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Systems approach to tourism
Tadeja Jere Lazanski, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background and Purpose: The complexity of the tourism system, as well as modelling in a frame of system dynamics, will be discussed in this paper. The phaenomenon of tourism, which possesses the typical properties of global and local organisations, will be presented as an open complex system with all its elements, and an optimal methodology to explain the relations among them. The approach we want to present is due to its transparency an excellent tool for searching systems solutions and serves also as a strategic decision-making assessment. We will present systems complexity and develop three models of a complex tourism system: the first one will present tourism as an open complex system with its elements, which operate inside of a tourism market area. The elements of this system present subsystems, which relations and interdependencies will be explained with two models: causal-loop diagram and a simulation model in frame of systems dynamics. Design/methodology/approach: Systems methodology will be shown as the appropriate one, when we discuss complex systems challenges. For illustration, systems approach and systems methodology will be applied to tourism models. With building a qualitative causal-loop diagram we will describe the tourism system complexity in forms of system%s elements relations. Mutual influences among the elements will be presented with positive and negative loops, which forms circles of reinforcement and balance. This will help us to discuss the problem categorically. The final model will follow the causal-loop diagram. This will be a simulation model in a frame of system dynamics as an illustration of the discussed methodology. Results: The methodology offers the solution of effective and holistic promotion of complex tourism system transformation, which has the potential to go beyond the myth of sustainable tourism and create significant shifts in the approach and acting of the participants (elements of the system) involved. Systems approach brings to tourism and the society, in general, broader dimensions of thinking, the awareness interdependency, interconnectivity, and responsibility for the behaviour of a system, which can be observed by feedback loops. Conclusions: Findings about meaningfulness of systems thinking presented in the paper, are rarely presented to tourism society systemically and with the aim of designing sustainable complex tourism system. They show new approach, systems awareness and teaches thinking %out of the box%. Consequently, the sustainable behaviour is achieved: tourism supply and demand meet on responsible base and they connect to responsible stakeholders.
Ključne besede: systems approach, complexity, tourism system, modelling, system dynamics
Objavljeno: 22.01.2018; Ogledov: 450; Prenosov: 103
.pdf Celotno besedilo (625,68 KB)
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Assessing the impact of prices fluctuation on demand distortion within a multi-echelon supply chain
Francisco Campuzano Bolarín, Antonio Guillamón Frutos, Andrej Lisec, 2011, pregledni znanstveni članek

Opis: Price fluctuation is a practice commonly used by companies to stimulate demand and a main cause of the Bullwhip effect. Assuming a staggered step demand pattern that responds elastically to retailer’s price fluctuation, and by using a supply chain management dynamic model, we will analyse the impact of these fluctuations on the variability of the orders placed along a traditional multilevel supply chain. Subsequently, the results obtained will serve to propose a forecasting model enabling to calculate the potential variability of orders placed by each echelon on the basis of the price pattern used. Finally, under the hypothesis of an environment of collaboration between the different members of the chain, we propose a predictive model that makes it possible to quantify the distortion of the orders generated by each level.
Ključne besede: bullwhip effect, systems dynamics, price fluctuation, supply chain management
Objavljeno: 01.06.2017; Ogledov: 603; Prenosov: 268
.pdf Celotno besedilo (560,46 KB)
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Statistical Properties of Time-dependent Systems
Diego Fregolente Mendes De Oliveira, 2012, doktorska disertacija

