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1.
Financial system and agricultural growth in Ukraine
Olena Oliynyk, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background/Purpose: An effective financial system should increase the efficiency of economic activities. This study provides evidence regarding the importance of financial development for agricultural growth in Ukraine. Methodology: We used non-integrated and integral indicators, time series and regression analysis to investigate the link between the financial development and agricultural growth. Results: The results based on integral indicators shows that the financial development does not affect agricultural growth in Ukraine. The study based on non-integrated indicators, which characterizes various aspects of the financial system’s banking component and agricultural growth, provided a significant link between the financial system and agriculture growth. The regression models revealed if bank deposits to GDP (%) increases the value added per worker in agriculture increases exponentially. The results of the study indicate that, agriculture is more sensitive to lending changes than the vast majority of other sectors of the economy. The increasing lending of one UAH (Ukrainian hryvnia) resulted in retail turnover growth of 1.62 UAH, while agricultural gross output, growth was UAH 5.06. Conclusion: Our results reveal a positive relationship between financial system’s banking component and agriculture growth in Ukraine. The results indicate the necessity for continued research into further developing universal methodological approaches of appraising the nexus of the financial system’s banking component on agriculture growth in general as well separate farm groups. The results of our study has important implications on policy making authorities efforts to stimulate agricultural growth by improving the efficiency of the financial system’s banking component.
Ključne besede: agricultural growth, the integral indicator of the agricultural growth, the integral indicator of the financial development, time series analysis, regression analysis, financial system
Objavljeno: 04.05.2018; Ogledov: 671; Prenosov: 272
.pdf Celotno besedilo (762,63 KB)
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2.
Container throughput forecasting using dynamic factor analysis and ARIMAX model
Marko Intihar, Tomaž Kramberger, Dejan Dragan, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX) are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020). Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port.
Ključne besede: container throughput forecasting, ARIMAX model, dynamic factor analysis, exogenous macroeconomic indicators, time series analysis
Objavljeno: 12.12.2017; Ogledov: 878; Prenosov: 288
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,33 MB)
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