Iskanje po katalogu digitalne knjižnice

Opis: Forecasting is important in many branches of logistics, including the logistics related to Tourism supply chains. With an increasing inflow of American tourists, planning and forecasting the US tourists' inflow to Slovenia have gained far more importance attention amongst scholars and practitioners. This study, therefore, was conducted to forecast the American tourists' inflow to Slovenia using one of the predictive models based on the exponential smoothing approach, namely Holt-Winters damped additive (HWDA) exponential smoothing method. The model was modified by several improvements, while the obtained results were generalized to other supply chain components. The results show that the forecasting system can predict well the observed inflow, while the methodology used to derive the model might have enriched the plethora of existing practical forecasting approaches in the tourism domain. Benchmarking demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms a competitive ARIMA model and official forecasts. The practical implications are also discussed in this paper.
Ključne besede: tourism, forecasting, Holt-Winters model, US tourists, supply chains, logistics
Objavljeno v DKUM: 22.08.2024; Ogledov: 42; Prenosov: 8
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Opis: Competitiveness of rail transport compared to road transport has been reducing, especially on regional railway lines. To improve this situation, the EU adopted various directives and regulations to increase efficiency of railway undertakings. In this paper we present an organizational and economic model based on European policies for local railway system. The organizational model is based on multi-criteria decision analysis. For the economic model we used an econometric approach to estimate the cost function and marginal costs in regional lines, which constitute the basis for railway charges. By implementing such an organizational model, the functioning of the railway network will improve. The research found that a change in the existing model of calculating costs of infrastructure use would bring economic effects for the railway infrastructure manager and the providers of transport. Using the proposed model we also found that it is reasonable to increase the flow of goods on unused regional railway lines because the railway infrastructure maintenance costs are inelastic with regard to transported gross tons.
Ključne besede: econometrics, charging model, maintenance cost, marginal costs, railway infrastructure, railway traffic, logistics, Slovenia
Objavljeno v DKUM: 09.08.2017; Ogledov: 1623; Prenosov: 443
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Opis: The paper addresses an analysis of potential synergies in collaboration between an observed Port in the Mediterranean Sea and Central-European logistic railway-services based company. Both companies have established a strategic partnership. The main motive was cooperation in rail transport, with a particular emphasis on potential synergies that would a rail traffic have brought to a port's business. For the purpose of synergies valuation under uncertain conditions, a Monte Carlo simulation-based framework with integrated discounted cash flow (DCF) model is applied. The possible values of future synergies are calculated via the DCF model by simultaneously changing values of different uncertain financial parameters at each repetition of a Monte Carlo scenario-playing mechanism. In this process, predicted forecasts of future synergetic throughputs are also used for various types of observed cargo. As it turned out, the generated synergies' values follow the approximate normal distribution. Based on statistical inference and analysis of probability intervals it was discovered that there might indeed exist certain important synergies in the collaboration between both companies. This fact has convinced us into a belief in the correctness of companies' decision to enter into such kind of strategic cooperation.
Ključne besede: port economics, financial management, valuation, discounted cash-flow model, Monte Carlo simulation, logistics
Objavljeno v DKUM: 06.07.2017; Ogledov: 1915; Prenosov: 279
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Opis: The paper describes a segmentation of risks to make each risk segment more manageable. The proposed approach is primarily intended to improve the confidentiality of risk simulations. The description of the approach is based on a logistics business process system which requires that its input is represented as a process graph. Each process is defined in terms of input and output; input comprises general input as well as risks; output comprises general output as well as impacts. The model takes into consideration internalas well as external input and output. Parameters can be used to define individual processes. Processes include functions that calculate new values of parameters and output on the bases of given input. Based on given tolerance levels for risks, impacts and process parameters, the model determines whether these levels are acceptable. The model assumes that parameters and functions are non-deterministic, i.e. parameters and functions may change in time. Although the approach is described on a very general level, each segment can be further subdivided into subsegments in order to include more characteristics of observed risks.
Ključne besede: risk, impact, segmentation, risk management, process parameters, logistics, model, simulation tools, non-deterministic
Objavljeno v DKUM: 05.06.2012; Ogledov: 2069; Prenosov: 53
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