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21.
RISK MANAGEMENT SUPPORT SYSTEMS
Valeriia Grigoreva, 2017, magistrsko delo

Opis: The topic of this Master’s Thesis is risk management support systems for banking industry. The research was focused on Russian Federation banking system. Risk management is an important part of bank management. The banking sector is one of the most sensitive ones for currency fluctuation, economical as well as political instability. And it is necessary to be able to forecast future risks and prepare the banks to meet them, as well as to create the most suitable way to treat these risks. Risk management in banks has changed substantially over the past ten years. In conditions of uncertainty and rapidly changing world banks have to introduce innovative approaches and mechanisms to risk management. Now banks use IT tools and automated systems for managing the risk. The case study was chosen for empirical part of research. As an example, the largest bank of Russian Federation banking industry – PJSC “Sberbank” was taken. The empirical analysis was conducted with two research hypotheses. The purpose of H1 was to define the stage of use of automated risk management systems in Russia. It was accepted; the Russian banking sector is on early stage of use IT tools. However, the Russian software market is developing rapidly and can be called catching up. The purpose of H2 was to analyze the risk management support systems in the selected bank. The hypothesis was confirmed; the most important functionality of automated risk management system in Sberbank is credit risk management. Credit risk gives the bank "work". Credit operations of commercial banks are one of the most important types of banking activity. In the financial market, lending retains the position of the most lucrative asset line of credit institutions, although the most risky. The loan portfolio of banks averages 50‒70% of assets. Consequently, the credit risk in the structure of banking risk has a decisive influence on the performance of banks. The effectiveness of credit risk management is very important in the management of banking risk.
Ključne besede: bank, risk, risk management, support system, IT-tools, automated systems, Russia.
Objavljeno: 10.07.2017; Ogledov: 390; Prenosov: 39
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,03 MB)

22.
Intelligent support for defining aesthetical, ergonomical and material properties of designed product
Jasmin Kaljun, 2014, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The presented paper gives an insight into a prototype of intelligent advisory system based on the aesthetic and ergonomic factors regarding product design, with emphasis on appurtenant design recommendations. The paper focuses on methodology of determining appropriate combination of ergonomic and aesthetic design actions during product design to achieve pleasant user experience. Along with products' function, ergonomics and aesthetics certainly belong to the most important design factors that affect user experience. In the field of ergonomics not only anthropometrical characteristics of prospective user are important. It is also of significant importance to select appropriate material for contact areas in order to assure comfortable and injury free use. Presented theoretical findings are supported with case study of hand tool handle design using intelligent advisory system Oscar.
Ključne besede: aesthetics, ergonomics, intelligent support, material selection, product design
Objavljeno: 12.07.2017; Ogledov: 236; Prenosov: 84
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,17 MB)
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23.
Application of analytical hierarchy process in agriculture
Karmen Pažek, Črtomir Rozman, 2005, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Hierarchical decision models are a general decision support methodology aimed at the classification or evaluation of options that accur in desion-making processes. Decision models are typically developed through the decomposition of complex decision problems into smaller and less comple subproblems. This paper presents an approach to the development and implementation of multicriteria decision model based on Analytical Hierarchy Process - AHP (Expert Choice, EC). Likewise, the AHP is used as a potential multicriteria decision making method for application in agriculture. In order to show the implementation of explained MCDA methods in real situation in agriculture, theapplication of AHP on a sample model farm is presented in the second part of the article.
Ključne besede: multicriteria decision analysis, MCDA, analytical hierarchy process, AHP, decision support system, DSS, agriculture
Objavljeno: 20.07.2017; Ogledov: 340; Prenosov: 116
.pdf Celotno besedilo (177,82 KB)
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24.
Decision making under conditions of uncertainty in agriculture
Karmen Pažek, Črtomir Rozman, 2009, pregledni znanstveni članek

Opis: In decision under uncertainty individual decision makers (farmers) have to choose one of a set number of alternatives with complete information about their outcomes but in the absence of any information or data about the probabilities of the various state of nature. This paper examines a decision making under uncertainty in agriculture. The classical approaches of Wald’s, Hurwicz’s, Maximax, Savage’s and Laplace’s are discussed and compared in case study of oil pumpkin production and selling of pumpkin oil. The computational complexity and usefulness of the criterion are further presented. The article is concluded with aggregate the results of all observed criteria and business alternatives in the conditions of uncertainty, where the business alternative 1 is suggested.
Ključne besede: uncertainty, Wald’s, Hurwicz’s, Maximax, Savage’s and Laplace’s criterion, decision support system, agriculture, oil crops
Objavljeno: 20.07.2017; Ogledov: 243; Prenosov: 44
.pdf Celotno besedilo (174,59 KB)
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25.