Opis: In the dissertation I have dealt with time-dependent (nonautonomous) systems, the conservative (Hamiltonian) as well as dissipative, and investigated their dynamical and statistical properties. In conservative (Hamiltonian) time-dependent systems the energy is not conserved, whilst the Liouville theorem about the conservation of the phase space volume still applies. We are interested to know, whether the system can gain energy, and whether this energy can grow unbounded, up to infinity, and we are interested in the system's behaviour in the mean, as well as its statistical properties. An example of such a system goes back to the 1940s, when Fermi proposed the acceleration of cosmic rays (in the first place protons) upon the collisions with moving magnetic domains in the interstellar medium of our Galaxy, and in other galaxies. He then proposed a simple mechanical one-dimensional model, the so-called Fermi-Ulam Model (FUM), where a point particle is moving between two rigid walls, one being at rest and the other one oscillating. If the oscillation is periodic and smooth, it turned out in a nontrivial way, which is, in the modern era of understanding the chaotic dynamical systems, well understood, namely that the unbounded increasing of the energy (the so-called Fermi acceleration) is not possible, due to the barriers in form of invariant tori, which partition the phase space into regions, between which the transitions are not possible. The research has then been extended to other simple dyanamical systems, which have complex dynamics. The first was so-called bouncer model, in which a point particle bounces off the oscillating platform in a gravitational field. In this simple system the Fermi acceleration is possible. Later the research was directed towards two-dimensional billiard systems. It turned out that the Fermi acceleration is possible in all such systems, which are at least partially chaotic (of the mixed type), or even in a system that is integrable as static, namely in case of the elliptic billiard. (The circle billiard is an exception, because it is always integrable, as the angular momentum is conserved even in time-dependent case.) The study of time-dependent systems has developed strongly worldwide around the 1990s, in particular in 2000s, and became one of the central topics in nonlinear dynamics. It turned out, quite generally, but formal and implicit, in the sense of mathematical existence theorems, that in nonautonomous Hamilton systems the energy can grow unbounded, meaning that the system ``pumps" the energy from the environment with which it interacts. There are many open questions: how does the energy increase with time, in particular in the mean of some representative ensemble of initial conditions (typically the phase space of two-dimensional time-dependent billiards is four-dimensional.) It turned out that almost everywhere the power laws apply, empirically, based on the numerical calculations, but with various acceleration exponents. If the Fermi acceleration is not posssible, like e.g. in the FUM, due to the invariant tori, then after a certain time of acceleration stage the crossover into the regime of saturation takes place, whose characteristics also follow the power laws. One of the central themes in the dissertation is the study of these power laws, their critical exponents, analytical relationships among them, using the scaling analysis (Leonel, McClintock and Silva, Phys. Rev. Lett. 2004). Furthermore, the central theme is the question, what happens, if, in a nonautonomous Hamilton system which exhibits Fermi acceleration, we introduce dissipation, either at the collisions with the walls (collisional dissipation) or during the free motion (in-flight dissipation, due to the viscosity of the fluid or the drag force etc.). Dissipation typically transforms the periodic points into point attractors and chaotic components into chaotic attractors. The Fermi acceleration is always suppressed. We are interested in the phase portraits of
Ključne besede: nonlinear dynamics, dynamical systems, conservative and dissipative systems, time-dependent systems, Fermi acceleration, billiards, kicked systems, chaos, chaotic and periodic attractors, bifurcations, boundary crisis
Objavljeno: 19.09.2012; Ogledov: 2356; Prenosov: 101
.pdf Celotno besedilo (16,09 MB)

Nonlinear time series analysis of the human electrocardiogram
Matjaž Perc, 2005, strokovni članek

Opis: We analyse the human electrocardiogram with simple nonlinear time series analysis methods that are appropriate for graduate as well as undergraduate courses. In particular, attention is devoted to the notions of determinism and stationarity in physiological data. We emphasize that methods of nonlinear time series analysis can be successfully applied only if the studied data set originates from a deterministic stationary system. After positively establishing the presence of determinism and stationarity in the studied electrocardiogram, we calculate the maximal Lyapunov exponent, thus providing interesting insights into the dynamics of the human heart. Moreover, to facilitate interest and enable the integration of nonlinear time series analysis methods into the curriculum at an early stage of the educational process, we also provide user-friendly programs for each implemented method.
Ključne besede: dynamic systems, chaotic systems, nonlinear dynamics, electrocardiogram, human electrocardiogram, nonlinear analyses
Objavljeno: 07.06.2012; Ogledov: 1838; Prenosov: 73
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Visualizing the attraction of strange attractors
Matjaž Perc, 2005, strokovni članek

