Povezava med obsegom kreditne aktivnosti ter kreditnimi standardi in kreditnimi pogoji

Celcer, Sanja

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Title:	Povezava med obsegom kreditne aktivnosti ter kreditnimi standardi in kreditnimi pogoji
Authors:	ID Celcer, Sanja (Author) ID Dajčman, Silvo (Mentor) More about this mentor...
Files:	MAG_Celcer_Sanja_2018.pdf (2,81 MB) MD5: D84547FBCEBD10E2ED810DAB8CFF9D29 PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/6e869cab-5bdf-4f31-a076-e4d79644e447
Language:	Slovenian
Work type:	Master's thesis/paper
Typology:	2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:	EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:	Učinkovitost kreditnega trga je lahko zaradi tržnih nepopolnosti, kot je na primer problem informacijske asimetrije, pogosto ogrožena, saj asimetrična porazdelitev informacij med drugim otežuje proces financiranja najbolj donosnih investicijskih priložnosti oz. projektov. Informacije so bistven element v kreditnem procesu, zato banke velikokrat poslujejo in sprejemajo odločitve o odobritvi ali zavrnitvi kreditnih prošenj v pogojih negotovosti in s tveganjem. Posledično banke v želji po ustrezni oceni kreditne sposobnosti potencialnih posojilojemalcev in pred ustrezno odločitvijo o ponudbi posameznih posojil in njihovih pogojih sprejmejo kreditne standarde in določijo kreditne pogoje, pod katerimi so dejansko pripravljene odobriti posojilo. Kreditni standardi predstavljajo interna merila za odobritev bančnih posojil in odražajo posojilno politiko bank, medtem ko so kreditni pogoji del dejanskega izvajanja kreditne politike. V magistrski nalogi proučujemo povezave med spreminjanjem kreditnih standardov in kreditnih pogojev ter stopnjo rasti obsega novoodobrenih bančnih posojil za nefinančni podjetniški sektor v evroobmočju kot tudi povezave med kreditnimi standardi in kreditnimi pogoji za nefinančni podjetniški sektor v evroobmočju v obdobju od prvega četrtletja 2003 do četrtega četrtletja 2017. Ker banke zaradi nepopolnosti na kreditnem trgu sprejemajo odločitve o odobritvi ali zavrnitvi kreditnega zahtevka v pogojih negotovosti in s tveganjem, zlasti v obdobju finančnih pretresov, nas je zanimalo tudi, ali so banke po začetku globalne finančne krize začele kreditne standarde in kreditne pogoje za nefinančni podjetniški sektor v evroobmočju zaostrovati. Ne nazadnje zaradi prociklične narave kreditne aktivnosti bank proučujemo tudi povezavi med rastjo realnega BDP in spreminjanjem kreditnih standardov ter obsegom novoodobrenih bančnih posojil za nefinančni podjetniški sektor v evroobmočju v obdobju od prvega četrtletja 2003 do četrtega četrtletja 2017. Na osnovi rezultatov empiričnega preverjanja zastavljenih hipotez izpostavljamo šest ključnih ugotovitev magistrskega dela. Ugotavljamo, da med spreminjanjem kreditnih standardov in kreditnih pogojev ter stopnjo rasti obsega novoodobrenih bančnih posojil obstaja šibko izražena negativna, vendar statistično neznačilna povezava, zato negativne korelacije med zadevnimi spremenljivkami ni mogoče statistično značilno potrditi. Ugotavljamo tudi, da med spreminjanjem kreditnih standardov in dejavnikov kreditnih pogojev obstaja pozitivna in statistično značilna povezava, kar lahko potrdimo s kar enoodstotnim tveganjem. Prav tako ugotavljamo, da obstaja med spreminjanjem kreditnih standardov in stopnjo rasti realnega BDP statistično značilno negativna in srednje močna povezava, kar lahko potrdimo z enoodstotnim tveganjem. Statistično neznačilno, a šibko in pozitivno povezavo pa je mogoče ugotoviti med stopnjo rasti obsega novoodobrenih bančnih posojil in stopnjo rasti realnega BDP. Dokazali smo tudi, da so po začetku globalne finančne krize banke začele zaostrovati kreditne standarde in kreditne pogoje za nefinančni podjetniški sektor v evroobmočju.
Keywords:	informacijska asimetrija (negativna selekcija in moralno tveganje), kreditno racioniranje, kreditni standardi, kreditni pogoji, anketa o bančnih posojilih, korelacijska analiza, kreditna aktivnost bank.
Place of publishing:	Maribor
Publisher:	[S. Celcer]
Year of publishing:	2018
PID:	20.500.12556/DKUM-71933
UDC:	336.77
COBISS.SI-ID:	13182236
NUK URN:	URN:SI:UM:DK:WBKFVIQT
Publication date in DKUM:	21.11.2018
Views:	1428
Downloads:	236
Metadata:
Categories:	EPF
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Licences

License:	CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Link:	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:	The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:	04.09.2018

Secondary language

Language:	English
Title:	Relationship Between Bank Lending Activity and Credit Standards and Credit Terms
Abstract:	The effectiveness of the credit market may be, due to market failures, such as for example the problem of information asymmetry, often undermined, as the asymmetric distribution of information among others makes it difficult to finance the most profitable investment opportunities or projects. Information is an essential element in the credit process, so banks often do business and take decisions on approving or rejecting credit applications under uncertainty and risk conditions. As a result, banks, if they wish to adequately assess the creditworthiness of potential borrowers and before the appropriate decision on the offer of individual loans and their terms, adopt credit standards and determine the credit conditions under which they are actually prepared to grant the loan. Credit standards represent internal criteria for granting bank loans and reflect the lending policy of banks, while credit terms and conditions form part of the actual execution of the credit policy. In the master's thesis, we study the relationships between changing credit standards and credit conditions and the growth rate of the volume of newly approved bank loans (new business volumes) for the non-financial corporations in the euro area as well as the relationships between credit standards and credit conditions for the non-financial corporations in the euro area in the period from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2017. As banks due to credit market failures take decisions on approving or rejecting credit applications under uncertainty and risk conditions, especially during the period of financial turmoil, we were also interested in whether the banks after the onset of the global financial crisis began to tighten credit standards and credit conditions for the non-financial corporate sector in the euro area. After all, due to the pro-cyclical nature of the lending activities of the banks, we are also examining the relationships between the growth of real GDP and credit standards and the volume of newly approved bank loans (new business volumes) for the non-financial corporations in the euro area in the period from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2017. Based on the results of the empirical verification of hypotheses, we highlight six key findings of the master's thesis. We note that there is a weak negative but statistically insignificant correlation between the change in credit standards or credit conditions and the growth rate of the volume of newly approved bank loans, therefore it is not statistically significant to confirm the negative correlations between the relevant variables. We also note that there is a positive and statistically significant correlation between changing credit standards and credit conditions factors, which can be confirmed with even a one percent chance risk. We also find that there is a statistically significant negative and medium strong correlation between the change in credit standards and the growth rate of real GDP, which can be confirmed with a one-percent risk. Statistically insignificant, but a weak and positive correlation can be found between the growth rate of the volume of newly approved bank loans and the growth rate of real GDP. We also proved that after the start of the global financial crisis, banks began to tighten credit standards and credit conditions for the non-financial corporations in the euro area.
Keywords:	asymmetric information (adverse selection and moral hazard), credit rationing, credit standards, credit terms and conditions, bank lending survey, correlation analysis, bank lending activity.

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