Organizational learning supported by machine learning models coupled with general explanation methods
Marko Bohanec, Marko Robnik Šikonja, Mirjana Kljajić Borštnar, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background and Purpose: The process of business to business (B2B) sales forecasting is a complex decision-making process. There are many approaches to support this process, but mainly it is still based on the subjective judgment of a decision-maker. The problem of B2B sales forecasting can be modeled as a classification problem. However, top performing machine learning (ML) models are black boxes and do not support transparent reasoning. The purpose of this research is to develop an organizational model using ML model coupled with general explanation methods. The goal is to support the decision-maker in the process of B2B sales forecasting. Design/Methodology/Approach: Participatory approach of action design research was used to promote acceptance of the model among users. ML model was built following CRISP-DM methodology and utilizes R software environment. Results: ML model was developed in several design cycles involving users. It was evaluated in the company for several months. Results suggest that based on the explanations of the ML model predictions the users’ forecasts improved. Furthermore, when the users embrace the proposed ML model and its explanations, they change their initial beliefs, make more accurate B2B sales predictions and detect other features of the process, not included in the ML model. Conclusions: The proposed model promotes understanding, foster debate and validation of existing beliefs, and thus contributes to single and double-loop learning. Active participation of the users in the process of development, validation, and implementation has shown to be beneficial in creating trust and promotes acceptance in practice.
Ključne besede: decision support, organizational learning, machine learning, explanations
Objavljeno: 01.09.2017; Ogledov: 489; Prenosov: 65
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,31 MB)
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26.
A statistical model for shutdowns due to air quality control for a copper production decision support system
Khalid Aboura, 2015, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background: In the mid-1990s, a decision support system for copper production was developed for one of the largest mining companies in Australia. The research was conducted by scientists from the largest Australian research center and involved the use of simulation to analyze options to increase production of a copper production facility. Objectives: We describe a statistical model for shutdowns due to air quality control and some of the data analysis conducted during the simulation project. We point to the fact that the simulation was a sophisticated exercise that consisted of many modules and the statistical model for shutdowns was essential for valid simulation runs. Method: The statistical model made use of a full year of data on daily downtimes and used a combination of techniques to generate replications of the data. Results: The study was conducted with a high level of cooperation between the scientists and the mining company. This contributed to the development of accurate estimates for input into a support system with an EXCEL based interface. Conclusion: The environmental conditions affected greatly the operations of the production facility. A good statistical model was essential for the successful simulation and the high budget expansion decision that ensued.
Ključne besede: decision support system, simulation, statistical modelling
Objavljeno: 28.11.2017; Ogledov: 163; Prenosov: 133
.pdf Celotno besedilo (339,98 KB)
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27.
Financial distress prediction of Iranian companies using data minig techniques
Mahdi Moradi, Mahdi Salehi, Mohammad Ebrahim Ghorgani, Hadi Sadoghi Yazdi, 2013, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Decision-making problems in the area of financial status evaluation are considered very important. Making incorrect decisions in firms is very likely to cause financial crises and distress. Predicting financial distress of factories and manufacturing companies is the desire of managers and investors, auditors, financial analysts, governmental officials, employees. Therefore, the current study aims to predict financial distress of Iranian Companies. The current study applies support vector data description (SVDD) to the financial distress prediction problem in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. To serve this purpose, we use a grid-search technique using 3-fold cross-validation to find out the optimal parameter values of kernel function of SVDD. To evaluate the prediction accuracy of SVDD, we compare its performance with fuzzy c-means (FCM).The experiment results show that SVDD outperforms the other method in years before financial distress occurrence. The data used in this research were obtained from Iran Stock Market and Accounting Research Database. According to the data between 2000 and 2009, 70 pairs of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange are selected as initial data set.
Ključne besede: financial distress prediction, Support vector data description, Fuzzy c-mean
Objavljeno: 30.11.2017; Ogledov: 149; Prenosov: 35
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,10 MB)
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28.
Quality evaluation information support in higher education
Tatjana Kovač, 2015, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background and Purpose: The objective of this research was to develop a proposal of the evaluation information support in higher education that encompasses the Quality Assessor’s and Quality Analyst’s work support. Furthermore, the proposal also includes the fields evaluated in the processes of external evaluation of the higher education institutes by the Slovenian National Agency for Quality Assurance in Higher Education (hereinafter referred to as »NAKVIS«). Methodology: The method called the “Multi-Attribute Utility Theory” (hereinafter referred to as “MAUT”) and MS Excel were used for the work support of the Quality Assessors, while the expert modelling in the Decision Expert programme (hereinafter referred to as “Dexi programme”) was used for the work support of the Quality Analysts. Results: The identified criteria allow a uniform evaluation, regardless of the Assessor. The MS Excel template with automatic calculation was made as the technical support for an evaluator and the expert model in Dexi programme was designed for a Quality Analyst. Conclusion: The model of the Higher Education Institute quality evaluation, as presented in this article, can provide a comprehensive and transparent consideration of quality at the Faculty, and, in particular, facilitate the evaluation process due to its information and technical support.
