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1.
The international energy security risk index in sustainable energy and economy transition decision making - a reliability analysis
Iztok Podbregar, Goran Šimić, Mirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović, Damjan Maletič, Polona Šprajc, 2020, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.
Ključne besede: energy and economy transition, decision making, international energy security risk index, multiple regression analysis, multicollinearity test, multicollinearity test with variance inflation factors
Objavljeno v DKUM: 04.02.2025; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 2
.pdf Celotno besedilo (447,82 KB)
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2.
PROS AND CONS OF THE CURRENCY BOARD-CASE OF BULGARIA
Zornitsa Daskalova Krasimirova, 2010, delo diplomskega seminarja/zaključno seminarsko delo/naloga

Opis: The investigated topic is such that retains its importance throughout time as it tends to be a good lesson on the misconduct of monetary policy of one country during turbulent and drastic economic and political changes, and the following actions meant to bridle back the economy to its stable performance. The focus of this thesis is of Bulgaria and the way it coped with the galloping hyperinflation in the late nineties of the previous century. My main motivation and reason behind writing this thesis is first the fact that I am Bulgarian, who has the language know-how and the access to vaster sources describing and delving into the investigated topic. Furthermore, I am familiar with the culture that stands behind and affects in many aspects the decisions that happened to be decisive for those tumultuous times, thus I can give a better insight on the topic to the people observing from abroad. Therefore, I have attempted to give an objective and straightforward analysis and explanation behind the history, structure, past and present challenges of the Bulgarian currency board, and its advantages and disadvantages that it has had in the country. I hope the information is clear and useful enough to create awareness in the other EU countries of the main arguments and disputes surrounding this pegged system and in general help toward forming a basis for a proper decision making. There were some limitations in the course of work; i.e denied access to some of the materials and articles as they are available only when accessed from Bulgaria. Despite the difficulties, I managed to get a broad scope of sources- domestic and international ones, to come up with the final coherent piece of work that I have the honour to present to you. Further down, in the Introduction part, I have elaborated deeper on the way how I have prepared and structured the investigated topic of my bachelor thesis.
Ključne besede: currency board, “orthodox” currency board, pegged currency, anchor currency, monetary policy, Bulgarian monetary policy, economic crisis, financial crisis, inflation, depreciation, current account deficit, ERM 2, Bulgarian politics, Bulgaria, EU, IMF, Bulgarian National Bank, Eurozone
Objavljeno v DKUM: 05.05.2011; Ogledov: 3012; Prenosov: 133
.pdf Celotno besedilo (620,89 KB)

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