PROS AND CONS OF THE CURRENCY BOARD-CASE OF BULGARIAZornitsa Daskalova Krasimirova
, 2010, final seminar paper
Abstract: The investigated topic is such that retains its importance throughout time as it tends to be a good lesson on the misconduct of monetary policy of one country during turbulent and drastic economic and political changes, and the following actions meant to bridle back the economy to its stable performance. The focus of this thesis is of Bulgaria and the way it coped with the galloping hyperinflation in the late nineties of the previous century.
My main motivation and reason behind writing this thesis is first the fact that I am Bulgarian, who has the language know-how and the access to vaster sources describing and delving into the investigated topic. Furthermore, I am familiar with the culture that stands behind and affects in many aspects the decisions that happened to be decisive for those tumultuous times, thus I can give a better insight on the topic to the people observing from abroad. Therefore, I have attempted to give an objective and straightforward analysis and explanation behind the history, structure, past and present challenges of the Bulgarian currency board, and its advantages and disadvantages that it has had in the country. I hope the information is clear and useful enough to create awareness in the other EU countries of the main arguments and disputes surrounding this pegged system and in general help toward forming a basis for a proper decision making.
There were some limitations in the course of work; i.e denied access to some of the materials and articles as they are available only when accessed from Bulgaria. Despite the difficulties, I managed to get a broad scope of sources- domestic and international ones, to come up with the final coherent piece of work that I have the honour to present to you. Further down, in the Introduction part, I have elaborated deeper on the way how I have prepared and structured the investigated topic of my bachelor thesis.
Keywords: currency board, “orthodox” currency board, pegged currency, anchor currency, monetary policy, Bulgarian monetary policy, economic crisis, financial crisis, inflation, depreciation, current account deficit, ERM 2, Bulgarian politics, Bulgaria, EU, IMF, Bulgarian National Bank, Eurozone
Published: 05.05.2011; Views: 2129; Downloads: 74
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THE ROLE OF THE RATING AGENCIES IN THE CURRENT FINANCIAL CRISISPetar Filipov
, 2012, undergraduate thesis
Abstract: The Subprime crisis that occurred in 2007-2008, was the most disturbing and severe crisis since The Great Depression. The global stock market indexes and housing prices noted a sharp drop. Big corporations, conglomerates, defaulted, were acquired and bailed out, since they could not meet their financing obligations. Substantial number of people lost their jobs worldwide and a lot of sectors in the economy were struggling.
Within this Bachelor seminar paper, it is presented how the credit rating agencies influenced the credit crunch. The main issue discussed in this seminar work is the role of the rating agencies in one of the greatest crushes in history. They (the agencies), actually, participated in creating the structured financial products, which during the housing bubble were increasingly trading. These structured financial products were very complex and highly risky and maybe, the most crucial cause of the crisis.
First, in the seminar paper it is described how the agencies work and their origins. As in the last century, Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s, emerged to great power in the financial system with assigning ratings to issuers of debt. This position in the financial world that the agencies held, has brought many academicians to doubting the possible moral hazard problems within the credit ratings business. Furthermore, it is explained how the financial turmoil emerged and the trends that preceded the credit crunch. Questions regarding the role of the agencies in the securitization process are discussed. For instance, were the rating agencies biased; were the ratings on the structured financial products inflated and if so, what were the incentives for it?
Several theories and empirical evidence has been put forward concerning the importance of the ratings in the securitization process. It is concluded in this paper, that the ratings assigned to the financial derivatives were inflated and the agencies noted increased returns from it, which presents the incentives of the agencies during the housing bubble. These empirical findings also indicate of moral hazard problem within the ratings system.
