1. International energy security risk index - analysis of the methodological settingsIztok Podbregar, Goran Šimić, Mirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović, Polona Šprajc, 2020, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The main objective of this paper is to analyze model settings of the International Energy Security Risk Index developed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The study was performed using stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and Promax oblique rotation. The conclusion of the regression analysis shows that Crude Oil Price and Global Coal Reserves are sufficient to explain 90% of the variance of the Index. However, if a model that explains 100% of the variance of the Index is chosen and other variables are added, Global Coal Reserves loses importance due to the presence of other parameters in which it is contained. Regardless of the chosen model of analysis, it is evident that there is room for revising the Index and removing variables that do not contribute to its precision. The research showed that the main disadvantage of the variables that make up the Index rests with the fact that the variables are of different degrees of generality, that is, one parameter is contained in other parameters (unclear which other). The research covers data for 25 countries over a 26-year period, with the first year of the research being 1980 and the last 2016 (the latest available report). Ključne besede: international energy security risk index, analysis, stepwise regression, principal component analysis, Promax oblique rotation Objavljeno v DKUM: 04.02.2025; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 3
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2. The international energy security risk index in sustainable energy and economy transition decision making - a reliability analysisIztok Podbregar, Goran Šimić, Mirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović, Damjan Maletič, Polona Šprajc, 2020, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients. Ključne besede: energy and economy transition, decision making, international energy security risk index, multiple regression analysis, multicollinearity test, multicollinearity test with variance inflation factors Objavljeno v DKUM: 04.02.2025; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 2
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3. Electricity prices and consumer behavior, case study Serbia - randomized control trials methodIztok Podbregar, Sanja Filipović, Mirjana Radovanović, Olga Mirković-Isaeva, Polona Šprajc, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The aim of this research was to identify energy saving instructions effect on household’s electricity consumption. The research was conducted using Randomized Control Trials, which implied defining a treatment and control group on a sample of 330 households. The research was carried out in Republic of Serbia, where electricity prices are the lowest in Europe and electricity is used inefficiently. For quantitative analysis of data, the Difference in Difference method was used, which compares the changes in electricity consumption over time between the treatment and control group and estimates the overall impact of the energy saving instructions. The research showed that in situations where electricity price is very low, energy saving information does not have the significant impact on change in consumer behavior. However, inefficient use of electricity might be due to the different efficiency of heating devices used. Not only that the low impact of information on energy saving habits may be a consequence of the low will to change habit, but also of the impossibility to change the habit (unless changing the heating device, but this implies expenditures). Results can be used for consideration of changes in organization and regulation of the electricity market in all South Eastern European countries (SEE). Ključne besede: electricity consumption, consumersʹ behavior, randomized control trials method, difference method, case study, Serbia Objavljeno v DKUM: 10.10.2024; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 5
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4. Decarbonisation of Eastern European economies : monitoring, economic, social and security concernsMirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović, Simonida Vukadinović, Milovan Trbojević, Iztok Podbregar, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Background
Decarbonisation of the European economy is one of the main strategic goals of energy transition in the European Union (EU), which aims to become a leader in this process by 2050 and to include other European countries making thus the European continent the first carbon neutral region in the world. Although decarbonisation is an important goal of the EU, the models for monitoring the progress of this process have not yet been clearly defined, and views on the social, economic, and security implications in terms of prioritising decarbonisation are conflicting. The main objective of this paper is to determine the methodological correctness of the existing method of decarbonisation monitoring, to develop a new monitoring model indicating the differences in the EU and European countries that are non-EU and to point out the underlying social, economic and security implications that must certainly find their place in the decision-making process in this field.
Results
The main results showed that there is no clearly defined model for monitoring the success of decarbonisation, while the indicators that are commonly used for this purpose make a model that, as the analysis shows—is methodologically incorrect. In the case of EU countries, the following indicators proved to be the most reliable: consumption-based CO2 and share in global CO2. For non-EU countries, the best monitoring indicators are CO2 per unit of GDP, consumption-based CO2, and renewable energy consumption. These indicators can explain 99% of the variance in decarbonisation success.
Conclusions
The basic conclusion of the paper is that even before the implementation, the decarbonisation monitoring model should be defined and methodologically tested, and the use of a single model for all EU countries or for all countries is not recommended. It is proposed to simplify the monitoring model, with an emphasis on monitoring of consumption-based CO2, which proved to be the most efficient in all sampled countries. The current method of monitoring is based exclusively on environmentally related indicators while ignoring the fact that decarbonisation is associated with almost all aspects of development. The additional social, economic and security aspects need to be developed and included in the further monitoring process. Ključne besede: decarbonisation, Eastern European economies, monitoring, social implications, security aspects Objavljeno v DKUM: 02.07.2024; Ogledov: 144; Prenosov: 14
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5. Ekosistem organizacij v dobi digitalizacije : konferenčni zbornik2019, zbornik recenziranih znanstvenih prispevkov na mednarodni ali tuji konferenci Opis: Tehnologija razvija in spodbuja različna področja delovanja organizacij ter spreminja ustaljene okvire poslovnega sveta v smislu digitalnega. Ekosistem organizacij se skozi različne plasti delovanja posameznika, družbe, nacionalnih in globalnih okvirov prepleta z osnovno celico družbe. Zagotavlja osnovo za preživetje in trajnost. Zaradi kulturnih, družbenih in ekonomskih sprememb, ki so med drugim tudi pod vplivom digitalnih tehnologij, je svet prešel v pozitivne spremembe življenja zaposlenih, organizacij in družbe nasploh. Povezovanje organizacij v ekosisteme pomeni pot do kompleksnih in neizogibnih povezav, ki ustvarjajo možnosti za dolgoročno povezovanje in moč organizacij. Z usmerjenostjo v inoviranje delovanja s podporo različnih organizacij in ustvarjanjem ekosistemov kot poslovnih modelov, organizacijske vede vnašajo nove principe delovanja v smeri trajnostnega razvoja in neposredne povezljivosti tehnologije s človekom. 38. mednarodna konferenca o razvoju organizacijskih znanosti v letu 2019 prinaša nov zagon na področju tako dojemanja posameznika kot bistvenega člena organizacij kot tehnologije, ki spodbuja razvoj različnih vidikov povezanih z digitalnimi spremembami. Digitalno podprti zaposleni, digitalno podprto delo in digitalna podpora tehnologije ustvarja nove trende organizacij, ki pa se vedno znova vračajo v bit svojega delovanja – ekosistem kot paradigmo mreženja in povezovanja posameznikov in organizacij. Ključne besede: ekosistem, organizacijske vede, digitalizacija, trajnost, mednarodna konferenca Objavljeno v DKUM: 31.05.2019; Ogledov: 2327; Prenosov: 683
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