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1.
Investigation of the bullwhip effect using spreadsheet simulation
Borut Buchmeister, 2008, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Superior supply chains are one of the best ways to compete in today's marketplaces. In Supply Chain Management, overall supply chain evaluation needs to include an important logistical effect known as the Bullwhip Effect. It shows how small changes at the demand end of a supply chain are progressively amplified up the supply chain. Production plans are based on demand forecasting and suppliers not only react an changed demand, they adapt the level of safety stock (variation of stocks and orders increases). In this paper two special situations in a four-stage supply chain are studied: i) stable demand with a single 5 % change in demand (with application of four different stock keeping policies), and ii) changing demand with alternating 5 % changes in demand (up and down, with another three stock keeping policies). The results of spreadsheet simulations are shown in tables and charts. Increasing variability of production orders and stock levels up the supply chain is evident. The Bullwhip Effect is measured by the standard deviation of orders. The comparison of the results shows that the Bullwhip Effect can be partially reduced by appropriate stock keeping policy.
Ključne besede: supply chain, changing demand, bullwhip effect, ordering policy
Objavljeno: 31.05.2012; Ogledov: 1229; Prenosov: 29
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2.
Bullwhip effect problem in supply chains
Borut Buchmeister, Jože Pavlinjek, Iztok Palčič, Andrej Polajnar, 2008, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: In Supply Chain Management, a phenomenon called the "Bullwhip Effect" has attracted considerable attention. Overall supply chain evaluation needs to include the Bullwhip Effect. The Bullwhip Effect shows how small changes at the demand end of a supply chain are progressively amplified for operations further back in the chain. It is understood that demand forecast variance contributes to that effect in the chain. With this understanding, the authorsexperimented with two cases: stable demand with a single 5 % change in demand, and changing demand in periodic 10 % increases and later in the same decreases. Two stock keeping policies for all stages in the chain have been studied: to keep in stock i) one, and ü) two periods' demand. Results are shown in tables and charts. Increasing variability of production orders and stocks up the supply chain is evident. The effect indicates a lack of synchronization among supply chain members because of corrupt key information about actual demand. When we understand the nature of supply chain dynamics, there are several actions concerned with coordinating the activities of the operations in the chain, which is discussed in the last part of the paper.
Ključne besede: supply chain, demand fluctuation, bullwhip effect, production rate variability, stock level variability
Objavljeno: 01.06.2012; Ogledov: 1081; Prenosov: 16
URL Povezava na celotno besedilo

3.
Inventory cost consequences of variability demand process within a multi-echelon supply chain
Francisco Campuzano Bolarín, Andrej Lisec, Francisco Cruz Lario Esteban, 2008, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The bullwhip effect (Lee et al, 1997a) is a known supply chain phenomenon where small variations in end item demand create oscillations that amplify throughout the chain. Different price elasticity of demand influence different changes of demand when prices of items are changing on the time horizon. The variance of the orders at the end user placed on suppliers or on manufacturer increases with the orders flow upstream in the logistics chain. This creates harmful consequences in inventory levels and all kind of inventory costs that may affect added value of activities along the logistics chain and finally affect Net Present Value of all activities in the chain. Traditional model of dynamic supply chain structures is used for this particular study, based on the seminal work of Forrester Diagrams (Forrester 1961). Simulation platform for supply chain management at stochastic demand developed by Campuzano (2006) has been used. VENSIM Simulation Software was previously used for developing these supply chain dynamic models. In the development platform generalised supply chain models are constructed graphically and also analytically. Our study here is to get a dipper insight into the processes in a logistics chain, measuring the inventory cost consequences due to variability demand amplification.
Ključne besede: bullwhip effect, demand amplification, logistic chain, system dynamics
Objavljeno: 05.06.2012; Ogledov: 724; Prenosov: 22
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4.
Alternative forecasting techniques that reduce the bullwhip effect in a supply chain
Francisco Campuzano Bolarín, Antonio Guillamón Frutos, Ma Del Carmen Ruiz Abellón, Andrej Lisec, 2013, pregledni znanstveni članek