Keywords: Credit rating agencies, Financial crisis, Structured financial products, Securitization, Inflated ratings, Moral hazard
Published: 29.11.2012; Views: 991; Downloads: 69
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Statistical Properties of Time-dependent SystemsDiego Fregolente Mendes De Oliveira
, 2012, doctoral dissertation
Abstract: In the dissertation I have dealt with time-dependent (nonautonomous) systems,
the conservative (Hamiltonian) as well as dissipative, and investigated their dynamical
and statistical properties. In conservative (Hamiltonian) time-dependent systems the
energy is not conserved, whilst the Liouville theorem about the conservation of the phase
space volume still applies. We are interested to know, whether the system can gain
energy, and whether this energy can grow unbounded, up to infinity, and we are
interested in the system's behaviour in the mean, as well as its statistical
properties. An example of such a system goes back to the 1940s, when Fermi proposed
the acceleration of cosmic rays (in the first place protons) upon the collisions
with moving magnetic domains in the interstellar medium of our Galaxy,
and in other galaxies. He then proposed a simple mechanical one-dimensional model,
the so-called Fermi-Ulam Model (FUM), where a point particle is moving between two
rigid walls, one being at rest and the other one oscillating. If the oscillation
is periodic and smooth, it turned out in a nontrivial way, which is, in the
modern era of understanding the chaotic dynamical systems, well understood,
namely that the unbounded increasing of the energy (the so-called Fermi
acceleration) is not possible, due to the barriers in form of invariant tori,
which partition the phase space into regions, between which the transitions are
not possible. The research has then been extended to other simple dyanamical
systems, which have complex dynamics. The first was so-called bouncer model,
in which a point particle bounces off the oscillating platform in a gravitational
field. In this simple system the Fermi acceleration is possible. Later
the research was directed towards two-dimensional billiard systems. It turned
out that the Fermi acceleration is possible in all such systems, which are at least
partially chaotic (of the mixed type), or even in a system that is integrable
as static, namely in case of the elliptic billiard. (The circle billiard
is an exception, because it is always integrable, as the angular momentum
is conserved even in time-dependent case.) The study of time-dependent systems
has developed strongly worldwide around the 1990s, in particular in 2000s,
and became one of the central topics in nonlinear dynamics. It turned out,
quite generally, but formal and implicit, in the sense of mathematical
existence theorems, that in nonautonomous Hamilton systems the energy can
grow unbounded, meaning that the system ``pumps" the energy from the environment
with which it interacts. There are many open questions: how does the energy
increase with time, in particular in the mean of some representative ensemble
of initial conditions (typically the phase space of two-dimensional time-dependent
billiards is four-dimensional.) It turned out that almost everywhere the power laws
apply, empirically, based on the numerical calculations, but with various
acceleration exponents. If the Fermi acceleration is not posssible, like e.g.
in the FUM, due to the invariant tori, then after a certain time of acceleration
stage the crossover into the regime of saturation takes place, whose
characteristics also follow the power laws. One of the central themes in
the dissertation is the study of these power laws, their critical exponents,
analytical relationships among them, using the scaling analysis
(Leonel, McClintock and Silva, Phys. Rev. Lett. 2004). Furthermore, the central
theme is the question, what happens, if, in a nonautonomous Hamilton system
which exhibits Fermi acceleration, we introduce dissipation, either
at the collisions with the walls (collisional dissipation) or
during the free motion (in-flight dissipation, due to the viscosity
of the fluid or the drag force etc.). Dissipation typically transforms
the periodic points into point attractors and chaotic components into
chaotic attractors. The Fermi acceleration is always suppressed.
We are interested in the phase portraits of
Keywords: nonlinear dynamics, dynamical systems, conservative and dissipative
systems, time-dependent systems, Fermi acceleration, billiards, kicked systems, chaos, chaotic and periodic attractors, bifurcations, boundary crisis
Published: 19.09.2012; Views: 1958; Downloads: 79
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Nonlinear spillovers between euro area sovereign bond marketsSilvo Dajčman
, 2015, original scientific article
Abstract: This paper examines nonlinear spillover effects between sovereign bond markets of six euro area countries (France, Ireland, Italy, Germany, Portugal, and Spain), four of which were among the hardest hit by the sovereign debt crisis, by applying a nonlinear Granger causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006). The test is applied on the sovereign bond yield dynamics (i.e. yield changes) time series for the time period from 3 January 2000 - 31 August 2011. We also test for ˝pure˝ spillovers between sovereign bond yield dynamics, i.e. the spillovers after controlling for common and regional factors that impact the sovereign bond yield changes of all countries simultaneously. To verify if the nature of spillovers has changed after the start of the euro are sovereign debt crisis, we test for the nonlinear spillovers for the whole observed period and separately for the period be fore and after the start of the euro area sovereign debt crisis (period from the start of April 2010 until the end of our sample, i.e. 31 August 2011). The results of our study show that strong bi-directional Granger causality exists between the investigated sovereign bond markets. Very similar results are obtained whether the regional and world factors are or are not controlled for. We find strong bi-directional non-linear Granger causality for the investigated euro area countries prior the euro area sovereign debt crisis. After the start of the euro area sovereign debt crisis the interdependence be- tween the markets has reduced. We can no longer detect non-linear spillovers running from Germany and France to the ˝periphery˝ euro area countries. The findings of this study have important implications for the policymakers as they show that shocks spill-over quickly across the sovereign bond markets and the intensity and nature of spillovers can change throughout time. The sovereign bond markets of the ˝core˝ euro area decoupled from the ˝periphery˝ euro area sovereign bond markets after the start of euro are debt crisis. The findings are also of relevance for individual investors in the sovereign bond markets for the purpose of portfolio diversification.
