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Spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty on adult and youth unemployment
Silvo Dajčman, Alenka Kavkler, Natalia Levenko, Dejan Romih, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The paper studies the effects of foreign (the US, the UK and the Chinese) and domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on unemployment in Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The analysis is run separately for the rates of adult and youth unemployment. Impulse responses derived from vector autoregressive models show that the magnitudes of the responses of the adult and youth segments of the labour market are quite different. Following an uncertainty shock, the youth unemployment rate increases significantly more than the adult unemployment rate. This is the case for France, Italy and Spain. The German labour market seems to be resistant to foreign (except Chinese) and domestic EPU shocks, while the remaining labour markets, foremost the Spanish and Italian ones, are susceptible to uncertainty shocks, especially to the US EPU shocks.
Ključne besede: economic policy uncertainty, youth unemployment, adult unemployment, spillover effects, impulse responses
Objavljeno v DKUM: 26.09.2023; Ogledov: 270; Prenosov: 15
.pdf Celotno besedilo (3,89 MB)
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The development of unemployment in NUTS II region of Eastern Slovakia
Radomír Babiak, Martin Rosič, 2011, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Eastern Slovakia belongs to the most undeveloped NUTS II regions of the European Union. This region reaches high level of the unemployment rate, what together with the low production of GDP per capita forms unfavourable living conditions for its inhabitants. This article studies the development of the unemployment rate and the partial structures of unemployment in the region. It identifies key factors which affect the unemployment. It turns the attention to the potential of the region in the fight against the unemployment, from the point of view of its macro-regional and meso-regional position in the European space. It identifies specific subregions within the Eastern Slovakia and analyses its intraregional disparities in the context of labour market stability.
Ključne besede: Eastern Slovakia, unemployment, unemployment rate
Objavljeno v DKUM: 04.04.2018; Ogledov: 932; Prenosov: 106
.pdf Celotno besedilo (663,44 KB)
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The influence of war on the dynamics of unemployment in Banovina (Croatia)
Zoran Stiperski, Zdenko Braičić, 2009, pregledni znanstveni članek

Opis: This paper deals with the effects of economic transition and the Croatian war for independence (the Homeland War) on the stagnation and decline of economic activities, which resulted in mass unemployment. This problem is analysed in the case of Banovina, a traditionally underdeveloped region that was occupied during the war by Serb aggressor forces. A comparison of the dynamics of unemployment in Banovina, and its structural characteristics, with average trends and traits in Croatia provides insight into some of the developmental problems that burden this region.
Ključne besede: Banovina, war devastation, economic stagnation, unemployment, structural traits
Objavljeno v DKUM: 26.03.2018; Ogledov: 899; Prenosov: 85
.pdf Celotno besedilo (156,08 KB)
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Impact of population ageing on unemployment and entrepreneurial activity : the case of Slovenia
Marjetka Troha, Žiga Čepar, 2015, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The main aim of the research was to identify the elements of a suitable organisational educational model for tourism in Slovenia. Our research was based on the need of inner circular reflexive performance of the individual in the tourism education model, institutionalised concept of education, which is viewed by outer reflexive model of tourism educational institutions performance and functional practical interaction of individuals and tourism institutions at the development of innovative potentials in the field of tourism. Tendencies to develop complex and qualitative services coming from permanent strengthening of innovative potential of tourism services are common in this field. It is necessary to develop a suitable model in the field of tourism education that places an individual in the educational process taking into account his/her conscious reflection, rational reflection and acquired motivation for solving complex projects in various levels of tourism. Suitable tourism education model, which is level-structured, is expanded in two ways. It includes the active role of an individual in rationalising practical knowledge and strengthening the innovative potential in developing his/her competences, and the role of tourism education institutions. The organisational cultural dimension can be observed as dual activity structure distinguishing between conscious reflection of the external environment on the level of educational institution and internal practical consciousness on the level of individual development of competences. Giddens structuration theory is used as a conceptual frame explaining the organisational-cultural dimensions of suitably structured educational model for tourism in Slovenia. The conclusion is based on the fact that an individual does not acknowledge the multilevel structure of study at higher education where there is an absence of conscious, practical and motivational reflection. Organisational cultural environment in the field of tourism education in Slovenia prefers practical and functional ways of acquiring competences on a higher and postgraduate (Master’s) level of study. Due to the structured changes implemented by the Bologna process, competences are not realised on the higher education level but on the postgraduate (Master’s) level, which demands a systematic review and a suitable education model change.
Ključne besede: unemployment, entrepreneurship, population ageing, labour market, Slovenian municipalities
Objavljeno v DKUM: 30.11.2017; Ogledov: 1127; Prenosov: 162
.pdf Celotno besedilo (858,36 KB)
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Kalman filter or VAR models to predict unemployment rate in Romania?
Mihaela Simionescu, 2015, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: This paper brings to light an economic problem that frequently appears in practice: For the same variable, more alternative forecasts are proposed, yet the decision-making process requires the use of a single prediction. Therefore, a forecast assessment is necessary to select the best prediction. The aim of this research is to propose some strategies for improving the unemployment rate forecast in Romania by conducting a comparative accuracy analysis of unemployment rate forecasts based on two quantitative methods: Kalman filter and vector-auto-regressive (VAR) models. The first method considers the evolution of unemployment components, while the VAR model takes into account the interdependencies between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. According to the Granger causality test, the inflation rate in the first difference is a cause of the unemployment rate in the first difference, these data sets being stationary. For the unemployment rate forecasts for 2010-2012 in Romania, the VAR models (in all variants of VAR simulations) determined more accurate predictions than Kalman filter based on two state space models for all accuracy measures. According to mean absolute scaled error, the dynamic-stochastic simulations used in predicting unemployment based on the VAR model are the most accurate. Another strategy for improving the initial forecasts based on the Kalman filter used the adjusted unemployment data transformed by the application of the Hodrick-Prescott filter. However, the use of VAR models rather than different variants of the Kalman filter methods remains the best strategy in improving the quality of the unemployment rate forecast in Romania. The explanation of these results is related to the fact that the interaction of unemployment with inflation provides useful information for predictions of the evolution of unemployment related to its components (i.e., natural unemployment and cyclical component).
Ključne besede: forecasts, accuracy, Kalman filter, Hodrick-Prescott filter, VAR models, unemployment rate
Objavljeno v DKUM: 13.11.2017; Ogledov: 1692; Prenosov: 376
.pdf Celotno besedilo (773,07 KB)
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Entrepreneurship as a solution to the unemployment problem
Miha Marič, Mitja Jeraj, Jasmina Žnidaršič, 2010, strokovni članek

