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Title:Alternative forecasting techniques that reduce the bullwhip effect in a supply chain : a simulation study
Authors:Campuzano Bolarín, Francisco (Author)
Guillamón Frutos, Antonio (Author)
Ruiz Abellón, Ma Del Carmen (Author)
Lisec, Andrej (Author)
Files:.pdf PROMET_2013_Campuzano-Bolarin_et_al._Alternative_Forecasting_Techniques_that_Reduce_the_Bullwhip_Effect_in_a_Supply_Chain_A_Simulation_S.pdf (938,51 KB)
MD5: 1295186A5AFB03124848FF908253B85C
 
URL http://www.fpz.unizg.hr/traffic/index.php/PROMTT/article/view/1294
 
Language:English
Work type:Scientific work (r2)
Typology:1.02 - Review Article
Organization:FL - Faculty of Logistic
Abstract:The research of the Bullwhip effect has given rise to many papers, aimed at both analysing its causes and correcting it by means of various management strategies because it has been considered as one of the critical problems in a supply chain. This study is dealing with one of its principal causes, demand forecasting. Using different simulated demand patterns, alternative forecasting methods are proposed, that can reduce the Bullwhip effect in a supply chain in comparison to the traditional forecasting techniques (moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and ARMA processes). Our main findings show that kernel regression is a good alternative in order to improve important features in the supply chain, such as the Bullwhip, NSAmp, and FillRate.
Keywords:bullwhip effect, supply chain, kernel regression, system dynamics model
Year of publishing:2013
Number of pages:str. 177-188
Numbering:št. 2, Letn. 25
ISSN:0353-5320
UDC:005.933
ISSN on article:0353-5320
COBISS_ID:512497469 New window
DOI:10.7307/ptt.v25i2.1294 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:O8GHKIWX
Views:571
Downloads:84
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Categories:Misc.
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Record is a part of a journal

Title:Promet
Publisher:Fakultet prometnih znanosti Sveučilišta u Zagrebu
ISSN:0353-5320
COBISS.SI-ID:1416196 New window

Licences

License:CC BY 4.0, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Link:http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Description:This is the standard Creative Commons license that gives others maximum freedom to do what they want with the work as long as they credit the author.
Licensing start date:31.05.2017

Secondary language

Language:Spanish
Title:Métodos alternativos de predicción que reducen el efecto bullwhip en una cadena de suministro : estudio de simulación
Abstract:El estudio del efecto Bullwhip ha dado lugar a numerosos artículos de investigación, tanto analizando sus causas como proponiendo estrategias para su corrección, ya que se considera uno de los problemas críticos en la gestión de la cadena de suministro. Este artículo estudia una de sus principales causas: los errores en la predicción de la demanda. Mediante el uso de patrones de demanda simulados, se proponen nuevos métodos predictivos que suponen una mejora en la reducción del efecto Bullwhip en una cadena de suministro en comparación con los métodos predictivos tradicionales (medias móviles, alisado exponencial simple y procesos ARMA). Este estudio muestra que la regresión núcleo es una buena alternativa para mejorar aspectos im- portantes en una cadena de suministro, como son Bullwhip, NSAmp (Distorsión del inventario neto) y niveles de servicio.
Keywords:metoda biča, nabavne verige


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