1. Optimal bus stops' allocation : a school bus routing problem with respect to terrain elevationKlemen Prah, Abolfazl Keshavarzsaleh, Tomaž Kramberger, Borut Jereb, Dejan Dragan, 2018, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The paper addresses the optimal bus stops allocation in the Laško municipality. The goal is to achieve a cost reduction by proper re-designing of a mandatory pupils' transportation to their schools. The proposed heuristic optimization algorithm relies on data clustering and Monte Carlo simulation. The number of bus stops should be minimal possible that still assure a maximal service area, while keeping the minimal walking distances children have to go from their homes to the nearest bus stop. The working mechanism of the proposed algorithm is explained. The latter is driven by three-dimensional GIS data to take into account as much realistic dynamic properties of terrain as possible. The results show that the proposed algorithm achieves an optimal solution with only 37 optimal bus stops covering 94.6 % of all treated pupils despite the diversity and wideness of municipality, as well as the problematic characteristics of terrains' elevation. The calculated bus stops will represent important guidelines to their actual physical implementation. Ključne besede: logistics, maximal covering problems, optimization, data clustering, Monte Carlo simulation, geographic information system (GIS), reduction of transportation costs, Laško, Slovenia Objavljeno v DKUM: 22.08.2024; Ogledov: 35; Prenosov: 9 Celotno besedilo (2,40 MB) Gradivo ima več datotek! Več... |
2. Road freight transport forecasting : a fuzzy Monte-Carlo simulation-based model selection approachDejan Dragan, Simona Šinko, Abolfazl Keshavarzsaleh, Maja Rosi, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: As important as the classical approaches such as Akaike's AIC information and Bayesian BIC criterion in model-selection mechanism are, they have limitations. As an alternative, a novel modeling design encompasses a two-stage approach that integrates Fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs). In the first stage, an entire family of ARIMA model candidates with the corresponding information-based, residual-based, and statistical criteria is identified. In the second stage, the Mamdani fuzzy model (MFM) is used to uncover interrelationships hidden among previously obtained models criteria. To access the best forecasting model, the MCSs are also used for different settings of weights loaded on the fuzzy rules. The obtained model is developed to predict the road freight transport in Slovenia in the context of choosing the most appropriate electronic toll system. Results show that the mechanism works well when searching for the best model that provides a well-fit to the real data. Ključne besede: forecasting road transport, electronic toll system, Monte Carlo simulation, ARIMA models, logistics Objavljeno v DKUM: 11.06.2024; Ogledov: 135; Prenosov: 11 Celotno besedilo (2,36 MB) Gradivo ima več datotek! Več... |
3. Monte Carlo simulation of air resistance on an ellipsoid in motionVeronika Bukina, 2021, magistrsko delo Opis: The main goal of the master's thesis was the analysis of air resistance on the body in motion in a model that does not require solving the Navier-Stokes equations, but works on the basis of mechanics and statistical physics. The model was a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of the motion of ideal gas molecules in a closed container in which a body was placed, moving along one of the axes. For the most part of calculations, the approach was used when the body was fixed in the middle of the simulation cell, and one of the components of the molecular velocity had an additional term that simulated the flow, as if the body was moving at this speed in the opposite direction. First of all, a linear dependence of the drag force on speed was found for low flow speed for a flat plate, which was predicted by linear drag law. For high molecular flow rates, the quadratic dependence predicted by the Bernoulli equation was clearly observed. The results of calculating the corresponding resistivity coefficients for the flat plate were in agreement with the analytical values for both regimes of speeds. By analogy, a simulation was made for a spherical body, which also demonstrated a strong quadratic dependence at high speeds and the drag coefficient value is approximately equal to the analytical one. In the following, we studied systematically ellipsoids with circular cross-section, where we varied the ratio between semiaxes in the direction of motion and perpendicular direction, respectively. The results for the ellipsoid showed that the drag coefficient value is maximum for a flat plate (a limiting case of an ellipsoid, when the semiaxis in the direction of motion tends to 0) and decreases with stretching of the body along the flow axis. When the Maxwell distribution of molecular speeds that was mainly used was replaced with uniform Root-Mean-Square (RMS) speed the results for drag coefficient were slightly different. Ključne besede: Air resistance, drag force, quadratic drag law, drag coefficient, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, Maxwell distribution. Objavljeno v DKUM: 13.10.2021; Ogledov: 1038; Prenosov: 64 Celotno besedilo (1,64 MB) |
