Vpliv bodočega podnebja na uspevanje oljke ( Olea europea ) na vzhodni jadranski obali (Slovenija, Hrvaška)

Lorenčič, Iztok

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Title:	Vpliv bodočega podnebja na uspevanje oljke ( Olea europea ) na vzhodni jadranski obali (Slovenija, Hrvaška)
Authors:	ID Lorenčič, Iztok (Author) ID Ivajnšič, Danijel (Mentor) More about this mentor... ID Kaligarič, Mitja (Comentor)
Files:	MAG_Lorencic_Iztok_2019.pdf (2,78 MB) MD5: B7FD3945A7A769E4B26CAD266E65DCC7 PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/23af0b92-ade8-415d-82f2-60c187423668
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Master's thesis/paper
Typology:	2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:	FNM - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
Abstract:	Povzetek V okolju delujejo številni dejavniki, ki vplivajo na življenjske procese in razvoj oljke. Pomembni dejavniki, ki oblikujejo podnebne razmere okolja so temperatura, voda (padavine in vlaga v ozračju in tleh), svetloba in vetrovi. Oljka je rastlina sredozemskega podnebja, za katero so značilne mile zime in topla in suha poletja. Spremljanje podnebnih razmer, ki ustrezajo oljki, pa je bistvenega pomena pri preučevanju možnosti njene razširjenosti. Oljčna pridelava je ranljiv kmetijski sistem, ki je primeren za študij prilagodljivost na podnebne spremembe zaradi dolge življenjske dobe oljčnega drevesa, njegove občutljivosti na sušo in visoke temperature in vse večje vloge oljčnih nasadov, ki jih imajo v gospodarstvu v sredozemskih območjih. V Sredozemlju podnebni scenariji predvidevajo povišanje povprečne temperature zraka in večje število skrajnih (ektremnih) vremenskih pojavov, predvsem pa zmanjšanje količine padavin. Oljka se bo v prihodnjih desetletjih soočala z podnebnimi spremembami v Sredozemlju in pričakovati je, da se bodo njene obdelovalne površine prilagodile v skladu predvideni klimatskimi spremembami. S pomočjo modelov smo ugotavljali, kakšna je primernost habitata za gojenje oljk v Sloveniji in na Hrvaškem. S to raziskavo smo želeli ugotoviti vpliv bioklimatskih spremenljivk na razširjenost oljčnikov v Sloveniji in na Hrvaškem, oceniti in ovrednotiti bodoče podnebne pogoje za gojenje oljk v Sloveniji in na Hrvaškem, zaznati variabilnost modelnih podnebnih napovedi na primeru oljčnikov in identificirati bodoča ustrezna in neustrezna območja za gojenje oljk v Sloveniji in na Hrvaškem. Z uporabo programa TerrSet, bioklimatskih spremenljivk iz baze WorldClim in zbranih podatkov o pojavljanju vrste smo izdelali model razširjenosti oljk na vzhodni jadranski obali Slovenije in Hrvaške, za sedanjost in dva scenarija za leto 2070 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Uporabili smo modela Mahalonobis typicality (MT) in Crop Climate Suitability (CCS). Podatke o razširjenosti oljčnikov v Sloveniji smo pridobili s pomočjo podatkov o rabi tal za leto 2016, ki so dostopni na spletnem portalu Ministrstva za kmetijstvo, gozdarstvo in prehrano, za podatke o pojavljanju vrste na Hrvaškem pa smo uporabili karto zemljišč negozdnih habitatov Hrvaške (http://www.iszp.hr/gis/ 20.3.2019). Iz naših rezultatov zelo težko napovemo ali bo v prihodnosti več primernih območjii za gojenje oljk, saj modela napovedujeta precej različno stanje. Model MT napoveduje zmanjšanje površine območij z najvišjo stopnjo primernosti po obeh scenarijih, vendar se bo zelo zmanjšala tudi površina območji s najnižjo stopnjo primernosti po pesimističnem scenariju. Model CCS napoveduje širjenje primernih habitatov proti notranjosti. Ugotovimo lahko, da nam scenarija RCP4.5 in RCP8.5 kažeta precej različno sliko. Predvsem po modelu MT je razlika precej bolj opazna v severnejših predelih, kjer pa rezultati niso v skladu z našimi pričakovanji, saj se primerna območja zelo skrčijo. CCS model pa ravno nasprotno kot model MT največje razlike kaže na južnejših obalnih predelih severne Dalmacije na meji s srednjo Dalmacijo, kjer bo v prihodnosti več primernih območji in se bodo širila proti notranjosti. Dolgoročne klimatske napovedi so lahko dokaj nezanesljive, še zlasti bodoči scenariji podnebja v regionalni prostorski skali. Za natančnejše napovedi primernih habitatov za gojenje oljke bi bile potrebne bolj poglobljene analize na regionalni ravni. Prav gotovo bo oljkam v prihodnosti ustrezalo toplejše ozračje, vendar pa je problematika večplastna.
Keywords:	Oljka (Olea europea), modeli razširjenosti vrst, potencialna razširjenost, primernost habitata, MT, CCS, klimatske spremembe, vzhodna jadranska obala.
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Publisher:	[I. Lorenčič]
Year of publishing:	2019
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-73662
UDC:	581.9:[582.946.2:551.583](262.3-11)(043.2)
COBISS.SI-ID:	24721160
NUK URN:	URN:SI:UM:DK:FMJ3HKVE
Publication date in DKUM:	04.02.2021
Views:	1187
Downloads:	73
Metadata:
Categories:	FNM
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Licences

