| Title: | Container throughput forecasting using dynamic factor analysis and ARIMAX model |
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| Authors: | ID Intihar, Marko (Author)
ID Kramberger, Tomaž (Author)
ID Dragan, Dejan (Author) |
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| Files: |  PROMET_2017_Intihar,_Kramberger,_Dragan_Container_Throughput_Forecasting_Using_Dynamic_Factor_Analysis_and_ARIMAX_Model.pdf (1,33 MB)
MD5: 32924E112289679B636F5B464FA88B5C
PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/f4fa8f47-f5db-452e-aa92-39ed60f878d7
 http://www.fpz.unizg.hr/traffic/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/2334
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| Language: | English |
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| Work type: | Scientific work |
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| Typology: | 1.01 - Original Scientific Article |
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| Organization: | FL - Faculty of Logistic
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| Abstract: | The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX) are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020). Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port. |
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| Keywords: | container throughput forecasting, ARIMAX model, dynamic factor analysis, exogenous macroeconomic indicators, time series analysis |
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| Publication status: | Published |
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| Publication version: | Version of Record |
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| Year of publishing: | 2017 |
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| Number of pages: | str. 529-542 |
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| Numbering: | Letn. 29, št. 5 |
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| PID: | 20.500.12556/DKUM-69224  |
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| ISSN: | 0353-5320 |
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| UDC: | 658.6 |
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| ISSN on article: | 0353-5320 |
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| COBISS.SI-ID: | 512879421 |
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| DOI: | 10.7307/ptt.v29i5.2334 |
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| NUK URN: | URN:SI:UM:DK:6Q9FIQDK |
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| Publication date in DKUM: | 12.12.2017 |
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| Views: | 2198 |
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| Downloads: | 464 |
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| Metadata: |    |
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| Categories: | Misc.
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