Is technology sector in a bubble?Tadej Kelc
, 2017, diplomsko delo
Opis: The thesis is dealing with the question if the U.S. technology sector is in the bubble. Besides the main aim of this thesis, we are also interested in what the changes are in recent stock market bubbles. The analysis of the sector is key to the investors, because with the early identification of a bubble, they can allocate their funds to other less risky investments. On the other hand, the investors can with the analysis of the sector find out if specific sector is undervalued and thus make above average revenue.
Our analysis is based on the study of relative indicators, such as: P/E, P/B, CAPE, P/B, P/S and MarketCap/GDP. We studied the last two historic bubbles and analyzed the current state on the U.S. stock markets. The analysis is focused on the last part of the thesis, where we evaluated what is the current market sentiment in the U.S. stock market, especially in the technology sector. The results are compared to the technology bubble of 2000. In the analysis, we are using U.S. stock market indices as well as the global ones.
U.S. stock market is overvalued, which can be argued with high values of the relative indicators compared to the historical average. Some of them show, that market was valued higher only during the Great Depression in 1929 and during the technological bubble in 2000. Remarkably high values are the result of low interest rates and quantitative easing of central banks. The current expansive monetary politics is encouraging risky businesses and increasing credit businesses. The indicator, showing this kind of operations, is the value of investment financed with credit, which is constantly rising in the U.S. since 2009. As a result, stocks and stock indices are increasing as well. With potential abatement of tax rates and other measures of expansive fiscal politics, stock markets could reach even higher values.
Currently, we are in the ninth year of bull trend, which is close to the record of 1991, which lasted for nearly a decade. Since 2009, there is optimism prevailing in U.S. stock market, which is reflecting in above average revenue. The feature of the stock market bubble is that it is developing slowly and persistently, thus the main question arises, when will this optimism turn into fear and pessimism, or better said, when will the stock market bubble burst. Still, no one has the answer to that yet.
Ključne besede: stock market bubble, technology sector, overvalued, stock market, stock market index, dot.com bubble, housing bubble
Objavljeno: 08.12.2017; Ogledov: 480; Prenosov: 51
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