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Forecasting US tourists' inflow to Slovenia by modified holt-winters damped model : a case in the tourism industry logistics and supply chains
Dejan Dragan, Abolfazl Keshavarzsaleh, Tomaž Kramberger, Borut Jereb, Maja Rosi, 2019, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Forecasting is important in many branches of logistics, including the logistics related to Tourism supply chains. With an increasing inflow of American tourists, planning and forecasting the US tourists' inflow to Slovenia have gained far more importance attention amongst scholars and practitioners. This study, therefore, was conducted to forecast the American tourists' inflow to Slovenia using one of the predictive models based on the exponential smoothing approach, namely Holt-Winters damped additive (HWDA) exponential smoothing method. The model was modified by several improvements, while the obtained results were generalized to other supply chain components. The results show that the forecasting system can predict well the observed inflow, while the methodology used to derive the model might have enriched the plethora of existing practical forecasting approaches in the tourism domain. Benchmarking demonstrates that the proposed model outperforms a competitive ARIMA model and official forecasts. The practical implications are also discussed in this paper.
Ključne besede: tourism, forecasting, Holt-Winters model, US tourists, supply chains, logistics
Objavljeno v DKUM: 22.08.2024; Ogledov: 42; Prenosov: 8
Celotno besedilo (1,36 MB)
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Factors affecting tourism activity selection among silver hair tourists
Mihaela Kežman, Jana Goriup, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Demographic changes are visible in many areas of life, including tourism. Silver hair tourism is on the rise and this target group is becoming an increasingly important segment of the tourism market. The market for silver hair tourists is growing. They have high purchasing power, relatively higher than younger groups. Therefore, tourism needs to respond to new demographic challenges in society, such as population aging and active longevity, with new types and forms of tourism. The travel experience of silver hair tourists also has a significant impact on the quality and satisfaction of life in general. In many ways it adds value in the life of elderly adults, in the field of well-being, gaining new experiences, learning, expanding the social network, improving health and much more. Therefore, knowing the demographic characteristics of silver hair tourists is all the more important and necessary for the creation of good tourist offers. Within this paper we have conducted a survey among silver hair tourists aged between 65 and 75 years inclusive. Data was collected in Multigenerational Centres across Slovenia with a paper-pencil survey. We obtained 405 valid questionnaires. In the analysis of empirical data, we looked for statistically significant differences in five socio-demographic and economic variables. We found statistically significant differences between men and women and between the age groups of silver hair tourists regarding the choice of tourism activities. In terms of demographic factors such as education, income and assessment of health status, we find a connection between tourism activities and demography. Travel raises the quality of life of ‘silver hair tourists,’ so it is important to offer them programs that will be more tailored to them. This article provides some answers that can help us create programmes like that.
Ključne besede: silver hair tourists, tourist activities, elderly tourism, demography
Objavljeno v DKUM: 18.01.2024; Ogledov: 343; Prenosov: 12
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