Iskanje po katalogu digitalne knjižnice

Opis: Pursuing vaccinations against COVID-19 brings hope to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and remains the most rational decision under pandemic conditions. However, it does not come without challenges, including temporary shortages in vaccine doses, significant vaccine inequity, and questions regarding the durability of vaccine-induced immunity that remain unanswered. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 has undergone evolution with the emergence of its novel variants, characterized by enhanced transmissibility and ability to at least partially evade neutralizing antibodies. At the same time, serum antibody levels start to wane within a few months after vaccination, ultimately increasing the risk of breakthrough infections. This article discusses whether the administration of booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines is urgently needed to control the pandemic. We conclude that, at present, optimizing the immunity level of wealthy populations cannot come at the expense of low-income regions that suffer from vaccine unavailability. Although the efficiency of vaccination in protecting from infection may decrease over time, current data show that efficacy against severe disease, hospitalization, and death remains at a high level. If vaccine coverage continues at extremely low levels in various regions, including African countries, SARS-CoV-2 may sooner or later evolve into variants better adapted to evade natural and vaccine-induced immunity, ultimately bringing a global threat that, of course, includes wealthy populations. We offer key recommendations to increase vaccination rates in low-income countries. The pandemic is, by definition, a major epidemiological event and requires looking beyond one's immediate self-interest; otherwise, efforts to contain it will be futile.
Ključne besede: COVID-19, pandemic, disease dynamics, exponential growth, virality, vaccination strategy, immunology, massive vaccinations, vaccine inequity, SARS-CoV-2
Objavljeno v DKUM: 14.10.2024; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 6
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Opis: In the summer of 2021, European governments removed most NPIs after experiencing prolonged second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most countries failed to achieve immunization rates high enough to avoid resurgence of the virus. Public health strategies for autumn and winter 2021 have ranged from countries aiming at low incidence by re-introducing NPIs to accepting high incidence levels. However, such high incidence strategies almost certainly lead to the very consequences that they seek to avoid: restrictions that harm people and economies. At high incidence, the important pandemic containment measure ‘test-trace-isolate-support’ becomes inefficient. At that point, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and its numerous harmful consequences can likely only be controlled through restrictions. We argue that all European countries need to pursue a low incidence strategy in a coordinated manner. Such an endeavour can only be successful if it is built on open communication and trust.
Ključne besede: disease dynamics, exponential growth, virality, strategy
Objavljeno v DKUM: 25.09.2023; Ogledov: 570; Prenosov: 75
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Opis: The World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 a pandemic on March 11th, pointing to the over 118,000 cases in over 110 countries and territories around the world at that time. At the time of writing this manuscript, the number of confirmed cases has been surging rapidly past the half-million mark, emphasizing the sustained risk of further global spread. Governments around the world are imposing various containment measures while the healthcare system is bracing itself for tsunamis of infected individuals that will seek treatment. It is therefore important to know what to expect in terms of the growth of the number of cases, and to understand what is needed to arrest the very worrying trends. To that effect, we here show forecasts obtained with a simple iteration method that needs only the daily values of confirmed cases as input. The method takes into account expected recoveries and deaths, and it determines maximally allowed daily growth rates that lead away from exponential increase toward stable and declining numbers. Forecasts show that daily growth rates should be kept at least below 5% if we wish to see plateaus any time soon - unfortunately far from reality in most countries to date. We provide an executable as well as the source code for a straightforward application of the method on data from other countries.
Ključne besede: COVID-19, pandemic, disease dynamics, exponential growth, virality
Objavljeno v DKUM: 06.11.2020; Ogledov: 1189; Prenosov: 233
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