Keywords: stock exchanges, bonds, financial crisis, econometric models, EU, sovereign bond markets, spillovers, non-linear Granger causality
Published: 07.08.2017; Views: 331; Downloads: 174
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Male and Female Response to Crisis in Ann Radcliffe's Gothic RomancesTadej Braček
, 2016, doctoral dissertation
Abstract: The thesis systematically enumerates and analyses the responses to external and internal (psychological) crises experienced by the characters in Ann Ward Radcliffe’s gothic romances. In this respect, it represents an original contribution to the scholarship in the field of English literature studies. The novels it deals with are The Castles of Athlin and Dunbayne, A Sicilian Romance, The Romance of the Forest, The Mysteries of Udolpho and The Italian.
The introduction explains the theory of gothic romance and explores the schism between the north and south of Europe, where the former is considered as a stable and moderate part of the continent, and the latter as full of passion and instability. The north and south also represent the gap between Protestant and Roman-Catholic Europe. Catholic clergy, dwelling in the south, are mostly pictured as morally debauched and as having a hidden agenda, even if they first appear to help others. Such an example is Padre Abate from A Sicilian Romance.
The dissertation asserts that responses are not so much defined by gender itself, but by the benevolence or malignancy of the characters. Benevolent characters are more sensitive and react more turbulently in the physical sense in instances of crisis, e.g. by fainting or becoming ill. Such is the case for all female protagonists: Mary, Julia, Adeline, Emily and Ellena. Heroes and heroines are affected by nature and find solace in it, while malevolent ones are not affected by nature at all and seek comfort in earthly pleasures of human origin. Such examples are the Marquises de Mazzini and de Montalt, and Signor Montoni.
Negative characters’ reactions to crisis are vehement and aimed to change not themselves, but other people or circumstances. Their malignancy, mixed with covertness, as they want to keep up appearances, is the agency that drives their responses. Their reactions are not rational, and since Radcliffe’s romances are novels of Enlightenment where reason reigns supreme, it is not difficult to foretell that such characters are doomed to perish. They indeed do so, either by their own hand, as in the cases of Schedoni and the Marquis de Montalt, or at the hands of others, such as Baron Malcolm and the Marquis de Mazzini. Nearly all of them repent at the end of their lives and wish to amend their wrongdoings. The exceptions are Maria de Mazzini and Schedoni. The former accuses her own husband, who caught her cheating on him, for her unfortunate situation, whereas the latter, once a confessor, dies without remorse or absolution. Positive characters seeks comfort in God before they die, and their turning to Him is often associated with the realization that He is the creator of magnificent nature.
However, there is one substantial difference between male and female responses to crises. Males tend to be more active in seeking solutions, while women, even if they desire to be saved, primarily depend on men to make it happen, or, if they show some resistance, they submit to male power to avoid consequences. The one who acts on her own is the nun Olivia, who arranges Ellena’s escape from the convent of San Stefano.
In its conclusion, the thesis stresses the importance of Anne Radcliffe’s works for world literature and suggests that they should be included in the current curricula and broader literary studies, as well as translated into Slovenian.
Keywords: Ann Ward Radcliffe, gothic fiction, romances, males, females, crisis, response
Published: 29.08.2016; Views: 899; Downloads: 104
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Post-9/11 America: Poetic and Cultural ResponsesKristina Kočan Šalamon
, 2016, doctoral dissertation
Abstract: The doctoral dissertation with the title “Post-9/11 America: Poetic and Cultural Responses” examines the immediate responses that emerged in American media and poetry after the terrorist attacks on 11 September, 2001 in New York City and Washington, D.C. The research proceeds from the analysis of responses to 9/11 in several American printed media, to the reading of poetic works by contemporary American poets. Using the resources of the editorials in four major daily American newspapers (USA Today, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Washington Times) and two leading weekly American magazines (The New Yorker and The Weekly Standard), the research employs the theoretical approach of content analysis to examine the rhetoric used. This method enables textual data analysis in selected editorials associated with the language of 9/11 to confirm the first variable of the thesis; i.e. that the media reproduced the manner of the rhetoric of the then current government administration. Seeking to explain the rhetoric of the politicians and the media after 9/11, the analysis explores several parameters. This kind of rhetoric addressed the issues connected to 9/11, and employed a great deal of patriotism-related words as well as a language that could help instigate fear and paranoia in Americans and their culture. After the first hypothesis of the thesis has been established, the study turns towards the primary argument of the thesis. The main crux of the study is to show that the majority of the poets deviated from the prevalent rhetoric of the time, and did not resort to the language of fear and intense patriotism. This in-depth study of contemporary American poetry that came into existence as a response to the events of 9/11 focuses on poems published in several anthologies (Poetry after 9/11: An Anthology of New York Poets; September 11, 2001 American Writers Respond; An Eye for an Eye Makes the Whole World Blind; September 11: West Coast Writers Approach Ground Zero; 110 Stories), prominent American journals (such as The New Yorker and