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1.
PROS AND CONS OF THE CURRENCY BOARD-CASE OF BULGARIA
Zornitsa Daskalova Krasimirova, 2010, delo diplomskega seminarja/zaključno seminarsko delo/naloga

Opis: The investigated topic is such that retains its importance throughout time as it tends to be a good lesson on the misconduct of monetary policy of one country during turbulent and drastic economic and political changes, and the following actions meant to bridle back the economy to its stable performance. The focus of this thesis is of Bulgaria and the way it coped with the galloping hyperinflation in the late nineties of the previous century. My main motivation and reason behind writing this thesis is first the fact that I am Bulgarian, who has the language know-how and the access to vaster sources describing and delving into the investigated topic. Furthermore, I am familiar with the culture that stands behind and affects in many aspects the decisions that happened to be decisive for those tumultuous times, thus I can give a better insight on the topic to the people observing from abroad. Therefore, I have attempted to give an objective and straightforward analysis and explanation behind the history, structure, past and present challenges of the Bulgarian currency board, and its advantages and disadvantages that it has had in the country. I hope the information is clear and useful enough to create awareness in the other EU countries of the main arguments and disputes surrounding this pegged system and in general help toward forming a basis for a proper decision making. There were some limitations in the course of work; i.e denied access to some of the materials and articles as they are available only when accessed from Bulgaria. Despite the difficulties, I managed to get a broad scope of sources- domestic and international ones, to come up with the final coherent piece of work that I have the honour to present to you. Further down, in the Introduction part, I have elaborated deeper on the way how I have prepared and structured the investigated topic of my bachelor thesis.
Ključne besede: currency board, “orthodox” currency board, pegged currency, anchor currency, monetary policy, Bulgarian monetary policy, economic crisis, financial crisis, inflation, depreciation, current account deficit, ERM 2, Bulgarian politics, Bulgaria, EU, IMF, Bulgarian National Bank, Eurozone
Objavljeno: 05.05.2011; Ogledov: 2099; Prenosov: 72
.pdf Celotno besedilo (620,89 KB)

2.
THE ROLE OF THE RATING AGENCIES IN THE CURRENT FINANCIAL CRISIS
Petar Filipov, 2012, diplomsko delo

Opis: The Subprime crisis that occurred in 2007-2008, was the most disturbing and severe crisis since The Great Depression. The global stock market indexes and housing prices noted a sharp drop. Big corporations, conglomerates, defaulted, were acquired and bailed out, since they could not meet their financing obligations. Substantial number of people lost their jobs worldwide and a lot of sectors in the economy were struggling. Within this Bachelor seminar paper, it is presented how the credit rating agencies influenced the credit crunch. The main issue discussed in this seminar work is the role of the rating agencies in one of the greatest crushes in history. They (the agencies), actually, participated in creating the structured financial products, which during the housing bubble were increasingly trading. These structured financial products were very complex and highly risky and maybe, the most crucial cause of the crisis. First, in the seminar paper it is described how the agencies work and their origins. As in the last century, Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s, emerged to great power in the financial system with assigning ratings to issuers of debt. This position in the financial world that the agencies held, has brought many academicians to doubting the possible moral hazard problems within the credit ratings business. Furthermore, it is explained how the financial turmoil emerged and the trends that preceded the credit crunch. Questions regarding the role of the agencies in the securitization process are discussed. For instance, were the rating agencies biased; were the ratings on the structured financial products inflated and if so, what were the incentives for it? Several theories and empirical evidence has been put forward concerning the importance of the ratings in the securitization process. It is concluded in this paper, that the ratings assigned to the financial derivatives were inflated and the agencies noted increased returns from it, which presents the incentives of the agencies during the housing bubble. These empirical findings also indicate of moral hazard problem within the ratings system.
Ključne besede: Credit rating agencies, Financial crisis, Structured financial products, Securitization, Inflated ratings, Moral hazard
Objavljeno: 29.11.2012; Ogledov: 972; Prenosov: 66
.pdf Celotno besedilo (749,27 KB)

