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Title:UPORABA TEMELJNE ANALIZE NA DEVIZNEM TRGU
Authors:Perko, Mitja (Author)
Zbašnik, Dušan (Mentor) More about this mentor... New window
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Language:Slovenian
Work type:Undergraduate thesis (m5)
Typology:2.11 - Undergraduate Thesis
Organization:EPF - Faculty of Business and Economics
Abstract:Temeljna analiza predstavlja instrumentarij, s katerim poskušamo razložiti številne premike v gibanju deviznega tečaja skozi daljše obdobje. Takšen instrumentarij lahko uporabimo tudi za ugotavljanje gibanja tečaja v prihodnosti — za napovedovanje. V splošnem je temeljna analiza skupek različnih teorij, ki vsaka po svoje opisujejo, kako se devizni tečaj v nekem trenutku izoblikuje. Za dobro napoved je potrebno uporabiti čim večje število teorij, ki jih vključuje temeljna analiza; le tako se lahko izognemo situaciji, kjer bi ob uporabi samo ene teorije, temeljna analiza podala manj kvalitetne napovedi. Priporočena je tudi uporaba analize pri napovedovanju na dolgi rok, saj zaradi različnih razlogov odnosi med ekonomskimi spremenljivkami in tečajem potrebujejo čas, preden se povezava nedvoumno pokaže. Kot rezultat naše sprotne analize tečaja evro/dolar tekom diplomskega dela lahko zaključimo, da večina teorij, ki so del temeljne analize, kaže na bodočo depreciacijo evra proti ameriškemu dolarju.
Keywords:devizni trg, devizni tečaj, temeljna analiza, fundamentalna analiza, napovedovanje, pariteta kupne moči, mednarodni Fisherjev efekt, določanje deviznega tečaja, monetarni pristop, trgovinski pristop, fiskalna politika, proračun, evro, dolar, jen
Year of publishing:2009
Publisher:[M. Perko]
Source:Maribor
UDC:339.743
COBISS_ID:10041628 New window
NUK URN:URN:SI:UM:DK:DCR3HJMB
Views:147
Downloads:0
Metadata:XML RDF-CHPDL DC-XML DC-RDF
Categories:EPF
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Secondary language

Language:English
Title:THE APPLICATION OF FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS AT THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
Abstract:Fundamental analysis represents an instrument, with which we try to explain movements or shifts in the exchange rate through a certain lengthy time period. This instrument can also be applied to assess or predict exchange rate movements in the future, thus it can be used for forecasting. In general, fundamental analysis consists of a number of different theories, all of which try to describe the determination of the exchange rate. For a quality forecast it is necessary to use as much of the theories in the repertoire of fundamental analysis as possible, since therefore the probability of fundamental analysis to produce an inaccurate forecast, due to an erroneous theory, is reduced. Also recommended when forecasting, is the application of fundamental analysis in the long run, because for different reasons economic variables take time to influence the exchange rate. From our analysis of the euro/dollar exchange rate, we can conclude that most of the theories offered by fundamental analysis show a future depreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar.
Keywords:foreign exchange market, exchange rate, fundamental analysis, forecasting, purchasing power parity, international Fisher effect, exchange rate determination, monetary approach, elasticity approach, fiscal policy, governement budget, euro, dollar, yen


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