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Reconstruction of delivery positions in the city of Celje, Slovenia
Dejan Dragan, Klemen Prah, Tea Vizinger, Marko Intihar, Maja Fošner, Tomaž Kramberger, 2013, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The paper addresses the problem of the reconstruction and allocation of delivery positions in the urban area. The aim is to achieve the optimal reorganization of urban freight transport in old town core in the municipality of Celje. Optimal allocation relies on optimization based on the Monte Carlo simulation and represents a first stage of a two-stage optimization approach to re-design the existing urban freight transport. The number of optimal delivery positions is required to be as minimal as possible, which can still assure a maximal service area within the prescribed radius, while keeping the minimal walking distances of delivery personnel between the nearest delivery position and the customerʼs physical location. The main issues of the used heuristic allocation algorithm and the presentation of calculated results are provided. In the near future, the calculated delivery positions are going to be used for the purpose of physical implementation in order to improve the existing delivery transport.
Ključne besede: urban transport problems, urban freight transport, delivery, optimization, maximum location covering problems, MLCP, Monte-Carlo simulation
Objavljeno: 10.07.2015; Ogledov: 650; Prenosov: 74
.pdf Celotno besedilo (999,26 KB)
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Monte Carlo simulation-based approach to optimal bus stops allocation in the Municipality of Laško
Dejan Dragan, Tomaž Kramberger, Martin Lipičnik, 2011, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The paper addresses the problem of optimal bus stop allocation. The aim is to achieve reduction of costs on account of appropriate re-design of the process of obligatory transportation of children from their homes to the corresponding schools in the Laško municipality. The proposed algorithm relies on optimization based on the Monte Carlo simulation procedure. The number of calculated bus stops is required to be minimal possible, which can still assure maximal service area within the prescribed radius, while keeping the minimal walking distances pupils have to go across from their homes to the nearest bus stop and vice versa. The main issues of the proposed algorithm are emphasised and the working mechanism is explained. The presentation of calculated results is given and comparison with some other existing algorithms is provided. The positions of the calculated bus stops are going to be used for the purpose of physical bus stops implementation in order to decrease the current transportation costs.
Ključne besede: location problems, maximal covering problems, optimization, Monte Carlo simulation
Objavljeno: 05.06.2017; Ogledov: 379; Prenosov: 224
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,01 MB)
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Synergies between an observed port and a logistic company
Dejan Dragan, Bojan Rosi, Toni Avžner, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The paper addresses an analysis of potential synergies in collaboration between an observed Port in the Mediterranean Sea and Central-European logistic railway-services based company. Both companies have established a strategic partnership. The main motive was cooperation in rail transport, with a particular emphasis on potential synergies that would a rail traffic have brought to a port's business. For the purpose of synergies valuation under uncertain conditions, a Monte Carlo simulation-based framework with integrated discounted cash flow (DCF) model is applied. The possible values of future synergies are calculated via the DCF model by simultaneously changing values of different uncertain financial parameters at each repetition of a Monte Carlo scenario-playing mechanism. In this process, predicted forecasts of future synergetic throughputs are also used for various types of observed cargo. As it turned out, the generated synergies' values follow the approximate normal distribution. Based on statistical inference and analysis of probability intervals it was discovered that there might indeed exist certain important synergies in the collaboration between both companies. This fact has convinced us into a belief in the correctness of companies' decision to enter into such kind of strategic cooperation.
Ključne besede: port economics, financial management, valuation, discounted cash-flow model, Monte Carlo simulation, logistics
Objavljeno: 06.07.2017; Ogledov: 464; Prenosov: 68
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,22 MB)
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Business model optmization based on value management principles - the case of Krka d.d.
Gregor Gavranič, 2017, diplomsko delo

Opis: The subsequent bachelor’s thesis comprises an investment report with equity valuation of Krka, d.d. company, the largest Slovenian company and one of the leading generic pharmaceutical companies in region. Overall, the financial sector is coping with low interest rates and more and more investors are willing to enter the capital markets directly. The Slovenian equity markets was struggling to pick up the pace after the last major financial crisis, which was almost 10 years ago. The bull trend in other major and biggest markets in the world is on to set new records day by day. We try to find out if the company under scrutiny is attractive for investors and what upside potential it has in the future. The analysis is presented trough most appropriate, popular and renowned techniques that surround equity research and is followed by the creation of final recommendation. Those are Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Economic Value Added (EVA), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Relative Multiples Valuation (RMV). Additionally, the approaches like Porter’s five forces analysis, SWOT analysis, Sensitivity analysis, Altman Z-score, Piotroski F-score, Beneish M-score, and Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC) were made. Since equity markets provide a bigger risk for investors, we try to investigate how risky is a particular company and sector. The investment risks and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) will help us do that. Risks and the future business surrounding also include macroeconomic analysis, which is also performed and helps us understand the topic under discussion better.. The key part of the thesis presents the building of financial valuation model with many variables and weighting it accordingly. The final fair value price is set and commented. In the conclusion, we summarise all our findings. Furthermore, some relevant facts are exposed and projected into the forecasted period. At the end we can conclude that the Value-based Management (VBM) gives clear result and projects a path for future development. The company that was used for the research is a perfect example how VBM methods used for valuation can provide us with broader picture and inform investors about the company. On the other hand, the methods can also provide a large source of information that can be useful to the company’s management.
Ključne besede: Macroeconomic analysis, valuation methods, Monte Carlo simulation, intrinsic value, risk profile
Objavljeno: 30.11.2017; Ogledov: 1769; Prenosov: 219
.pdf Celotno besedilo (5,11 MB)

Technological valley of death as an emergent evolutionary phenomenon
Petra Fic, 2019, magistrsko delo

Opis: Perceptual researchers often argue that natural selection supports veridical perceptions, respectively those that accurately reflect the environment. They also claim that beings whose perceptions are truer are also more fit. This assumption was tested using standard tools of evolutionary game theory in a simple environment. The result was that more veridical perceptions are not necessarily more successful. In the majority of the parameter space, veridical perceptions are extinct in competition with simplified perceptions, based on adaptive behavior in a given environment. In the thesis, we build upon mentioned territorial games introduced by Mark, Marion, and Hoffman in 2010, and extend four of their territory perception and selection strategies with two novel ones that together constitute a model of technological readiness valley of death. Whenever utility of a resource is not monotonous in the amount of that resource, the technological valley of death emerges. While the development of the science behind these models is in its infancy, modeling and understanding the phenomenon may shed light on progress and related phenomena in society.
Ključne besede: evolution, perception, utility, Monte Carlo simulation, game theory
Objavljeno: 22.11.2019; Ogledov: 257; Prenosov: 34
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,56 MB)

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