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Title:Understanding the structural complexity of induced travel demand in decision-making : a system dynamics approach
Authors:Angarita-Zapata, Juan (Author)
Parra-Valencia, Jorge (Author)
Andrade-Sosa, Hugo (Author)
Files:.pdf Organizacija_2016_Angarita-Zapata,_Parra-Valencia,_Andrade-Sosa_Understanding_the_Structural_Complexity_of_Induced_Travel_Demand_in_Deci.pdf (1,96 MB)
MD5: 6E2B680D64CC6119FDAA019FF794E15F
 
URL https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/orga.2016.49.issue-3/orga-2016-0013/orga-2016-0013.xml
 
Language:English
Work type:Scientific work (r2)
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:FOV - Faculty of Organizational Sciences in Kranj
Abstract:Background and purpose: Induced travel demand (ITD) is a phenomenon where road construction increases vehicles’ kilometers traveled. It has been approached with econometric models that use elasticities as measure to estimate how much travel demand can be induced by new roads. However, there is a lack of “white-box” models with causal hypotheses that explain the structural complexity underlying this phenomenon. We propose a system dynamics model based on a feedback mechanism to explain structurally ITD. Methodology: A system dynamics methodology was selected to model and simulate ITD. First, a causal loop diagram is proposed to describe the ITD structure in terms of feedback loops. Then a stock-flows diagram is formulated to allow computer simulation. Finally, simulations are run to show the quantitative temporal evolution of the model built. Results: The simulation results show how new roads in the short term induce more kilometers traveled by vehicles already in use; meanwhile, in the medium-term, new traffic is generated. These new car drivers appear when better flow conditions coming from new roads increase attractiveness of car use. More cars added to vehicles already in use produce new traffic congestion, and high travel speeds provided by roads built are absorbed by ITD effects. Conclusion: We concluded that approaching ITD with a systemic perspective allows for identifying leverage points that contribute to design comprehensive policies aimed to cope with ITD. In this sense, the model supports decision- making processes in urban contexts wherein it is still necessary for road construction to guarantee connectivity, such as the case of developing countries.
Keywords:induced travel demand, system dynamics, decision-making, dynamic modeling
Year of publishing:2016
Number of pages:str. 129-144
Numbering:št. 3, Letn. 49
ISSN:1318-5454
UDC:656.11.021.5:519.863
ISSN on article:1318-5454
COBISS_ID:286489344 New window
DOI:10.1515/orga-2016-0013 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:LTUZBI0W
Views:573
Downloads:87
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Organizacija
Publisher:Fakulteta za organizacijske vede Univerze v Mariboru, Založba Moderna organizacija, Sciendo
ISSN:1318-5454
COBISS.SI-ID:610909 New window

Licences

License:CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:23.01.2018

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Title:Analiza strukturne kompleksnosti povpraševanja po povzročenih potovanjih pri odločanju : pristop sistemske dinamike
Abstract:Ozadje in namen: Povpraševanje po povzročenih potovanjih (ang: induced travel demand, ITD) je pojav, kjer se izgradnjo cest povečuje prevoženih kilometrov na vozilo. ITD navadno analizirajo z ekonometričnimi modeli, ki up­orabljajo elastičnost za oceno koliko povpraševanja po povzročenih potovanjih lahko povzroči gradnja novih cest. V literaturi ne najdemo modelov »bele škratlje« z vzročno hipotezo, ki bi pojasnjevali strukturno kompleksnost tega pojava. V članku predlagamo model sistemske dinamike, ki temelji na mehanizmu povratne informacije, da pojasni strukturo ITD. Metodologija: Za modeliranje in simulacijo ITD smo uporabili metodologijo sistemske dinamike. Najprej smo izdelali diagram strukture ITD v smislu povratnih zank. Nato smo oblikovali diagram zalog in tokov, da smo lahko uporabili računalniško simulacijo. Na koncu smo izvedli simulacijo kvantitativno časovnega razvoja modela. Rezultati: Rezultati simulacije kažejo, kako nove ceste v kratkem času povzročajo več prevoženih kilometrov pri vo­zilih, ki so že v uporabi; v srednjeročnem obdobju pa povzročijo nastanek novega prometa. Pojavljajo se novi vozniki avtomobilov se pojavijo, ker boljši pogoji pretoka zaradi novih cest povečajo privlačnost uporabe avtomobila. Več novih avtomobilov skupaj z vozili, ki so že v uporabi, povzročijo prometne zastoje. Povečana hitrost potovanja, ki jo omogočajo zgrajene ceste, je omejena zaradi ITD učinkov. Zaključek: Pristop k analizi ITD s sistemskega vidika sistemskega omogoča ugotavljate finančno ravnovesje in prispeva k oblikovanju celovite politike obvladovanja ITD. V tem smislu je model podpira procese odločanja v urbanih okoljih, kjer se odloča o gradnji cest z namenom, da se zagotovi povezljivost znotraj države, na primer v državah v razvoju.
Keywords:prometna infrastruktura, cestni promet, organizacija, ceste, prometnice, cestno omrežje, gradnja, modeli, simulacija


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  1. Organizacija

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