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Abstract: Electric load forecasting (ELF) is a vital process in the planning of the electricity industry and plays a crucial role in electric capacity scheduling and power systems management and, therefore, it has attracted increasing academic interest. Hence, the accuracy of electric load forecasting has great importance for energy generating capacity scheduling and power system management. This paper presents a review of forecasting methods and models for electricity load. About 45 academic papers have been used for the comparison based on specified criteria such as time frame, inputs, outputs, the scale of the project, and value. The review reveals that despite the relative simplicity of all reviewed models, the regression analysis is still widely used and efficient for long-term forecasting. As for short-term predictions, machine learning or artificial intelligence-based models such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), and Fuzzy logic are favored.
Keywords: methods, models, electric load forecasting, modeling electricity loads, electricity industry, power management, logistics
Published in DKUM: 22.08.2024; Views: 92; Downloads: 6
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Abstract: The cyclical nature of hop market pricing has been recorded since the 16th century, but the effect had never previously been documented or quantified. Using Bayesian inference in an analysis of data regarding the US hop industry collected and published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) it was possible to measure the change of inventory and acreage responsiveness to price during periods of free and markets regulated through the enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR). The data demonstrated a delayed, reduced, or total lack of responsiveness in the change of direction of acreage and inventory in response to directional changes in season average price (SAP) during free market periods. This reaction was referred to as the delayed surplus response (DSR). The data also demonstrated the absence of the DSR during periods in which proprietary varieties reached greater than 50% of US acreage and production. Patented plant varieties offer a legal monopoly over that intellectual property (IP). The absence of the DSR during periods in which a majority of US acreage and production were proprietary indicated a strong degree of control over supply. By extension, the owners of proprietary varieties demonstrated the ability to influence price at desired levels.
Keywords: Bayesian inference, brewing industry, disequilibrium, hop market, proprietary variety
Published in DKUM: 11.07.2024; Views: 71; Downloads: 4
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Abstract: The reusage of water and steam utilities plays a key role in the mitigation of decarbonising and climate change, including reduced fossil-fuel energy consumption and reducing the dependence on natural gas. The water condensates can be used for utility and heat-recovery systems by an integrated fork technique, achieving economic benefits and a complete circular economy, presented in two steps. The main novelty of this fork technique includes the determination of a regulated heat flow rate for the integration between the dryer and evaporator, which enables an evaporation of the same water mass flow as by the existing evaporating system, which is performed in the first step. The main significance of this technique presents the manner of a fork system as a superstructure for waste condensates’ collection separately and combinedly, and sustainable reusage's alternatives of the condensates, such as steam or electricity cogeneration, presented in the second step. This technique is carried out in two steps, including real-simulated results using an Aspen Plus® simulator. This approach is illustrated using an existing sugar production, which is selected as the waste mass and energy reusage from the evaporator and dryer for low-pressure steam production, generating a possible increase profit of 1.9 MEUR/a. The saving of the heat flow rate after the integrated dryer with evaporator should be 15,816 kW, or 73 %, presenting as a percentage.
Keywords: steam utility, water condensate, fork technique, circular economy, integrated units, food industry
Published in DKUM: 10.05.2024; Views: 217; Downloads: 10
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Abstract: Nowadays, data on tourist profiles are created by large platforms that exchange and trade the collected data with each other without sharing it with service providers (hotels, restaurants, etc.). Providers are thus increasingly becoming mere "executors" and cannot devote themselves to the guest as they once did. Using the example of Collaboration Impact Token and Digital Online Tourist Identity, the article suggests the development of a sys-tem with use of key enabling technologies from Industry 4.0 that will offer guests a personalised service, reward them for positive behavior if they are contributing to the positive effects of tourism and redirect them on less burdened areas with the aim to offer a significantly better tourist experience and the development of more balanced sustainable development.
Keywords: innovative incentives, tourism 4.0, digitalising collaboration, sustainability, Industry 4.0
Published in DKUM: 24.01.2024; Views: 206; Downloads: 9
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Abstract: Over the past decades, container transportation management has become an important part of the global maritime industry. Due to an ever-increasing movement of containers across the globe in line with the economic boom, the trade imbalance and issues related to empty containers have become inevitable. The accumulation of empty containers in specific ports not only causes a waste of money but also increases the environmental footprint. Accordingly, the urgent need for empty container management has been gaining more attention than ever before, as the shipping companies recognized that more revenues are always derived from a good repositioning strategy. In this respect, this thesis described state-of-the-art of empty container management, focusing on the practices concerning the movement of empty containers that are varied between organizational policies, technical solutions, and optimization applications. With the development of computer-aided systems, the combination of optimization and simulation models has been proposed to tackle the maritime empty container problem. The thesis shows how the strengths of optimization-based simulation can be integrated to provide high-quality solutions with low computational costs. Agent-based modelling was developed to model the global movements of empty containers, providing realistic details of interactions among entities and characteristics of components within the system. The model was applied between ports in the Middle East and Asia for one of the biggest shipping lines worldwide. By using simulated annealing (SA), the best sequence for moving containers can be determined. The results comparison demonstrate that the proposed optimised repositioning strategy can significantly reduce the shipping line’s costs and make full use of empty containers in the planning horizon.
Keywords: shipping industry, container transportation management, empty container repositioning, simulation, optimization, agent-based modelling
Published in DKUM: 08.12.2023; Views: 572; Downloads: 22
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