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Financial system and agricultural growth in Ukraine
Olena Oliynyk, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background/Purpose: An effective financial system should increase the efficiency of economic activities. This study provides evidence regarding the importance of financial development for agricultural growth in Ukraine. Methodology: We used non-integrated and integral indicators, time series and regression analysis to investigate the link between the financial development and agricultural growth. Results: The results based on integral indicators shows that the financial development does not affect agricultural growth in Ukraine. The study based on non-integrated indicators, which characterizes various aspects of the financial system’s banking component and agricultural growth, provided a significant link between the financial system and agriculture growth. The regression models revealed if bank deposits to GDP (%) increases the value added per worker in agriculture increases exponentially. The results of the study indicate that, agriculture is more sensitive to lending changes than the vast majority of other sectors of the economy. The increasing lending of one UAH (Ukrainian hryvnia) resulted in retail turnover growth of 1.62 UAH, while agricultural gross output, growth was UAH 5.06. Conclusion: Our results reveal a positive relationship between financial system’s banking component and agriculture growth in Ukraine. The results indicate the necessity for continued research into further developing universal methodological approaches of appraising the nexus of the financial system’s banking component on agriculture growth in general as well separate farm groups. The results of our study has important implications on policy making authorities efforts to stimulate agricultural growth by improving the efficiency of the financial system’s banking component.
Ključne besede: agricultural growth, the integral indicator of the agricultural growth, the integral indicator of the financial development, time series analysis, regression analysis, financial system
Objavljeno v DKUM: 04.05.2018; Ogledov: 950; Prenosov: 326
.pdf Celotno besedilo (762,63 KB)
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Container throughput forecasting using dynamic factor analysis and ARIMAX model
Marko Intihar, Tomaž Kramberger, Dejan Dragan, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX) are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020). Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port.
Ključne besede: container throughput forecasting, ARIMAX model, dynamic factor analysis, exogenous macroeconomic indicators, time series analysis
Objavljeno v DKUM: 12.12.2017; Ogledov: 1298; Prenosov: 352
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,33 MB)
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Forecasting the primary demand for a beer brand using time series analysis
Danjel Bratina, Armand Faganel, 2008, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Market research often uses data (i.e. marketing mix variables) that is equally spaced over time. Time series theory is perfectly suited to study this phenomena's dependency on time. It is used for forecasting and causality analysis, but their greatest strength is in studying the impact of a discrete event in time, which makes it a powerful tool for marketers. This article introduces the basic concepts behind time series theory and illustrates its current application in marketing research. We use time series analysis to forecast the demand for beer on the Slovenian market using scanner data from two major retail stores. Before our analysis, only broader time spans have been used to perform time series analysis (weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly data). In our study we analyse daily data, which is supposed to carry a lot of ‘noise’. We show that - even with noise carrying data - a better model can be computed using time series forecasting, explaining much more variance compared to regular regression. Our analysis also confirms the effect of short term sales promotions on beer demand, which is in conformity with other studies in this field.
Ključne besede: market research, time series forecasting, beer demand
Objavljeno v DKUM: 30.11.2017; Ogledov: 699; Prenosov: 295
.pdf Celotno besedilo (395,07 KB)
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Introducing nonlinear time series analysis in undergraduate courses
Matjaž Perc, 2006, strokovni članek

Opis: This article is written for undergraduate students and teachers who would like to get familiar with basic nonlinear time series analysis methods. We present a step-by-step study of a simple example and provide user-friendly programs that allow an easy reproduction of presented results. In particular, we study an artificial time series generated by the Lorenz system. The mutual information and false nearest neighbour method are explained in detail, and used to obtain the best possible attractor reconstruction. Subsequently, the times series is tested for stationarity and determinism, which are both important properties that assure correct interpretation of invariant quantities that can be extracted from the data set. Finally, as the most prominent invariant quantity that allows distinguishing between regular and chaotic behaviour, we calculate the maximal Lyapunov exponent. By following the above steps, we are able to convincingly determine that the Lorenz system is chaotic directly from the generated time series, without the need to use the differential equations. Throughout the paper, emphasis on clear-cut guidance and a hands-on approach is given in order to make the reproduction of presented results possible also for undergraduates, and thus encourage them to get familiar with the presented theory.