Opis: We describe a simple new method that provides instructive insights into the dynamics of chaotic time-continuous systems that yield strange attractors as solutions in the phase space. In particular, we show that the norm of the vector field component that is orthogonal to the trajectory is an excellent quantity for visualizing the attraction of strange attractors, thus promoting the understanding of their formation and overall structure. Furthermore, based on the existence of zero orthogonal field strengths in planes that form low-dimensional strange attractors, we also provide an innovative explanation for the origin of chaotic behaviour. For instructive purposes, we first apply the method to a simple limit cycle attractor, and then analyse two paradigmatic mathematical models for classical time-continuous chaos. To facilitate the use of our method in graduate as well as undergraduate courses, we also provide user-friendly programs in which the presented theory is implemented.
Ključne besede: dynamic systems, chaotic systems, nonlinear dynamics, attractors, strange attractors
Objavljeno: 07.06.2012; Ogledov: 1696; Prenosov: 56
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Thoughts out of noise
Matjaž Perc, 2006, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: We study the effects of additive Gaussian noise on the behaviour of a simple spatially extended system, which is locally modelled by a nonlinear two-dimensional iterated map describing neuronal dynamics. In particular, we focus on the ability of noise to induce spatially ordered patterns, i. e. the so-called noise-induced pattern formation. For intermediate noise intensities, the spatially extended system exhibits ordered circular waves, thereby clearly manifesting the constructive role of random perturbations. The emergence of observed noise-induced patterns is explained with simple arguments that are obtained by analysing the typical spatial scale of patterns evoked by various diffusion coefficients. Since discrete-time systems are straightforward to implement and require modest computational capabilities, the present study describes one of the most fascinating and visually compelling examples of noise-induced self-organization in nonlinear systems in an accessible way for graduate or even advanced undergraduate students attending a nonlinear dynamics course.
Ključne besede: dynamic systems, chaotic systems, nonlinear dynamics, nonlinear systems, noise, nonlinear analyses
Objavljeno: 07.06.2012; Ogledov: 1071; Prenosov: 27
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Proximity to periodic windows in bifurcation diagrams as a gateway to coherence resonance in chaotic systems
Marko Gosak, Matjaž Perc, 2007, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: We show that chaotic states situated in the proximity of periodic windows in bifurcation diagrams are eligible for the observation of coherence resonance. In particular, additive Gaussian noise of appropriate intensity can enhance the temporal order in such chaotic states in a resonant manner. Results obtained for the logistic map and the Lorenz equations suggest that the presented mechanism of coherence resonance is valid beyond particularities of individual systems. We attribute the findings to the increasing attraction of imminent periodic orbits and the ability of noise to anticipate their existence and use a modified wavelet analysis to support our arguments.
Ključne besede: chaotic systems, spatial resonance, coherence resonance, nonlinear systems, noise, spatial dynamics, mathematical models, bifurcation diagrame
Objavljeno: 07.06.2012; Ogledov: 1693; Prenosov: 96
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Transition from Gaussian to Levy distributions of stochastic payoff variations in the spatial prisoner's dilemma game
Matjaž Perc, 2007, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: We study the impact of stochastic payoff variations with different distributions on the evolution of cooperation in the spatial prisoner's dilemma game. We find that Gaussian-distributed payoff variations are most successful in promoting cooperation irrespective of the temptation to defect. In particular, the facilitative effect of noise on the evolution of cooperation decreases steadily as the frequency of rare events increases. Findings are explained via an analysis of local payoff ranking violations. The relevance of results for economics and sociology is discussed.
Ključne besede: stochastic systems, spatial resonance, stochastic payoff variations, nonlinear systems, noise, spatial dynamics, mathematical models, prisoner's dilemma
Objavljeno: 07.06.2012; Ogledov: 1481; Prenosov: 74
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Spatial coherence resonance in neuronal media with discrete local dynamics
Matjaž Perc, 2006, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: We study effects of spatiotemporal additive noise on the spatial dynamics of excitable neuronal media that is locally modelled by a two-dimensional map. We focus on the ability of noise to enhance a particular spatial frequency of the media in a resonant manner. We show that there exists an optimal noise intensity for which the inherent spatial periodicity of the media is resonantly pronounced, thus marking the existence of spatial coherence resonance in the studied system. Additionally, results are discussed in view of their possible biological importance.
Ključne besede: physics, complex systems, dynamical systems, noise, spatial dynamics, chaos, chaotic systems, chaos control, resonance
Objavljeno: 07.06.2012; Ogledov: 1649; Prenosov: 92
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