1. Communicating sentiment and outlook reverses inaction against collective risksZhen Wang, Marko Jusup, Hao Guo, Lei Shi, Sunčana Geček, Madhur Anand, Matjaž Perc, Chris T. Bauch, Jürgen Kurths, Stefano Boccaletti, Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, 2020, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Collective risks permeate society, triggering social dilemmas in which working toward a common goal is impeded by selfish interests. One such dilemma is mitigating runaway climate change. To study the social aspects of climate-change mitigation, we organized an experimental game and asked volunteer groups of three different sizes to invest toward a common mitigation goal. If investments reached a preset target, volunteers would avoid all consequences and convert their remaining capital into monetary payouts. In the opposite case, however, volunteers would lose all their capital with 50% probability. The dilemma was, therefore, whether to invest one's own capital or wait for others to step in. We find that communicating sentiment and outlook helps to resolve the dilemma by a fundamental shift in investment patterns. Groups in which communication is allowed invest persistently and hardly ever give up, even when their current investment deficits are substantial. The improved investment patterns are robust to group size, although larger groups are harder to coordinate, as evidenced by their overall lower success frequencies. A clustering algorithm reveals three behavioral types and shows that communication reduces the abundance of the free-riding type. Climate-change mitigation, however, is achieved mainly by cooperator and altruist types stepping up and increasing contributions as the failure looms. Meanwhile, contributions from free riders remain flat throughout the game. This reveals that the mechanisms behind avoiding collective risks depend on an interaction between behavioral type, communication, and timing.
Ključne besede: social dilemma, free riding, climate change, negotiation, group size, COVID-19
Objavljeno v DKUM: 07.01.2025; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 4
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2. Tourism climate change adaptation : The case of SloveniaMaja Turnšek, Chris Cooper, Barbara Pavlakovič Farrell, Katja Kokot, Tomi Špindler, Zala Žnidaršič, Tjaša Pogačar, 2024 Opis: This monography is a result of the national research project “V7-2128 Climate change and sustainable tourism development in Slovenia”. It prepares the groundwork for adaptation within the tourism sector in Slovenia, assesses the risks and vulnerabilities of Slovenian tourism to climate change, and identifies possible adaptation options of Slovenian tourism. The analysis uses past climate data and three scenarios of climate change until the end of the 21st century. Two databases were used to get a wider range of available data: the Copernicus Climate Change Service and Slovenian Environment Agency archive data. The analysis focuses on four main areas of Slovenian tourism: (a) water related tourism, (b) urban and cultural tourism and MICE tourism, (c) winter outdoor tourism and (d) summer outdoor tourism. The results confirm past comparative research about Slovenian tourism being less vulnerable to climate change, with the important exception of winter tourism. While some of the climate change impacts are expected to even benefit Slovenian tourism, adaptation processes are still highly recommended both with regards to direct impacts, such as the increase of temperature, and indirect impacts such as the expected increase of tourism impacts on biodiversity due to the prolonged summer season.
Ključne besede: tourism, climate change, adaptation, tourism climate index, Slovenia
Objavljeno v DKUM: 20.12.2024; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 6
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4. Climate change and agriculture management : Western Balkan region analysisFranc Željko Županič, Danka Radić, Iztok Podbregar, 2021, pregledni znanstveni članek Opis: Background: This paper aims to analyze the possibilities of the agricultural sector of the Western Balkan to assess compliance with the European Green Deal, which provides for the implementation of activities, which should enable the transition to sustainable agriculture and climate change mitigation. This paper is among the first to present the causality of agriculture and climate change (status, mitigation, and perspectives) in general and in light of the European Green Deal for the Western Balkan territory.
Main text: Agricultural production is a leading industry in the Western Balkan. Climate change and predictions that temperatures will increase by 4 °C in the coming decades pose a risk not only to agricultural production but also to the safety of the population, because agriculture is the main source of income for a significant part of it. Uncontrolled floods and droughts caused by climate change are a particular danger for agriculture and human existence. This paper demonstrates that agriculture in the WB can be considered critically affected by climate change.
Conclusions:Unless appropriate measures are taken and risk management for water resources and agriculture is improved, there will be a further decrease in precipitation and an increase in dry days by 20%. Such a scenario endangers not only the already vulnerable climate sustainability and biodiversity of the region but also the existence of a population employed in agriculture and the contribution of the agricultural sector to the gross domestic product. However, future planning based on the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) and European Green Deal, the adoption of a related regulatory framework, the establishment and regular monitoring of supporting financing mechanisms, regional cooperation, and improving risk management (with emphasis on the local level) can mitigate the present impact and decrease the expected negative impact of climate change on agriculture and biodiversity in the WB region.
