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Business model optmization based on value management principles - the case of Krka d.d.
Gregor Gavranič, 2017, undergraduate thesis

Abstract: The subsequent bachelor’s thesis comprises an investment report with equity valuation of Krka, d.d. company, the largest Slovenian company and one of the leading generic pharmaceutical companies in region. Overall, the financial sector is coping with low interest rates and more and more investors are willing to enter the capital markets directly. The Slovenian equity markets was struggling to pick up the pace after the last major financial crisis, which was almost 10 years ago. The bull trend in other major and biggest markets in the world is on to set new records day by day. We try to find out if the company under scrutiny is attractive for investors and what upside potential it has in the future. The analysis is presented trough most appropriate, popular and renowned techniques that surround equity research and is followed by the creation of final recommendation. Those are Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Economic Value Added (EVA), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Relative Multiples Valuation (RMV). Additionally, the approaches like Porter’s five forces analysis, SWOT analysis, Sensitivity analysis, Altman Z-score, Piotroski F-score, Beneish M-score, and Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC) were made. Since equity markets provide a bigger risk for investors, we try to investigate how risky is a particular company and sector. The investment risks and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) will help us do that. Risks and the future business surrounding also include macroeconomic analysis, which is also performed and helps us understand the topic under discussion better.. The key part of the thesis presents the building of financial valuation model with many variables and weighting it accordingly. The final fair value price is set and commented. In the conclusion, we summarise all our findings. Furthermore, some relevant facts are exposed and projected into the forecasted period. At the end we can conclude that the Value-based Management (VBM) gives clear result and projects a path for future development. The company that was used for the research is a perfect example how VBM methods used for valuation can provide us with broader picture and inform investors about the company. On the other hand, the methods can also provide a large source of information that can be useful to the company’s management.
Keywords: Macroeconomic analysis, valuation methods, Monte Carlo simulation, intrinsic value, risk profile
Published: 30.11.2017; Views: 1403; Downloads: 204
.pdf Full text (5,11 MB)

Container throughput forecasting using dynamic factor analysis and ARIMAX model
Marko Intihar, Tomaž Kramberger, Dejan Dragan, 2017, original scientific article

Abstract: The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX) are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020). Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port.
Keywords: container throughput forecasting, ARIMAX model, dynamic factor analysis, exogenous macroeconomic indicators, time series analysis
Published: 12.12.2017; Views: 528; Downloads: 195
.pdf Full text (1,33 MB)
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