Ključne besede: nonlinear systems, nonlinear time series analyses, physics education
Objavljeno v DKUM: 07.06.2012; Ogledov: 1348; Prenosov: 31
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Singing of Neoconocephalus robustus as an example of deterministic chaos in insects
Tina P. Benko, Matjaž Perc, 2007, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: We use nonlinear time series analysis methods to analyse the dynamics of the sound-producing apparatus of the katydid Neoconocephalus robustus. We capture the dynamics by analysing a recording of the singing activity. First, we reconstruct the phase space from the sound recording and test it against determinism and stationarity. After confirming determinism and stationarity, we show that the maximal Lyapunov exponent of the series is positive, which is a strong indicator for the chaotic behaviour of the system. We discuss that methods of nonlinear time series analysis can yield instructive insights and foster the understanding of acoustic communication among insects.
Ključne besede: chaotic systems, chaos, time series, time series analyses, insect sounds, katydid
Objavljeno v DKUM: 07.06.2012; Ogledov: 1521; Prenosov: 409
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,05 MB)
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Establishing the stochastic nature of intracellular calcium oscillations from experimental data
Matjaž Perc, Anne K. Green, C. Jane Dixon, Marko Marhl, 2008, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Calcium has been established as a key messenger in both intra- and intercellular signaling. Experimentally observed intracellular calcium responses to different agonists show a variety of behaviors from simple spiking to complex oscillatory regimes. Here we study typical experimental traces of calcium oscillations in hepatocytes obtained in response to phenylephrine and ATP. The traces were analyzed with methods of nonlinear time series analysis in order to determine the stochastic/deterministic nature of the intracellular calcium oscillations. Despite the fact that the oscillations appear, visually, to be deterministic yet perturbed by noise, our analyses provide strong evidence that the measured calcium traces in hepatocytes are prevalently of stochastic nature. In particular, bursting calcium oscillations are temporally correlated Gaussian series distorted by a monotonic, instantaneous, time-independent function, whilst the spiking behavior appears to have a dynamical nonlinear component whereby the overall determinism level is still low. The biological importance of this finding is discussed in relation to the mechanisms incorporated in mathematical models as well as the role of stochasticity and determinism at cellular and tissue levels which resemble typical statistical and thermodynamic effects in physics.
Ključne besede: dynamic systems, stochastic processes, cellular signaling, calcium oscillations, time series analyses, noise, temporal correlation
Objavljeno v DKUM: 07.06.2012; Ogledov: 1477; Prenosov: 119
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Matej Taferner, 2010, delo diplomskega seminarja/zaključno seminarsko delo/naloga

Opis: V diplomskem seminarju, ki sem ga napisal, sem se v prvem delu osredotočil na opisovanje neposrednih tujih investicij (NTI), nato sem nadaljeval s predstavitvijo izbranih teorij, kot sta npr. Heckscher-Ohlinov model in Dunningova teorija, na koncu pa prikazal še vplive NTI na izbrana gospodarstva (Kitajska, Poljska, Češka, Slovanška, Madžarska in Slovenija). V prvem delu sem tako med drugim izpostavil dejstvo, da so NTI sestavni del procesa globalizacije in da so tekom opazovanega obdobja od leta 1987 oziroma 1995 do 2007 postale tudi ena izmed najpogostejših in najbolj dinamičnih vrst toka kapitala v analiziranih državah (Kitajska, Poljska, Češka, Slovanška, Madžarska in Slovenija). V drugem delu sem predstavil korelacijo med NTI in njihovimi vplivi na rast oziroma upad ekonomskih variabel. Celotna predstavitev poteka v več sklopih. Z uporabo podatkovnih baz, kot so European Bank for Reconstruction and Development database, World Development Indicators Database from the World Bank, The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data in Chinese National Bureau of Statistics yearbooks data sem eliminiral možnost uporabe nepreverjenih in statistično neenotnih podatkov, kot dodatno pomoč pa so mi predstavljale raziskave in članki priznanih avtorjev, kot so Robert E. Lipsey, Blomstrom, Kokko, Dunning, Gujarati in drugi Eden izmed načinov analize vpliva in korelacije NTI na različne ekonomske variable je uporaba ekonometričnih metod. Z uporabo regresijske enačbe sem tako poskušal razložiti in prikazati vpliv in korelacijo med neposrednimi tujimi investicijami (NTI) na ravni bruto domačega proizvoda (BDP), rast izvoza, stopnjo brezposelnosti in vpliva na okolje. Pri tem sem si pomagal s postavitvijo štirih hipotez. Hipoteze so bile sledeče: hipoteza 1 je temeljila na predpostavki, da prilivi neposrednih tujih naložb povečajo ravni BDP, hipoteza 2 je predpostavljala, da NTI povečajo izvozno dejavnost, hipoteza 3 je temeljila na predpostavki, da NTI vplivajo na zmanjšanje ravni brezposelnosti, in hipoteza 4 na predpostavki, da se ravni onesnaženosti (CO2 emisije) povečujejo s pritokom neposrednih tujih naložb. Pri prikazovanju rezultatov in matematičnih operacijah sem uporabljal linearni ekonometrični model. Ker sem predvideval, da bodo BDP, izvoz in brezposelnost povezani/korelirani, sem uporabil SEM model (structural equation model), medtem ko sem zaradi raznolikosti podatkov le-te zbiral s kombinacijo »time series and cross section« metode. Čeprav so spremenljivke nenormalno porazdeljene glede na elementa asimetrije in sploščenosti, mi ta nenavadna porazdelitev ni onemogočila neizvedljivost testa linearne regresije. Zaključek raziskave temelji na dejstvu, da obstajajo tako pozitivni kot negativni učinki NTI, katerih glavni nositelj so transnacionalna podjetja (TNP). Čeprav v osnovnem delu raziskave nisem eksplicitno izpostavil negativnih in pozitivnih učinkov NTI, je splošno znano dejstvo, da določeni ljudje iz stroke neposredne tuje investicije podpirajo, medtem ko jih drugi ne, saj menijo, da le-te niso pozitivne, oziroma lahko v določeni meri državi tudi škodijo. K mojemu povzetku ideje ekonomistov, ki imajo NTI za pozitivne oziroma negativne, pa je prispevalo dejstvo, da je osnovni del raziskave pokazal, da je zelo malo spremenljivk, pri katerih je bila ugotovljena zelo visoka korelacija. Natančnejša analiza je pokazala, da so NTI močno negativno korelirane z onesnaževanjem, kar je v nasprotju z domnevo, da bi povečanje tujih neposrednih investicij pripeljalo do večjega onesnaženja. Individualni test linearne regresije pa je na primeru Poljske pokazal, da je povečanje NTI dejansko imelo negativen vpliv na gospodarsko rast v tej državi, čeprav ta ugotovitev ni v skladu z ekonomsko teorijo in izvirno hipotezo, da pritoki NTI povečajo ravni bruto domačega proizvoda. Tako sem po svoji presoji zaključil, da imajo NTI pozitivno-negativni učinek. V zaključku sem tudi izpostavil, da na končni rezultat, ki ga imajo NTI na neko ekonomsko spre
Ključne besede: Neposredne tuje investicije (NTI), izbrane srednjeevropske države, Kitajska, korelacija, rast bruto domačega proizvoda (BDP), rast izvoza, brezposelnost, emisije (CO2), statistične metode za analizo podatkov, regresijska enačba, linearni ekonometrični model, structural equation model (SEM), time series, cross section.
Objavljeno v DKUM: 02.12.2010; Ogledov: 3016; Prenosov: 220
.pdf Celotno besedilo (460,84 KB)

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