3.
Nonlinear spillovers between euro area sovereign bond markets
Silvo Dajčman, 2015, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: This paper examines nonlinear spillover effects between sovereign bond markets of six euro area countries (France, Ireland, Italy, Germany, Portugal, and Spain), four of which were among the hardest hit by the sovereign debt crisis, by applying a nonlinear Granger causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006). The test is applied on the sovereign bond yield dynamics (i.e. yield changes) time series for the time period from 3 January 2000 - 31 August 2011. We also test for ˝pure˝ spillovers between sovereign bond yield dynamics, i.e. the spillovers after controlling for common and regional factors that impact the sovereign bond yield changes of all countries simultaneously. To verify if the nature of spillovers has changed after the start of the euro are sovereign debt crisis, we test for the nonlinear spillovers for the whole observed period and separately for the period be fore and after the start of the euro area sovereign debt crisis (period from the start of April 2010 until the end of our sample, i.e. 31 August 2011). The results of our study show that strong bi-directional Granger causality exists between the investigated sovereign bond markets. Very similar results are obtained whether the regional and world factors are or are not controlled for. We find strong bi-directional non-linear Granger causality for the investigated euro area countries prior the euro area sovereign debt crisis. After the start of the euro area sovereign debt crisis the interdependence be- tween the markets has reduced. We can no longer detect non-linear spillovers running from Germany and France to the ˝periphery˝ euro area countries. The findings of this study have important implications for the policymakers as they show that shocks spill-over quickly across the sovereign bond markets and the intensity and nature of spillovers can change throughout time. The sovereign bond markets of the ˝core˝ euro area decoupled from the ˝periphery˝ euro area sovereign bond markets after the start of euro are debt crisis. The findings are also of relevance for individual investors in the sovereign bond markets for the purpose of portfolio diversification.
Ključne besede: stock exchanges, bonds, financial crisis, econometric models, EU, sovereign bond markets, spillovers, non-linear Granger causality
Objavljeno: 07.08.2017; Ogledov: 276; Prenosov: 126
.pdf Celotno besedilo (409,64 KB)
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4.
Spread and liquidity issues
Sebastjan Strašek, Bor Bricelj, 2016, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The financial crises are closely connected with spread changes and liquidity issues. After defining and addressing spread considerations, we research in this paper the topic of liquidity issues in times of economic crisis. We analyse the liquidity effects as recorded on spreads of securities from different markets. We stipulate that higher international risk aversion in times of financial crises coincides with widening security spreads. The paper then introduces liquidity as a risk factor into the standard value-at-risk framework, using GARCH methodology. The comparison of results of these models suggests that the size of the tested markets does not have a strong effect on the models. Thus, we find that spread analysis is an appropriate tool for analysing liquidity issues during a financial crisis.
Ključne besede: liquidity, financial crisis, GARCH VaR models
Objavljeno: 03.04.2017; Ogledov: 262; Prenosov: 33
.pdf Celotno besedilo (582,62 KB)
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5.
Asymmetric correlation of sovereign bond yield dynamics in the Eurozone
Silvo Dajčman, 2013, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: This paper examines the symmetry of correlation of sovereign bond yield dynamics between eight Eurozone countries (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) in the period from January 3, 2000 to August 31, 2011. Asymmetry of correlation is investigated pair-wise by applying the test of Yongmiao Hong, Jun Tu, and Guofu Zhou (2007). Whereas the test of Hong, Tu, and Zhou (2007) is static, the present paper provides also a dynamic version of the test and identifies time periods when the correlation of Eurozone sovereign bond yield dynamics became asymmetric. We identified seven pairs of sovereign bond markets for which the null hypothesis of symmetry in correlation of sovereign bond yield dynamics can be rejected. Calculating rolling-window exceedance correlation, we found that the time-varying upper- (i.e. for positive yield changes) and lower-tail correlations (i.e. for negative yield changes) for pair-wise observed sovereign bond markets normally follow each other closely, yet during some time periods (for most pair-wise observed countries, these periods are around the September 11 attack on the New York City WTC and around the start of the Greek debt crisis) the difference in correlation does increase. The results show that the upper- and lower-tail correlation was symmetric before the Eurozone debt crisis for most of the pair-wise observed sovereign bond markets but has become much less symmetric since then.
Ključne besede: asymmetric correlation, sovereign bonds, Eurozone, financial crisis
Objavljeno: 03.08.2017; Ogledov: 248; Prenosov: 131
.pdf Celotno besedilo (470,77 KB)
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6.
Economic promotion of a small country
Dejan Romih, Urban Šebjan, 2014, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: This paper examines the economic promotion of a small country in the case of Slovenia, which is facing certain economic and social problems. One reason for this is the current financial and economic crisis, which is continuing to affect the country´s economy. Economic promotion is therefore very important for Slovenia and its economic performance in both the short and long run.
Ključne besede: economic diplomacy, economic promotion, financial and economic crisis, foreign investment, foreign trade, migration, tourism, Slovenia
Objavljeno: 08.08.2017; Ogledov: 251; Prenosov: 39
.pdf Celotno besedilo (175,14 KB)
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7.
Economic promotion of a small country
Dejan Romih, 2014, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: This paper examines the economic promotion of a small country in the case of Slovenia. It also examines the economic diplomacy, whose main activity is the promotion of an economy, in the same case. For Slovenia, economic promotion, especially trade and investment promotion, is particularly important. One of the reasons for this is the importance of foreign trade and investment for its economic growth and development.
Ključne besede: economic diplomacy, economic performance, financial and economic crisis, foreign investment, foreign trade, Slovenia
Objavljeno: 09.08.2017; Ogledov: 282; Prenosov: 36
.pdf Celotno besedilo (318,58 KB)
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8.
Visible symptoms of the financial crisis
Matic Žargi, 2017, diplomsko delo

