Iskanje po katalogu digitalne knjižnice

Opis: This month’s edition of the IFAI Global Risk Radar offers a comprehensive assessment of global risk signals, derived from news sources worldwide and IFAI’s expanded taxonomy of financial, operational, environmental, market, geopolitical, and systemic risks. The analysis indicates a marked divergence among risk groups, with customer-facing risks, organisational culture, and operational disruptions exhibiting elevated Risk Frequency Indicators, while environment-related and ESG-linked risks remain in a cooling phase. At the individual-risk level, corruption and fraud, change-management failures, and water-supply crises show the strongest upward deviations relative to historical patterns, reffecting a broader global environment characterised by governance concerns, infrastructure fragilities, and climate-related stress. Several high-frequency indicators display co-movements that align with recent geopolitical escalation, heightened market volatility, and tightening financial conditions in multiple regions. These findings align with recent international policy reports that document persistent inffationary pressures (IMF, 2025), governance-related vulnerabilities (OECD, 2025a), and rising political instability in several emerging markets (World Bank, 2025). For companies, the implications are substantial: a combination of structural shocks, rapid shifts in investor sentiment, and intensifying supply-chain fragility requires a more adaptive and data-driven risk management approach.
Ključne besede: risk register, AI detection risk model, high frequencies analysis
Objavljeno v DKUM: 12.12.2025; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 1
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Opis: The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.
Ključne besede: energy and economy transition, decision making, international energy security risk index, multiple regression analysis, multicollinearity test, multicollinearity test with variance inflation factors
Objavljeno v DKUM: 04.02.2025; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 12
Celotno besedilo (447,82 KB)
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Opis: For risk communication, it is important to understand the difference between “hazard” and “risk”. Definitions can be found in Codex Alimentarius and the European Union (EU) General Food Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002. The use of these terms as synonyms or their interchange is a recurrent issue in the area of food safety, despite awareness-raising messages sent by EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) and other interested entities. A quick screening of the EU’s food regulations revealed several inconsistencies. Hence, it was considered necessary to further investigate if regulations could act as a source for this problem. A software tool was developed to support the detection and listing of inconsistent translations of “hazard” and “risk” in certain EU food regulations. Subsequently, native-speaking experts working in food safety from each EU country were asked to provide their individual scientific opinion on the prepared list. All data were statistically analysed after applying numerical scores (1–5) describing different levels of consistency. Results showed that the most common problem was the interchange of “hazard” with “risk” and vice versa. This lack of consistency can create confusion that can further translate into misjudgments at food risk assessment and communication levels.
Ključne besede: risk analysis, risk communication, hazard, risk, food regulation, food safety
Objavljeno v DKUM: 12.03.2024; Ogledov: 460; Prenosov: 351
Celotno besedilo (4,26 MB)
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Opis: The subsequent bachelor’s thesis comprises an investment report with equity valuation of Krka, d.d. company, the largest Slovenian company and one of the leading generic pharmaceutical companies in region. Overall, the financial sector is coping with low interest rates and more and more investors are willing to enter the capital markets directly. The Slovenian equity markets was struggling to pick up the pace after the last major financial crisis, which was almost 10 years ago. The bull trend in other major and biggest markets in the world is on to set new records day by day. We try to find out if the company under scrutiny is attractive for investors and what upside potential it has in the future. The analysis is presented trough most appropriate, popular and renowned techniques that surround equity research and is followed by the creation of final recommendation. Those are Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Economic Value Added (EVA), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Relative Multiples Valuation (RMV). Additionally, the approaches like Porter’s five forces analysis, SWOT analysis, Sensitivity analysis, Altman Z-score, Piotroski F-score, Beneish M-score, and Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC) were made. Since equity markets provide a bigger risk for investors, we try to investigate how risky is a particular company and sector. The investment risks and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) will help us do that. Risks and the future business surrounding also include macroeconomic analysis, which is also performed and helps us understand the topic under discussion better.. The key part of the thesis presents the building of financial valuation model with many variables and weighting it accordingly. The final fair value price is set and commented. In the conclusion, we summarise all our findings. Furthermore, some relevant facts are exposed and projected into the forecasted period. At the end we can conclude that the Value-based Management (VBM) gives clear result and projects a path for future development. The company that was used for the research is a perfect example how VBM methods used for valuation can provide us with broader picture and inform investors about the company. On the other hand, the methods can also provide a large source of information that can be useful to the company’s management.
Ključne besede: Macroeconomic analysis, valuation methods, Monte Carlo simulation, intrinsic value, risk profile
Objavljeno v DKUM: 30.11.2017; Ogledov: 3049; Prenosov: 316
Celotno besedilo (5,11 MB)

Opis: The increasing availability of electronic health care records has provided remarkable progress in the field of population health. In particular the identification of disease risk factors has flourished under the surge of available data. Researchers can now access patient data across a broad range of demographics and geographic locations. Utilizing this Big healthcare data researchers have been able to empirically identify specific high-risk conditions found within differing populations. However to date the majority of studies approached the issue from the top down, focusing on the prevalence of specific diseases within a population. Through our work we demonstrate the power of addressing this issue bottom-up by identifying specifically which diseases are higher-risk for a specific population. In this work we demonstrate that network-based analysis can present a foundation to identify pairs of diagnoses that differentiate across population segments. We provide a case study highlighting differences between high and low income individuals in the United States. This work is particularly valuable when addressing population health management within resource-constrained environments such as community health programs where it can be used to provide insight and resource planning into targeted care for the population served.
Ključne besede: population screening, risk factors, network analysis
Objavljeno v DKUM: 23.06.2017; Ogledov: 1537; Prenosov: 407
Celotno besedilo (743,53 KB)
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