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Decision-making in sustainable energy transition in Southeastern Europe : probabilistic network-based model
Nena Hribar, Goran Šimić, Simonida Vukadinović, Polona Šprajc, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background: Sustainable energy transition of a country is complex and long-term process, which requires decision-making in all stages and at all levels, including a large number of different factors, with different causality. The main objective of this paper is the development of a probabilistic model for decision-making in sustainable energy transition in developing countries of SE Europe. The model will be developed according to the specificities of the countries for which it is intended—SE Europe. These are countries where energy transition is slower and more difficult due to many factors: high degree of uncertainty, low transparency, corruption, investment problems, insufficiently reliable data, lower level of economic development, high level of corruption and untrained human resources. All these factors are making decision-making more challenging and demanding. Methods: Research was done by using content analysis, artificial intelligence methods, software development method and testing. The model was developed by using MSBNx—Microsoft Research’s Bayesian Network Authoring and Evaluation Tool. Results: Due to the large number of insufficiently clear, but interdependent factors, the model is developed on the principle of probabilistic (Bayesian) networks of factors of interest. The paper presents the first model for supporting decision-making in the field of energy sustainability for the region of Southeastern Europe, which is based on the application of Bayesian Networks. Conclusion: Testing of the developed model showed certain characteristics, discussed in paper. The application of developed model will make it possible to predict the short-term and long-term consequences that may occur during energy transition by varying these factors. Recommendations are given for further development of the model, based on Bayesian networks.
Ključne besede: sustainable energy transition, SE Europe, decision-making, Bayesian networks
Objavljeno v DKUM: 19.08.2024; Ogledov: 88; Prenosov: 10
.pdf Celotno besedilo (3,93 MB)
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2.
Small hydropower plants in Western Balkan countries : status, controversies and a proposed model for decision making
Barbara Pavlakovič Farrell, Andrea Okanovic, Bojana Vasić, Jelena Jesic, Polona Šprajc, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background: As the countries of the Western Balkans (WB) have committed to sustainable development, the process of regulatory and economic adjustment is underway. As part of the aforementioned fact, the WB countries have commenced exploitation of energy from renewable sources, among which hydropower is the most important. The main objective of the study is to analyse the status of renewable energy transition in the WB region, focusing on the construction and exploitation of small hydropower plants (SHPPs), as well as a proposal for an original model for decision making in this field, based on a multidimensional decision-making space. Namely, in most cases, there is resistance to the construction of SHPPs in the WB territory, as well as divided opinion among investors, companies, environmental movements, academia, and citizens on this issue. This shows that the entire decision-making process has to be reviewed and re-designed. Results: The results of the study show that the construction of SHPPs caused damage to environmentally protected areas, living conditions of local communities, touristic and agricultural potential. All of the foregoing matters have led to mass protests by citizens and a high degree of mistrust so that the future of SHPPs in the WB is extremely uncertain. The assessment of the acceptability of existing SHPPs through the proposed model showed that 74% of SHPPs cannot be considered acceptable from the aspect of the location where they were built, and from the aspect of the impact on the quality of life of the local population. Accordingly, this paper provides suggestions for much-needed improvements. Conclusions: The construction of SHPPs is causing numerous controversies, opposition, and resistance. To find the right solution, and contribute to sustainable energy and economic development, it is necessary to develop a fully transparent and objective policy system in this field, and to use contemporary models for decision making with emphasis on the involvement local communities in the decision-making process.
Ključne besede: sustainable energy transition, small hydropower plants, environmental awareness, modelling, decision making process, Western Balkans
Objavljeno v DKUM: 28.06.2024; Ogledov: 420; Prenosov: 5
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,27 MB)
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