Ključne besede: climate change, sustainable agriculture, risk management, Western Balkan countries, European Green Deal
Objavljeno v DKUM: 08.11.2024; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 7
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5. GIS-based modelling reveals the fate of antlion habitats in the Deliblato SandsDanijel Ivajnšič, Dušan Devetak, 2020, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The Deliblato Sands Special Nature Reserve (DSSNR; Vojvodina, Serbia) is facing a fast successional process. Open sand steppe habitats, considered as regional biodiversity hotspots, have drastically decreased over the last 25 years. This study combines multi-temporal and -spectral remotely sensed data, in-situ sampling techniques and geospatial modelling procedures to estimate and predict the potential development of open habitats and their biota from the perspective of antlions (Neuroptera, Myrmeleontidae). It was confrmed that vegetation density increased in all parts of the study area between 1992 and 2017. Climate change, manifested in the mean annual precipitation amount, signifcantly contributes to the speed of succession that could be completed within a 50-year period. Open grassland habitats could reach an alarming fragmentation rate by 2075 (covering 50 times less area than today), according to selected global climate models and emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). However, M. trigrammus could probably survive in the DSSNR until the frst half of the century, but its subsequent fate is very uncertain. The information provided in this study can serve for efective management of sand steppes, and antlions should be considered important indicators for conservation monitoring and planning.
Ključne besede: antlions, biodiversity, climate change, Serbia
Objavljeno v DKUM: 03.09.2024; Ogledov: 32; Prenosov: 17
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6. A preliminary study of greenhouse gases emissions of Lagos commercial vehicles : the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines at workMichael Adetunji Ahove, Chinenye Lilian Okafor, Samuel G. Odewumi, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Nigeria deployed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) top-down approach which generalizes transport emissions, is not detailed to localize solutions based on sectors. This identified gap was filled using IPCC’s Bottom-Up approach. Quantitative research design was employed using a descriptive survey to determine fuel consumption, vehicle and drivers characteristics through the use of a 30-item instrument named GHG emission estimation instrument (GHGEEI) to estimate the quantity of GHGs from vehicular emissions of commercial road passenger transport activities within the selected routes in Iyanaipaja, differentiate emission estimates by vehicle categories (Tricycle referred to as ‘Keke’, Shuttle, ‘Danfo’14, 18 and 22-seaters) and determine the relative contribution of each commercial road passenger vehicle type according to its age, fuel type, number of engine plugs, and frequency of service. Quota sampling technique was used to identify the strata and their frequency in the population and then convenience sampling was used to select 15% of the quota population for each stratum. Results from the study showed that 10,259.88kg/CO2e, of Carbon dioxide (CO2), 3.65kg/CO2e of Methane (CH4), and 0.58kg/CO2e of Nitrous Oxide (N2O) was emitted daily on the selected areas.
Ključne besede: climate change, greenhouse gases, IPCC guidelines, vehicular emissions
Objavljeno v DKUM: 23.08.2024; Ogledov: 76; Prenosov: 7
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7. The Lyme borreliosis spatial footprint in the 21st century : a key study of SloveniaDaša Donša, Jaša Veno Grujić, Nataša Pipenbaher, Danijel Ivajnšič, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: After mosquitoes, ticks are the most important vectors of infectious diseases. They play an important role in public health. In recent decades, we discovered new tick-borne diseases; additionally, those that are already known are spreading to new areas because of climate change. Slovenia is an endemic region for Lyme borreliosis and one of the countries with the highest incidence of this disease on a global scale. Thus, the spatial pattern of Slovenian Lyme borreliosis prevalence was modelled with 246 indicators and transformed into 24 uncorrelated predictor variables that were applied in geographically weighted regression and regression tree algorithms. The projected potential shifts in Lyme borreliosis foci by 2050 and 2070 were calculated according to the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These results were further applied to developing a Slovenian Lyme borreliosis infection risk map, which could be used as a preventive decision support system.
Ključne besede: CART, climate change, MGWR, Lyme disease, infection risk, spatial modelling
Objavljeno v DKUM: 12.08.2024; Ogledov: 69; Prenosov: 11
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8. Climate change in the Western Balkans and EU green deal : status, mitigation and challengesSandi Knez, Snežana Štrbac, Iztok Podbregar, 2022, pregledni znanstveni članek Opis: Background: The European Commission (EC), based on the European Green Deal (2019) and the Recovery plan for Europe (2021), envisages investing 30% of the budget in climate-related programs, projects, and initiatives, which clearly shows Europe's commitment to becoming the first climate-neutral region by 2050. Activities are also planned for countries that are not members of the European Union (EU), which require complex changes in the field of legislation, strategic planning, implementation, and monitoring. To successfully plan short-term and long-term activities on these grounds, it is necessary to have a realistic picture of the state of climate change in each country—as they spill over into the entire region of Europe. The main objective of this paper is to answer the following questions: (i) is climate change observed in Western Balkans? (ii) how are certain sectors vulnerable to climate change in Western Balkans? (iii) what are the climate change adaptation strategies in the six countries of the Western Balkans? The answers to these questions can help in planning activities and initial alignment of Western Balkan countries with the EU plan to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050.
