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Title:Potencialna razširjenost jelke (Abies alba) v jugovzhodno-alpskem in dinarskem fitogeografskem območju Slovenije in Hrvaške v luči klimatskih sprememb
Authors:ID Kožuh, Aljaž (Author)
ID Kaligarič, Mitja (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
ID Ivajnšič, Danijel (Co-mentor)
Files:.pdf MAG_Kozuh_Aljaz_2017.pdf (3,79 MB)
MD5: 16D17FDD5B804FB26F06927CCDA65FC3
PID: 20.500.12556/dkum/d81536b6-681b-4847-ac85-d374668447d6
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Master's thesis/paper (mb22)
Typology:2.09 - Master's Thesis
Organization:FNM - Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics
Abstract:V zadnjih desetletjih postajajo vse bolj pereča tema klimatske spremembe ter njihov vpliv na okolje in biosfero. Zelo pogoste so napovedi o dvigu globalne povprečne letne temperature ter večji pogostosti in intenzivnosti vremenskih ekstremov. To bo prav gotovo imelo opazen vpliv tako na človeško družbo, kot na vse ostale organizme ki bivajo na tem planetu. S to raziskavo smo želeli ugotoviti njihov vpliv na potencialno razširjenost (bele) jelke (Abies alba) pri nas. Za območje raziskave smo izbrali alpsko fitogeografsko regijo Slovenije ter dinarsko fitogeografsko regijo Slovenije in Hrvaške, saj je tam jelka pri nas najbolj pogosta. Že danes je opazno krčenje areala jelke na južnem območju razširjenosti zaradi vse intenzivnejših poletnih suš in vročine v Mediteranu ter širjenje areala proti severovzhodu zaradi toplejše klime in milejših zim kontinentalne Evrope. Vpliv klimatskih sprememb na potencialno razširjenost smo želeli ponazoriti s pomočjo ekološkega modeliranja. Vzeli smo prostorske podatke o razširjenosti jelke v Sloveniji in na Hrvaškem ter okoljske spremenljivke (nadmorska višina in bioklimatske spremenljivke) za današnje stanje in štiri prihodnje scenarije na podlagi štirih različnih možnih reprezentativnih koncentracij toplogrednih plinov (RCP). Te podatke smo obdelali s pomočjo GIS orodij ter nato izvedli modeliranje z modelom Mahalonobisova tipičnost (Mahalonobis) in Maksimalna entropija (Maxent), s pomočjo katerih smo želeli napovedati primernost habitata za jelko danes in v primeru vseh štirih prihodnjih scenarijev. Rezultati niso pokazali večjih sprememb v primernosti habitata v obeh regijah. Primernost habitata naj bi se nekoliko povečala, v osrednjem in zahodnem delu alpske regije najbolj ob bolj optimističnih scenarijih (RCP2.6 in RCP4.5), na Pohorju in v Dinarski regiji pa ob bolj pesimističnih scenarijih (RCP6.0 in RCP8.5). Izrazitejše izboljšanje primernosti habitata pa bodo najbrž vseeno zavrli vse intenzivnejši vremenski ekstremi (poletna suša in vročina, zimski mraz, vremenske ujme). Zaradi zavrtja vplivov Mediterana s stani gorskih barier na jugozahodnem robu obeh regij bo sprememba areala in primernosti habitata jelke najbrž bolj podobna tistim v notranjosti celine, ki predvidevajo širjenje areala in boljše uspevanje jelke zaradi toplejše klime in milejših zim, kot tistim v Mediteranu, ki predvidevajo krčenje areala zaradi vse pogostejših in intenzivnejši poletnih suš in vročine. Točnost modelov in reprezentativnost rezultatov nekoliko omejujejo groba resolucija in popačenost bioklimatskih podatkov na regionalni ravni ter različna gostota podatkov o razširjenosti jelke na obeh straneh meje. Za boljši model se je izkazal Mahalonobis, saj Maxent slabo operira s tovrstnimi tipi prostorskih podatkov.
Keywords:alpska fitogeografska regija, dinarska fitogeografska regija, ekološko modeliranje, jelka, klimatske spremembe, potencialna razširjenost, primernost habitata, RCP, sprememba areala
Year of publishing:2017
Publisher:[A. Kožuh]
Source:Maribor
PID:20.500.12556/DKUM-66688 New window
UDC:582.475.7:581.9(043.2)
COBISS.SI-ID:23334408 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:J50MOPEF
Publication date in DKUM:19.09.2017
Views:1031
Downloads:260
Metadata:XML RDF-CHPDL DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:FNM
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Licences

License:CC BY-NC-ND 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Description:The most restrictive Creative Commons license. This only allows people to download and share the work for no commercial gain and for no other purposes.
Licensing start date:06.07.2017

Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Potential distribution of silver fir (Abies alba) in south-eastern alpine and dinaric phytogeographic region of Slovenia and Croatia in the light of climate change
Abstract:During the last few decades climate change and its influence on global environment is becoming more and more importan topic. Predictions about the rise of global average annual temperature and more and more common and intensive weather extremes are a part of everyday news. Those change will certainly have a very noticeable influence on human society and all other living organisms of our planet. We decided for this research to demonstrate their influence on potencial distribution of silver fir (Abies alba) in Slovenia and Croatia. We chose alpine phytogeogaphic region of Slovenia and dinaric phytogeogaphic region of Croatia for this research because silver fir is most common there in Slovenia and Croatia. In Southern Europe decline of silver fir due to summer droughts and heat has already been observed as well as spreading of its range towards north-east in continental Euope due to warmer climate and more and more mild winters. We studied the influence of climate change on potencial distribution of silver fir with ecological modeling. We took spatial data of silver fir distribution in Slovenia and Croatia and environmental data (altitude and bioclimatic data) for present and four diferent scenarios of representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP) for the future. We worked with this data with the help of GIS sofware and used models Mahalonobis Typicality and Maxent to predict habitat suitability for present and every future scenario by modeling. The results showed no major change of habitat suitability for both regions. Habitat suiability should slightly rise, in central and western part of Alpine region more by optimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5), on Pohorje and in Dinaric region more by pessimistic scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). More distinctive change of habitat suitability would be probably suppressed by weather extremes (summer drought and heat, cold winte periods, extreme weather phenomena). Due to suppressed mediteranean climate effect by mountain chains on the south-west border of both regions changes of spatial distribution and habitat suitability will probably be more similar to those in continental europe, which anticipate speading of fir range and better growth due to warmer climate and more mild winters, than those in southern Europe, which anticipate decline of fir range due to more and more common summer droughts and heat. Model accuracy and representativity of results are restriced by rough resolution and weak accuracy of spatial bioclimatic data on regional scale and diferent density of spatial fir distribution data for both countries. Mahalonobis turned out to be better model than Maxent for prediction operating with this kind of spatial data.
Keywords:alpine phytogeographic region, climate change, dinaric phytogeographic region, ecological modeling, habitat suitability, potencial distribution, RCP, silver fir, species range change


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