License:	CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Link:	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:	The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:	30.05.2019

Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	Climate change impacts on the cultivation of olives ( Olea europea ) in the Eastern Adriatic (Slovenia, Croatia)
Abstract:	Abstract There are many factors in the environment which effect life processes and development of olives (Olea europaea). Relevant factors that define the climatic conditions of the environment are temperature, water (precipitation and humidity in the atmosphere and on the ground), light and winds. Olives typically grow in the Mediterranean climate which is characterized by mild winters and warm and dry summers. Monitoring climate conditions that suit olives is of crucial importance when studying their potential growing area. Cultivation of olives is a vulnerable farming system which is suitable for the study of adaptability to climate changes due to its longevity, sensitivity to drought and high temperatures, and due to the increasing role of olive orchards in the economies of the Mediterranean areas. In the Mediterranean, climate scenarios anticipate an increase of average air temperature, a higher number of extreme weather events and, mainly, precipitation decrease. In the next decades, olives are going to face climate changes, and it is expected that its agricultural areas will be adapted in accordance with the anticipated climate changes. With the help of different models, we tried to identify the suitability of the habitat used for olive growing in Slovenia and Croatia. This research was intended to help us assess the influence of bioclimatic variables to the growing area of olive orchards in Slovenia and Croatia, assess and evaluate future climate conditions for olive growing in Slovenia and Croatia, detect the variability of model climate projections on the example of olive orchards, and identify future suitable and unsuitable olive growing areas in Slovenia and Croatia. With the use of TerrSet computer software, bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database and the data which was gathered about species occurrence, we built a model of the olive distribution in the eastern Adriatic coast of Slovenia and Croatia – one for the current situation and two scenarios for the year 2070 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). We used models Mahalonobis typicality (MT) and Crop Climate Suitability (CSS). Data on the growing area of olive orchards in Slovenia were gathered with the help of land use data for the year 2016 which are accessible on the website of Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food. Data on the species occurrence in Croatia were gathered with the help of the map of Croatian unforested habitats (http://www.iszp.hr/gis/). Based on our results, it is quite difficult to predict whether a larger quantity of suitable areas for olive growing will be available in the future, as the two models predict very different situations. MT model predicts a shrinking of the areas with the highest degree of suitability according to both scenarios and, additionally, a large shrinking of the areas with the lowest degree of suitability according to the pessimistic scenario. The CSS model predicts an expansion of suitable habitats towards the hinterland. We can establish that the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show two very different pictures. If we look at the MT model, the difference is much more noticeable in the northern areas, where, however, the results are not in line with our expectations due to the prediction of a large shrinking of suitable areas. Conversely, the CSS model shows the biggest differences in the southern coastal areas on the border between northern and central Dalmatia, where it predicts that, in the future, there will be more suitable areas which will expand towards the hinterland. Long-term climate predictions, especially future climate scenarios in a regional scale, can be relatively unreliable. In order to produce more accurate predictions of suitable olive growing habitats, deeper analyses should be conducted on the regional level. While it is certain that, in the future, olives will benefit from the warmer atmosphere, the problematic remains multifaceted.
Keywords:	Olive tree (Olea europea), species distribution models, potencial distribution, habitat suitability, MT, CCS, climate change, Eastern Adriatic.

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