Main body: The main results of the research show that in all countries of the region, the average annual temperature increased by 1.2 °C compared to 1970, with stabilization and the beginning of the decline which can be expected around 2040. The main reasons for climate change in the region are: industry, energy, and heating sector based on coal exploitation, low energy efficiency, etc.
Conclusions: It can be concluded that Croatia as a member of the EU has adopted, and other five Western Balkans countries are in the process of adopting the necessary regulations and strategies towards climate change mitigation, but the implementation of specific activities is at a low level. The reason for this most often lies in the insufficient commitment of decision-makers to make significant changes in the field of climate change transition (lower level of economic development, lack of investment, and preservation of social peace). Finally, this paper provides an overview of climate change by country, scenario analysis, and policy recommendations.
Ključne besede: climate change, Western Balkans, European union, European green deal
Objavljeno v DKUM: 11.07.2024; Ogledov: 85; Prenosov: 9
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9. Measuring young individuals’ responses to climate change : validation of the Slovenian versions of the climate anxiety scale and the climate change worryNejc Plohl, Izidor Mlakar, Bojan Musil, Urška Smrke, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Introduction: While increasing awareness of climate change is needed to address this threat to the natural environment and humanity, it may simultaneously negatively impact mental health. Previous studies suggest that climate-specific mental health phenomena, such as climate anxiety and worry, tend to be especially pronounced in youth. To properly understand and address these issues, we need valid measures that can also be used in non-Anglophone samples. Therefore, in the present paper, we aimed to validate Slovenian versions of the Climate Anxiety Scale (CAS) and the Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS) among Slovenian youth. Method: We conducted an online survey in which 442 young individuals (18–24 years) from Slovenia filled out the two central questionnaires and additional instruments capturing other relevant constructs (e.g., general anxiety, neuroticism, and behavioral engagement). Results: The confirmatory factor analyses results supported the hypothesized factorial structure of the CAS (two factors) and the CCWS (one factor). Both scales also demonstrated great internal reliability. Moreover, the analyses exploring both constructs’ nomological networks showed moderate positive associations with similar measures, such as anxiety and stress (convergent validity), and very weak associations with measures they should not be particularly related to, such as narcissism (discriminant validity). Lastly, we found that the CAS and, even more so, the CCWS have unique predictive value in explaining outcomes such as perceived threat, support for climate policies, and behavioral engagement (incremental validity). Discussion: Overall, Slovenian versions of the CAS and the CCWS seem to be valid, reliable, and appropriate for future studies tackling young individuals’ responses to climate change. Limitations of the study and areas for future research are discussed.
Ključne besede: climate anxiety, climate change, climate worry, validation, youth
Objavljeno v DKUM: 04.06.2024; Ogledov: 137; Prenosov: 26
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10. Climate change-related displacement and the determination of refugee status under the 1951 Refugee ConventionElijah Sriroshan Sritharan, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Climate change and climate-driven migration are two of the defining challenges of the twenty-first century, and there is no legal framework for protecting those displaced across national borders for climate-related reasons. The 1951 Refugee Convention hardly applies to human mobility in the context of climate change. This paper was written in the hopes of initiating a discussion concerning an alternative perspective through which persons fleeing natural disasters linked to climate change may satisfy the eligibility conditions for recognition of refugee status. Expanding the definition of refugee as defined in the Convention by including the notion of vulnerability to climate disasters that are caused by the underlying socio-economic conditions in the claimant’s home country and the role of discrimination in causing differential exposure to the climate-related disasters in legal definitions might open the door for the availability of refugee status for persons fleeing in the context of climate change. This paper proposes the adoption of a reformed human rights-based interpretation, particularly with regard to the individual nature of refugee status determination. Recalibrating the Convention to facilitate climate-induced migration could reduce political tension and social unrest in receiving countries.
Ključne besede: climate change, climate-driven migration or displacement, climate migrants, climate refugees, determination of refugee status, the 1951 refugee convention, human rights-based approach, socio-economic conditions, vulnerability to climate disasters, the role of discrimination, rights-based climate litigation
Objavljeno v DKUM: 19.04.2024; Ogledov: 168; Prenosov: 20
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