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1.
New suptech tool of the predictive generation for insurance companies : the case of the European market
Timotej Jagrič, Daniel Zdolšek, Robert Horvat, Iztok Kolar, Niko Erker, Jernej Merhar, Vita Jagrič, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Financial innovation, green investments, or climate change are changing insurers’ business ecosystems, impacting their business behaviour and financial vulnerability. Supervisors and other stakeholders are interested in identifying the path toward deterioration in the insurance company’s financial health as early as possible. Suptech tools enable them to discover more and to intervene in a timely manner. We propose an artificial intelligence approach using Kohonen’s self-organizing maps. The dataset used for development and testing included yearly financial statements with 4058 observations for European composite insurance companies from 2012 to 2021. In a novel manner, the model investigates the behaviour of insurers, looking for similarities. The model forms a map. For the obtained groupings of companies from different geographical origins, a common characteristic was discovered regarding their future financial deterioration. A threshold defined using the solvency capital requirement (SCR) ratio being below 130% for the next year is applied to the map. On the test sample, the model correctly identified on average 86% of problematic companies and 79% of unproblematic companies. Changing the SCR ratio level enables differentiation into multiple map sections. The model does not rely on traditional methods, or the use of the SCR ratio as a dependent variable but looks for similarities in the actual insurer’s financial behaviour. The proposed approach offers grounds for a Suptech tool of predictive generation to support early detection of the possible future financial distress of an insurance company.
Ključne besede: European insurance market, suptech, supervision, financial deterioration identification, neural networks
Objavljeno v DKUM: 25.03.2024; Ogledov: 115; Prenosov: 10
.pdf Celotno besedilo (2,55 MB)
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2.
Can social media content increase financial market returns? : survey results from Poland
Andrzej Cwynar, Wiktor Cwynar, Robert Pater, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background and Purpose: In recent years classic financial market theory based on decision makers’ rationality has been challenged by repeated anomalies that became a ‘new normal’. As a result, what we witness today is a considerable turn to behavioral concepts that can shed a new light on choices made by market participants. The astonishing development of social media accelerated scientific validation of such concepts, since the media opened new and capacious ‘laboratory space’ for testing behavioral hypotheses. The main purpose of the article is to examine whether financial market professionals believe that social media content can be useful in achieving additional financial market returns and to investigate the factors behind this belief. Design/Methodology/Approach: We surveyed a sample of over 400 financial market professionals at institutions operating in Poland, and analyzed the results using logit regression models. Results: We established that almost 60% of the surveyed finance professionals recognized the potential of social media for achieving additional returns. We also found out that the differences in respondents’ perception of this potential could be explained mainly by heterogeneity of their job experience and, to a lesser degree, by their job position. Interestingly, more experienced individuals were less likely to recognize this potential. Firm-specific factors did not have a significant effect on the dependent variable. Conclusion: The opinions of financial market professionals regarding the link between social media and additional returns are mixed, which is consistent with the current body of evidence brought by sentiment-based research. Our findings confirm the key role of previous experience in explaining attitudes towards novelties and innovations (such as social media), a phenomenon known from other fields and everyday experience.
Ključne besede: social media, sentiment, behavioral finance, financial market professionals, financial market returns
Objavljeno v DKUM: 04.05.2018; Ogledov: 1264; Prenosov: 168
.pdf Celotno besedilo (711,18 KB)
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