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Title:OPCIJSKO MODELIRANJE IN MERJENJE VELIKOSTI UČINKA ZA PODPORO ODLOČANJU V AGROŽIVILSTVU
Authors:Kolenko, Matej (Author)
Pažek, Karmen (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
Rozman, Črtomir (Co-mentor)
Files:.pdf DOK_Kolenko_Matej_2015.pdf (2,09 MB)
MD5: 0839CD01D0A2758879E1A488FB28EC3F
 
Language:Slovenian
Work type:Doctoral dissertation (mb31)
Organization:FKBV - Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences
Abstract:Osnovni namen raziskave je bil prikaz aplikacije metod realnih opcij v kmetijstvu in kot pomembno dopolnilo k temu merjenje velikosti učinka s Cohenovim d indeksom. Rezultati tradicionalne CBA s parametrom (NSVt) so pokazali, da je najsmotrnejša proizvodnja posušene čebule (NSVt = 518.066 €). Za oceno realnih opcij investicijskih projektov predelave čebule sta bila nadalje uporabljena Black-Scholesov model in binomski model. Opcijske vrednosti (OV) tako pri Black-Scholesovem (BS) modelu kot tudi pri binomskem modelu kažejo pozitivne vrednosti za vse tri vrste predelave čebule (zamrznjena čebula, čebulni obročki, posušena čebula). Kot najbolj smotrna investicija se je izkazala predelava čebule v posušeno čebulo. Vrednost opcije po Black-Scholes metodi je znašala 39.798 € in pri binomskem modelu 77.561 €. Realne opcije imajo pomembno vrednost, saj se tradicionalne metode naložbene analize tako nadgradijo tudi z metodami, ki upoštevajo realne opcije tudi s stohastičnega vidika. S pomočjo Cohenovega d indeksa smo merili velikost učinka med spletno in terensko anketo pri obravnavanih vprašanjih. Ugotovitve kažejo, da je pri vseh vprašanih 76 % rezultatov med obema skupinama identičnih, kar pomeni, da imamo opravka z majhnim učinkom, 20 % ima srednje velik učinek, 4 % predstavljajo velik učinek.
Keywords:CBA analiza, realne opcije, Black-Scholesov model, binomski model, velikost učinka, Cohen d indeks, predelava čebule
Year of publishing:2015
Source:Maribor
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:EBVVNGCE
Views:1210
Downloads:209
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Categories:FKBV
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:Optional modelling and Effect size measurement for decision support in agrifood production
Abstract:The primary purpose of the study was to show the application of methods of real options in agriculture and as an important addendum to this, the measurement of effect size with Cohen's d index. Results of traditional CBA with the parameter (NPVt) have shown that the production of dried onion is the most expedient (NPVt = € 518,066). In order to assess the real options of investment projects of onion processing, the Black-Scholes model and the binomial model were used further on. Optional values (OV) in both the Black-Scholes (BS) model as well as in the binomial model, show positive values for all three types of processing onions (frozen onions, onion rings, dried onion). Processing of onion into dried onion seemed to be the most expedient investment. The value of option using the Black-Scholes method amounted to € 39,798 and € 77,561 for binomial model. Real options have a significant value as the traditional methods of investment analysis are upgraded with the methods that take into account real options from the stochastic perspective. With the help of Cohen's d index we measured the effect size between the on-line and field survey in the issues discussed. The findings show that the 76% of interviewees' results between the two groups are identical, which means that we are dealing with a small effect, 20% have a medium-sized effect, 4% represent a large effect.
Keywords:CBA analysis, real options, Black-Scholes model, binomial model, effect size, Cohen d index, onion processing


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