Opis: The research of the Bullwhip effect has given rise to many papers, aimed at both analysing its causes and correcting it by means of various management strategies because it has been considered as one of the critical problems in a supply chain. This study is dealing with one of its principal causes, demand forecasting. Using different simulated demand patterns, alternative forecasting methods are proposed, that can reduce the Bullwhip effect in a supply chain in comparison to the traditional forecasting techniques (moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and ARMA processes). Our main findings show that kernel regression is a good alternative in order to improve important features in the supply chain, such as the Bullwhip, NSAmp, and FillRate.
Ključne besede: bullwhip effect, supply chain, kernel regression, system dynamics model
Objavljeno: 31.05.2017; Ogledov: 274; Prenosov: 31
.pdf Celotno besedilo (938,51 KB)
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5.
Assessing the impact of prices fluctuation on demand distortion within a multi-echelon supply chain
Francisco Campuzano Bolarín, Antonio Guillamón Frutos, Andrej Lisec, 2011, pregledni znanstveni članek

Opis: Price fluctuation is a practice commonly used by companies to stimulate demand and a main cause of the Bullwhip effect. Assuming a staggered step demand pattern that responds elastically to retailer’s price fluctuation, and by using a supply chain management dynamic model, we will analyse the impact of these fluctuations on the variability of the orders placed along a traditional multilevel supply chain. Subsequently, the results obtained will serve to propose a forecasting model enabling to calculate the potential variability of orders placed by each echelon on the basis of the price pattern used. Finally, under the hypothesis of an environment of collaboration between the different members of the chain, we propose a predictive model that makes it possible to quantify the distortion of the orders generated by each level.
Ključne besede: bullwhip effect, systems dynamics, price fluctuation, supply chain management
Objavljeno: 01.06.2017; Ogledov: 260; Prenosov: 77
.pdf Celotno besedilo (560,46 KB)
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6.
Bullwhip effect in the information flow of a supply chain
Tadeja Lampret, Vojko Potočan, 2014, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: The main goal of our research is to analyze and display causes of a bullwhip effect formation within a supply chain, as well as to provide the appropriate solutions to limit the occurrence of the bullwhip effect by using the proper information flow and partners´ cooperation within the supply chain. The bullwhip effect is one of the most important issues in the supply chain management and it is present in many companies. It preserves a character of invisibility because there are lots of causes for its formation and they are usually difficult to discern. The bullwhip effect is a phenomenon of an increase in the order variability within a supply chain. The higher we are within the supply chain, the higher is the order variability. The company encountered with the whip effect can successfully reduce its impact by improving the information flow, as well as improving partners´ cooperation within the supply chain. In this way the company can limit its negative repercussions and increase the profit. The article focuses on the overview of the bullwhip effect within a distribution chain, from its causes to suggestions and measures how to ease its negative repercussions on the organisation. Part of the causes could be found in the market demand variability and in the lack of communication about the actual marked demand within the supply chain. The rest of the causes are related to obstacles that emerge among different partners within the supply chain (role of culture). A qualitative analysis is applied on the basis of the selected cognitions from the supply chain management. The quantitative analysis is based on the theoretical research of the effective flow of information among the participants and its contribution to the reduction of the bullwhip impact. The article discusses two research questions: 1) The correct information flow within the supply chain and the improvement of the communication among partners can lead to the bullwhip effect reduction, and 2) A reduction of the bullwhip influence can lead to the increase of cooperation among partners. The results of the analysis can be used for further research.
Ključne besede: bullwhip effect, information flow, marked demand variability, orders variability, supply chain, logistics, business logistics, management, acquisition policy
Objavljeno: 06.07.2017; Ogledov: 238; Prenosov: 27
.pdf Celotno besedilo (279,62 KB)
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