| | SLO | ENG | Piškotki in zasebnost

Večja pisava | Manjša pisava

Iskanje po katalogu digitalne knjižnice Pomoč

Iskalni niz: išči po
išči po
išči po
išči po
* po starem in bolonjskem študiju

Opcije:
  Ponastavi


1 - 1 / 1
Na začetekNa prejšnjo stran1Na naslednjo stranNa konec
1.
Container throughput forecasting using dynamic factor analysis and ARIMAX model
Marko Intihar, Tomaž Kramberger, Dejan Dragan, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX) are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020). Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port.
Ključne besede: container throughput forecasting, ARIMAX model, dynamic factor analysis, exogenous macroeconomic indicators, time series analysis
Objavljeno: 12.12.2017; Ogledov: 877; Prenosov: 288
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,33 MB)
Gradivo ima več datotek! Več...

Iskanje izvedeno v 0.03 sek.
Na vrh
Logotipi partnerjev Univerza v Mariboru Univerza v Ljubljani Univerza na Primorskem Univerza v Novi Gorici