Opis: The Great Recession of 2008 had such a huge impact on the global economy, hence it should be predictable? With a theoretical analysis of Early Warning Systems (EWS) we came to the conclussion that they do in fact work. However, due to complex dimensions of the crisis, there was no particular set of EWS which could actually predict the impact of the crisis. This complexity stems overleveraging and various financial innovations which made the financial markets riskier in unobservable ways. In order to observe the symptoms of a serious crisis we need to look at the economy as a simple machine. Ray Dalios principle about the long and short term debt cycle gave us a different approach. It enables us to spot the symptoms simply by analysisng interest rates, base money creation and federal spending. Rajan (2005) has proved that thesis in his paper, where he showed that the financial instruments became so complex, that they became too risky. Our analysis has brought us to a conclussion that right now interest rates in the US are starting ot rise, the inflation is rising and GDP growth stagnating. With the application of our system we can see that right now we are in the middle of a business cycle. We can predict that a downturn in the capital markets is about to occur. However no system is able to predict the impact of the crisis.
Ključne besede: financial crisis, debt, leveraging, leverage, economic cycles
Objavljeno: 03.11.2017; Ogledov: 303; Prenosov: 28
.pdf Celotno besedilo (722,58 KB)

9.
From subprime and Eurozone crisis with full speed into the next financial crisis
Sebastjan Strašek, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: This paper offers an analysis of the road from subprime and eurozone crisis to the elements of a new systemic crisis. Our aim is to research common issues that accompany each of these crises and to explore elements that hint that the financial systems are moving toward a new crisis. By holding short-term interest rates near zero, the central banks have encouraged malinvestment and speculation. Fuelling the bubble is the fear of missing out on trade. We find that actual events and movements on security markets follow a typical pattern, which indicates a serious threat for the next financial crisis. We also find enough signs that old crises lessons haven’t been learned.
Ključne besede: finance. financial crisis, bubble, P/E ratio
Objavljeno: 13.11.2017; Ogledov: 281; Prenosov: 150
.pdf Celotno besedilo (665,31 KB)
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10.
State aid for the coal sector in the European Union
Piotr Podsiadło, 2015, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: This article presents the evolution of the conditions of state aid admissibility to the coal industry, starting with legal regulations within the European Coal and Steel Community, the European Community, and now the European Union. The thesis was formulated that, in connection with the expiry on 31 December 2010 of Council regulation No. 1407/2002, on the basis of which the European Commission allowed aid for the national mining industry in different member states in the period before the onset of the financial and economic crisis, the immediate cause of introduction of the next regulation for mining state aid in the form of Council Decision 2010/787/EU on state aid to facilitate the closure of uncompetitive coal mines was the increasing intensity of the aid for the mining industry in recent years.
Ključne besede: financial and economic crisis, state aid, coal mining sector, legal regulations, the European Union
Objavljeno: 14.11.2017; Ogledov: 337; Prenosov: 46
.pdf Celotno besedilo (297,71 KB)
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