribution license, but requires the release of all derivative works under this same license.
Licensing start date:06.04.2022

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Title:The impact of proprietary varieties on the u.s. hop market 2000-2020 : Ph. d. research
Abstract:Changes in U.S. hop market dynamics between 1948 and 2020 were analyzed to establish baseline results and trends regarding the relationships between U.S. industry metrics such as production, stocks, stock depletion and season average price. Five data subpopulations were chosen based on unique market principles. The correlation using the Pearson method and the probability of causal relationships using the Bayesian theorem between industry metrics were calculated in such a way to demonstrate their evolution over time within the different periods. Comparisons between periods quantified the degree to which the U.S. hop market was influenced by the existence of intellectual property by 2020. Each variable was analyzed as both a dependent and independent variable in ways that measured their impact upon the events of future years. This enabled the development of a model for forecasting U.S. hop prices. Using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, the reduction of the competitiveness in the U.S. hop industry due to increased proprietary variety acreage between 2000 and 2020 was quantified. A hop cartel with influence over the acreage, production, supply and price of 70 percent of the U.S. hop industry by 2020 was documented. Forecasts for the years 2020 through 2025 demonstrated proprietary variety dominance of 90 percent of the U.S. industry by 2025 with 80 percent of U.S. acreage under the influence of one company. Evidence for the Delayed Surplus Response (DSR), a method by which disequilibrium in the hop market develops was identified and data demonstrating its effects between 1948 and 2000 were highlighted. Its absence during the period of rapid proprietary variety growth offered evidence regarding the existence and power of a cartel. The Hop Equilibrium Ratio (HER), a method for determining U.S. market equilibrium was presented and its effects upon price forecasting quantified. Price influence stemming from the existence of a hop cartel, the cost of deadweight losses and the potential effects of collusion between merchants and growers were discussed.
Keywords:Hops, Equilibrium, Intellectual property, Proprietary varieties, Competition, Oligopsony, Bayesian, Pearson, Herfindahl-Hirschman, Cartel


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