Opis: The relation between entrepreneurship and unemployment has been an interesting topic for researchers for quite some time. In the time of global recession and mass layoffs different countries try to stimulate their residents to work on their ideas and to test themselves on the open market using various forms of subsidizing. It is important to point out that entrepreneurship does not constitute such a social security as employment in large companies. Entrepreneurship is not just a mixture of ideas, desires for success and a trend away from employment, integration with the right business partners and the issues of obtaining the initial capital, but largely also depends on the laws in each country and the infrastructure which this country offers. Countries with better entrepreneurial infrastructure (technology parks, university incubators, etc.) are definitely more open to competition and entrepreneurial activities than others. Globally interesting and internationally comparable study made each year by GEM (Global Entrepreneurship Monitor) (2008) notes that more and more people around the world are dealing with entrepreneurship. Schools for entrepreneurship are an important link between theoretical knowledge and practical involvement in the market. The international economic crisis has further accelerated the flow of restructuring, while unemployment continues to rise. It is therefore necessary to adopt measures that will help people with self-employment and, ultimately, in achieving a dignified life. Our contribution will be built on the hypothesis that where there is a higher rate of unemployment, more people will transit into entrepreneurship and where there is a higher rate of entrepreneurship there will be a lower level of unemployment. To test our hypothesis we will use available data from different countries and measure the correlations between the rate of entrepreneurship and the rate of unemployment and make a regression analysis of both values.
Ključne besede: unemployment, entrepreneurship, transition, state policy, culture
Objavljeno v DKUM: 24.07.2017; Ogledov: 1352; Prenosov: 201
.pdf Celotno besedilo (707,73 KB)
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Eva Lorenčič, 2013, diplomsko delo

Opis: Unemployment negatively affects the government budget and inflicts costs on the unemployed individuals as well as on the society as a whole in many ways. The direct costs of unemployment for the state budget arise due to the benefits paid out to the unemployed, and due to foregone direct and indirect taxes. On the level of an individual, nonmonetary costs are a multiple of the monetary ones, which indicates that employment plays a central role in a person’s well-being. Unemployment has a spill-over effect on the society as a whole and affects not only the unemployed, but also the employed population, particularly in the areas experiencing high unemployment rates. We take the case study of Germany, the country often used as a quintessence of how to overcome the problem of massive unemployment. Before the four Hartz reforms, which were implemented in years 2003, 2004 and 2005, Germany was characterized as the »sick man of Europe« owing to its exploding levels of unemployment, dysfunctional labor market, unsustainable social budget, and rising public debt. As the reforms were put into force, the situation in the German labor market underwent a 360° turnaround and became portrayed as the »German economic miracle«. The true effects of the reforms fully transpired in the economic and financial crisis of 2008/2009, when most countries experienced escalating unemployment rates, while Germany kept them at bay. Studies show that flexible working-time arrangements and short-time work have played a major role in inhibiting lay-offs in German companies during the recent crisis, and hence in preventing a spike in unemployment rates, which we use as one of the points that validate our Model of employment. The government subsidies made it possible for companies to reduce the working hours of their employees instead of laying them off. An important feature of the German labor market is a comparatively high percentage of part-time workers (around 25% in years 2006–2011), which also explains the low unemployment rates Germany has been recording since the reforms were introduced. The reforms cut the amount and duration of unemployment benefits, which gave the unemployed more incentives to find a job. A negative aspect of the reform may be an increased divide between the core work force and the marginal workers, which intensifies social differences and is currently on the agenda of German politics. Also some researches stress the importance of social cohesion and that the risks and opportunities in the labor market should be more evenly distributed. In the accompanying explanations to the Model of employment, some of the successful measures of Germany’s Hartz reforms may be spotted, while at the same time we avoid the »mistakes« of these reforms, thus making sure that social differences among people would narrow down upon the real-life implementation of the Model. When the number of job vacancies sharply exceeds the number of unemployed, and when there are poor prospects of new job openings in the near future, the only viable solution to the problem of unemployment is to reduce the working hours of the existing employees. The Model of employment that we develop represents a possible solution to the problem of unemployment and thus addresses the need to reduce the costs of unemployment to the unemployed individual, to the state budget, and to the society as a whole. The crux of the Model is a re-distribution of the total number of workplaces and total annual working hours among the »new actively employed population«, which comprises all persons having the potential to become or stay employed or self-employed in a given year. The model allows for a flexible arrangement of working hours – from four and up to eight hours per employee per day. Our solution will release the working hours, make them available to the currently unemployed, and hence ensure a more equitable distribution of income and work load amongst the population. In addition, as the workers will be less tired and stressed-out, their productivity will in
Ključne besede: unemployment, labor force, labor market, part-time employment, full-time employment, labor market flexibility, costs of unemployment, Hartz reforms
Objavljeno v DKUM: 30.08.2013; Ogledov: 2440; Prenosov: 166
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,23 MB)

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