Ključne besede: quality in higher education, quality evaluation, quality evaluation information support, expert modelling
Objavljeno: 22.01.2018; Ogledov: 176; Prenosov: 105
.pdf Celotno besedilo (711,02 KB)
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29.
Public support of solar electricity and its impact on households - prosumers
Jarmila Zimmermannová, Adam Pawliczek, Petr Čermák, 2018, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background and Purpose: Currently, the idea of households - prosumers is broadly discussed in public governments, mainly in connection with both the energy security issues and the environmental issues. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to present new agent model of household - prosumer and to compare two scenarios – “off grid household” and “on grid household”. The additional goal is to evaluate the impact of public support of solar electricity on the economic efficiency of household – prosumer projects (systems). Design/Methodology/Approach: The model is structured as a micro-level agent model, representing one household – prosumer. The model has the following general characteristics: one household with own electricity generation (photovoltaic panels), battery and in case of “on grid household” also connection to the grid. The main goal of the agent is to cover electricity consumption in household with minimal costs. The agent model of prosumer is tested and validated, using the empirical data. Results: The highest level of subsidy has significant impact on the economic indicators of selected scenarios. It causes lower investment costs at the beginning of the project and consequently shorter payback period (3-4 years earlier), positive cumulative cash flow, net present value and IRR in earlier period (approximately 5-10 years earlier, depending on the scenario). Conclusion: We can recommend to the government to continue with current system of subsidies, since it contributes to better economic indicators of particular solar electricity projects. On the other hand, the level of subsidy should be at least the same as in current year 2017, for the purposes of representing the significant part of the investment costs. Low level of subsidy has negligible impact on the economic indicators of households – prosumers projects. The developed agent model is suitable for the evaluation of economic impact of public support on households – prosumers.
Ključne besede: renewable electricity, photovoltaics, prosumers, households, public support, agent model, energy model
Objavljeno: 07.05.2018; Ogledov: 356; Prenosov: 129
.pdf Celotno besedilo (2,04 MB)
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30.
Back analysis of time-dependet displacement at the Trojane tunnel construction
Jakob Likar, 2004, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The 2,900-metre double tube tunnel of Trojane forms part of the highway section between Celje and Ljubljana and part of the highway road system connecting Lendava and Koper with adjacent roads. The construction of this section, which is of special importance for the Republic Slovenia, has been going on for almost ten years. The highway near Trojane where the tunnel is located, lies on a hilly terrain composed of Permian-carboniferous rocks, which are tectonically badly damaged in some places and marked with broad fault zones, containing tectonically remoulded soil of low strength in terms of deformability properties. Even though the amount of waters coming from the hills during the excavation of the tunnel was relatively small, this water, in combination with extremely damaged weak rock caused the increase of deformations at the construction site. Geological and geotechnical surveying with geometric monitoring and the analyses of stress and deformation changes in the surrounding rocks and support elements were critical in assessing the actual weak-rock conditions during the course of construction. Since the analyses of deformation processes, which had been modelled with PLAXIS 3D TUNNEL PROGRAM, showed great impact on permanent stability of the tunnel, special care was paid to rheological changes in the surrounding rocks and combined in-built support elements. 3D back analyses with SOFT-SOIL-CREEP (SSC) constitutive model, which takes into account rheological phenomena, were carried out. The calculations of primary and secondary stresses and deformations were made for two characteristic areas and determined on the basis of realistic geological mapping during tunnel construction. The first area represented typical rocks of the Trojane tunnel, i.e. shales and siltstone, while the second one was a tectonic zone where geological and geotechnical conditions during excavation were less favourable. The results of back analyses used provided an acceptable possibility for estimating the stress-strain variation during construction as well as an appropriate basis for analysing vertical displacements at the tunnel roof. The calculation results show good correlation with field measurements.
Ključne besede: tunnels, construction, permain-carboniferous rocks, geological-geotechnical conditions, tunnel support, Trojane tunnel, finite element method, costitutive models, back analyses, field mesurement, time dependent analysis
Objavljeno: 15.05.2018; Ogledov: 293; Prenosov: 18
.pdf Celotno besedilo (868,88 KB)
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