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Title:Assessment of cassava supply response in Nigeria using vector error correction model (VECM)
Authors:Obayelu, Oluwakemi Adeola (Author)
Ebute, Samuel (Author)
Files:.pdf Agricultura_2016_Obayelu,_Ebute_Assessment_of_cassava_supply_response_in_Nigeria_using_vector_error_correction_model_(VECM).pdf (426,03 KB)
 
URL http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/agricultura.2016.13.issue-1-2/agricultura-2017-0010/agricultura-2017-0010.xml
 
Language:English
Work type:Scientific work (r2)
Typology:1.01 - Original Scientific Article
Organization:FKBV - Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences
Abstract:The response of agricultural commodities to changes in price is an important factor in the success of any reform programme in agricultural sector of Nigeria. The producers of traditional agricultural commodities, such as cassava, face the world market directly. Consequently, the producer price of cassava has become unstable, which is a disincentive for both its production and trade. This study investigated cassava supply response to changes in price. Data collected from FAOSTAT from 1966 to 2010 were analysed using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results of the VECM for the estimation of short run adjustment of the variables toward their long run relationship showed a linear deterministic trend in the data and that Area cultivated and own prices jointly explained 74% and 63% of the variation in the Nigeria cassava output in the short run and long-run respectively. Cassava prices (P<0.001) and land cultivated (P<0.1) had positive influence on cassava supply in the short-run. The short-run price elasticity was 0.38 indicating that price policies were effective in the short-run promotion of cassava production in Nigeria. However, in the long-run elasticity cassava was not responsive to price incentives significantly. This suggests that price policies are not effective in the long-run promotion of cassava production in the country owing to instability in governance and government policies.
Keywords:price, co-integration, trend analysis, change in cassava supply
Year of publishing:2016
Number of pages:str. 79-86
Numbering:št. 1/2, Letn. 13
ISSN:1581-5439
UDC:339.13:633.493
ISSN on article:1581-5439
COBISS_ID:4319276 Link is opened in a new window
DOI:10.1515/agricultura-2017-0010 Link is opened in a new window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:G1R2LAB7
License:CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
This work is available under this license: Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives 4.0 International
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Downloads:194
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Agricultura
Publisher:Fakulteta za kmetijstvo in biosistemske vede Univerze v Mariboru, Sciendo
ISSN:1580-8432
COBISS.SI-ID:116855808 New window

Secondary language

Language:Slovenian
Title:Ocena odziva ponudbe/oskrbe s kasavo v Nigeriji z uporabo modela za vektorsko popravljanje napak (VECM)
Abstract:Odziv kmetijske proizvodnje na spremembe cen je pomemben dejavnik pri uspehu kateregakoli programa reform v kmetijskem sektorju v Nigeriji. Proizvajalci tradicionalnih kmetijskih proizvodov, kot je na primer kasava, se neposredno soočajo s svetovnim trgom. Posledica je nestabilna cena kasave, kar neugodno vpliva na pridelavo in trženje/prodajo kasave. Cilj raziskave je bil preučiti odziv ponudbe/oskrbe s kasavo na spremembe v ceni. Podatki, zbrani iz baze FAOSTAT za obdobje 1966 do 2010, so bili analizirali z modelom za vektorsko popravljanje napak (VECM). Rezultati analize VECM za oceno kratkoročne prilagoditve spremenljivk v smeri njihove dolgoročne povezanosti/razmerja so pokazali linearno deterministični trend v podatkih ter da obdelane površine in lastna cena skupaj kratkoročno in dolgoročno razložita 74% in 63% variabilnosti proizvodnje kasave v Nigeriji. Cene kasave (P < 0,001) in obdelana zemljišča (P < 0,1) imajo pozitiven vpliv na kratkoročno oskrbo s kasavo. Kratkoročna elastičnost cene je bila 0,38, kar kaže na to, da je bila cenovna politika učinkovita pri kratkoročnem spodbujanju proizvodnje kasave v Nigeriji. Po drugi strani pa pri dolgoročni elastičnosti ni bila ugotovljena značilna odzivnost kasave na cenovne spodbude. Na osnovi rezultatov domnevamo, da cenovna politika ni učinkovita pri dolgoročnem vzpodbujanju pridelave kasave v državi zaradi nestabilnosti vlade in vladne politike.
Keywords:cena, kointegracija, analiza trenda, spremembe v oskrbi s kasavo


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  1. Agricultura

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