Michigan Quarterly Review), and poetry collections. Focusing on portraying the manifold poetic responses to 9/11, this study leans on thematic criticism as a comparative approach for creating a collectivity of poems that differ in metrics, style, tropes and figures of speech. Thematic criticism provides a foundation for organizing the poems into thematic clusters, not by determining unique thematic features of a specific poem, but by establishing attributes that unite several poems into a thematic cluster. The thesis divides the 9/11 poems into eight thematic clusters, which are then analyzed in detail. Additionally, the study uses another method to analyze individual poetic responses to 9/11, which is the formalist theoretical approach, New Criticism. This interpretive method of close reading enables an interpretation of a poem by analyzing its formal elements based on internal evidence. With the combination of the interpretive and comparative approach, the thesis has confirmed the main postulate and has established that most post-9/11 American poetry eschewed the prevalent patriotic rhetoric of the then current U.S. media. The study has shown that post-9/11 poetry is a marginal genre in comparison to the 9/11 novel when it comes to the critical examination of the post-9/11 literary responses. Hence, this study is novel in providing a substantial scholarly examination of post-9/11 poetry written by American poets. Chapter 2 investigates fear, patriotism and language issues in politics and the media after 9/11.Chapter 3 establishes the prevailing rhetoric in the immediate post 9/11 response of U.S. media with the help of the theoretical framework of content analysis. The pre-existing scholarly work on literary responses to 9/11 and the problems with representation of 9/11 in American culture occupy Chapter 4, while Chapter 5 sets out the selected methodology (Thematic Criticism and New Criticism) for studying post-9/11 American poetry. Chapter 6 deals extensively with thematic representations in post-9/11 American poetry.
Keywords: events of 9/11, contemporary American poetry, responses, media, politics, culture, trauma, crisis, content analysis, New Criticism, close reading, thematic criticism
Published: 05.10.2016; Views: 939; Downloads: 62
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Spread and liquidity issuesSebastjan Strašek
, Bor Bricelj
, 2016, original scientific article
Abstract: The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.
Keywords: liquidity, financial crisis, GARCH VaR models
Published: 03.04.2017; Views: 291; Downloads: 37
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Reaction to crisis in gothic romanceTadej Braček
, 2016, original scientific article
Abstract: Gothic romances were primarily women's domain. This is proven by the fact that from the end of the eighteenth century to the beginning of the nineteenth century more than fifty female authors wrote Gothic romances. In the first part the paper depicts the emergence of romances, clarifies the notion of the Gothic and explains the theory of Gothic romances. The second part focuses on Ann Radcliffe's first novel, The Castles of Athlin and Dunbayne. This section analyses in what way men and women react to crises. It concludes that reactions are primarily based not on sex but on the benevolence and malevolence of literary characters. The former react with higher intensity on the physical level (passing out, becoming ill) and the latter react vehemently in emotional sense towards their rivals. The originality of the article lies in the systematic analysis of characters' responses to crisis and in the study of atypical features of this Gothic novel.
Keywords: English literature, Gothic romance, men, women, crisis, response, Ann Radcliffe, The Castles of Athlin and Dunbayne
Published: 16.05.2017; Views: 193; Downloads: 55
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Methodology of an aircraft accident response system assessmentFranc Željko Županič
, Maja Meško
, Iztok Podbregar
, 2012, original scientific article
Abstract: The paper investigates the ability to learn from an aircraft accident as the opportunities for learning diminish with the decline in the accident rate. A safety compromising case is studied as the processes of aircraft accident intervention and recovery can degrade the ability of an aircraft accident investigation process to enhance aviation safety by revealing accident causation. In the case study an assessment of the Slovenian aircraft accident response system was made. For the purpose of evaluating the successfulness of aircraft accident intervention and effectiveness of recovery, a model of aircraft accident response system requirements has been developed. Based on non-conformances identified by the model of requirements, remedial measures are proposed for the enhancement of the aircraft accident response system operation. Criteria for the definition of the transition from accident intervention to recovery are derived from the assessment findings in a manner not to impede the aircraft accident investigation effectiveness and efficiency.
Keywords: aircraft accident, response system, intervention, recovery, investigation, crisis management
Published: 02.06.2017; Views: 740; Downloads: 270
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The importance of economic promotion for a small open economyDejan Romih
, 2014, original scientific article
Abstract: This paper discusses the importance of economic promotion for Slovenia and certain other European countries affected by the current economic crisis. For a small open economy like Slovenia, economic promotion is particularly important for several reasons. One of them is its contribution to Sloveniaʼs overall economic performance (in terms of achieving certain economic goals such as reducing unemployment).
Keywords: economic crisis, economic diplomacy, economic promotion, foreign trade, foreign trade promotion, small open economy, social crisis, Slovenia
Published: 07.07.2017; Views: 406; Downloads: 52
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