Visible symptoms of the financial crisisMatic Žargi
, 2017, undergraduate thesis
Abstract: The Great Recession of 2008 had such a huge impact on the global economy, hence it should be predictable? With a theoretical analysis of Early Warning Systems (EWS) we came to the conclussion that they do in fact work. However, due to complex dimensions of the crisis, there was no particular set of EWS which could actually predict the impact of the crisis. This complexity stems overleveraging and various financial innovations which made the financial markets riskier in unobservable ways. In order to observe the symptoms of a serious crisis we need to look at the economy as a simple machine. Ray Dalios principle about the long and short term debt cycle gave us a different approach. It enables us to spot the symptoms simply by analysisng interest rates, base money creation and federal spending. Rajan (2005) has proved that thesis in his paper, where he showed that the financial instruments became so complex, that they became too risky. Our analysis has brought us to a conclussion that right now interest rates in the US are starting ot rise, the inflation is rising and GDP growth stagnating. With the application of our system we can see that right now we are in the middle of a business cycle. We can predict that a downturn in the capital markets is about to occur. However no system is able to predict the impact of the crisis.
Keywords: financial crisis, debt, leveraging, leverage, economic cycles
Published: 03.11.2017; Views: 357; Downloads: 34
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Economic growth and public indebtedness in the last four decadesRicardo Ferraz
, António Portugal Duarte
, 2015, original scientific article
Abstract: Portugal is a member of the group known by investors as ‘PIIGS’, countries characterised by having high public debt and weak economic growth. Using an extended time horizon, 1974–2014, this study seeks to empirically explore the relationship between economic growth and public debt in the PIIGS economies, particularly in the case of Portugal. Based on the estimation of linear regression models, it was concluded that in the last four decades there has been a negative relationship between economic growth and public debt in both cases, which is consistent with the literature. The negative relationship was even more pronounced in the case of the PIIGS than it was in the case of Portugal.
Keywords: economy, economic growth, Portugal, ‘PIIGS’, public debt
Published: 13.11.2017; Views: 320; Downloads: 36
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The relationship between the intellectual capital disclosure and cost of debt capitalNeca Stropnik
, Bojana Korošec
, Polona Tominc
, 2017, original scientific article
Abstract: The existing empirical research into the association between intellectual capital disclosures by organisations and the cost of debt is scarce or is based solely on the samples of the (large) listed organisations. Since agency issues between management/owners and lenders exist also in (large) private organisations whose financing is greatly dependent on loans and whose audited annual reports can be a source of additional information for external users, we performed an empirical research to find the answer to the question whether the level of intellectual capital disclosure (as a whole and of its sub-categories) of organisations is associated with the cost of their debt capital. Our study was performed on a sample of private Slovenian organisations with audited annual reports. The results of our research did not reveal that lenders would take into account intellectual capital disclosures by Slovenian private audited organisations as the information about the potential for their future cash flows when deciding on the cost of debt issued to these organisations.
Keywords: intellectual capital, intellectual capital disclosure, intellectual capital disclosure level, cost of debt, private organisations, content analysis
Published: 03.05.2018; Views: 199; Downloads: 66
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Some observations regarding cross-border debt collection in consumer disputesChristophe Verdure
, 2010, original scientific article
Abstract: Cross-border debt collection in consumer dispute leads to many difficulties. The main one is the access to justice as consumers are generally not aware of their rights and legal proceedings may be expensive. The major difficulty in order to sue a counterpart based in another Member States is the determination of the competent court. However, this private international law issue is the first step in order to bring a legal action. This action may be disproportionate, on time and value, in comparison with the amount of the debt a consumer wants to recover. As a result, the European Commission has adopted the Directive 2008/52/EC on certain aspects of mediation in civil and commercial matters which aims at facilitating cross-border disputes involving consumers. After recalling the main characteristics of the Directive, author also discusses online mediation, that can also lead to more effective results.
Keywords: cross-border debt collection, online mediation, consumer law, alternative litigation proceedings, Directive 2008/52/EC, private international law
Published: 23.07.2018; Views: 117; Downloads: 12
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