4. Technological valley of death as an emergent evolutionary phenomenonPetra Fic, 2019, magistrsko delo Opis: Perceptual researchers often argue that natural selection supports veridical perceptions, respectively those that accurately reflect the environment. They also claim that beings whose perceptions are truer are also more fit. This assumption was tested using standard tools of evolutionary game theory in a simple environment. The result was that more veridical perceptions are not necessarily more successful. In the majority of the parameter space, veridical perceptions are extinct in competition with simplified perceptions, based on adaptive behavior in a given environment. In the thesis, we build upon mentioned territorial games introduced by Mark, Marion, and Hoffman in 2010, and extend four of their territory perception and selection strategies with two novel ones that together constitute a model of technological readiness valley of death. Whenever utility of a resource is not monotonous in the amount of that resource, the technological valley of death emerges. While the development of the science behind these models is in its infancy, modeling and understanding the phenomenon may shed light on progress and related phenomena in society. Ključne besede: evolution, perception, utility, Monte Carlo simulation, game theory Objavljeno v DKUM: 22.11.2019; Ogledov: 1781; Prenosov: 187 Celotno besedilo (1,56 MB) |
5. Business model optmization based on value management principles - the case of Krka d.d.Gregor Gavranič, 2017, diplomsko delo Opis: The subsequent bachelor’s thesis comprises an investment report with equity valuation of Krka, d.d. company, the largest Slovenian company and one of the leading generic pharmaceutical companies in region.
Overall, the financial sector is coping with low interest rates and more and more investors are willing to enter the capital markets directly. The Slovenian equity markets was struggling to pick up the pace after the last major financial crisis, which was almost 10 years ago. The bull trend in other major and biggest markets in the world is on to set new records day by day. We try to find out if the company under scrutiny is attractive for investors and what upside potential it has in the future.
The analysis is presented trough most appropriate, popular and renowned techniques that surround equity research and is followed by the creation of final recommendation. Those are Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Economic Value Added (EVA), Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Relative Multiples Valuation (RMV). Additionally, the approaches like Porter’s five forces analysis, SWOT analysis, Sensitivity analysis, Altman Z-score, Piotroski F-score, Beneish M-score, and Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC) were made. Since equity markets provide a bigger risk for investors, we try to investigate how risky is a particular company and sector. The investment risks and Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) will help us do that. Risks and the future business surrounding also include macroeconomic analysis, which is also performed and helps us understand the topic under discussion better..
The key part of the thesis presents the building of financial valuation model with many variables and weighting it accordingly. The final fair value price is set and commented. In the conclusion, we summarise all our findings. Furthermore, some relevant facts are exposed and projected into the forecasted period.
At the end we can conclude that the Value-based Management (VBM) gives clear result and projects a path for future development. The company that was used for the research is a perfect example how VBM methods used for valuation can provide us with broader picture and inform investors about the company. On the other hand, the methods can also provide a large source of information that can be useful to the company’s management. Ključne besede: Macroeconomic analysis, valuation methods, Monte Carlo simulation, intrinsic value, risk profile Objavljeno v DKUM: 30.11.2017; Ogledov: 3049; Prenosov: 312 Celotno besedilo (5,11 MB) |
6. Synergies between an observed port and a logistic company : application of the discounted cash-flow model and the Monte Carlo simulationDejan Dragan, Bojan Rosi, Toni Avžner, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The paper addresses an analysis of potential synergies in collaboration between an observed Port in the Mediterranean Sea and Central-European logistic railway-services based company. Both companies have established a strategic partnership. The main motive was cooperation in rail transport, with a particular emphasis on potential synergies that would a rail traffic have brought to a port's business. For the purpose of synergies valuation under uncertain conditions, a Monte Carlo simulation-based framework with integrated discounted cash flow (DCF) model is applied. The possible values of future synergies are calculated via the DCF model by simultaneously changing values of different uncertain financial parameters at each repetition of a Monte Carlo scenario-playing mechanism. In this process, predicted forecasts of future synergetic throughputs are also used for various types of observed cargo. As it turned out, the generated synergies' values follow the approximate normal distribution. Based on statistical inference and analysis of probability intervals it was discovered that there might indeed exist certain important synergies in the collaboration between both companies. This fact has convinced us into a belief in the correctness of companies' decision to enter into such kind of strategic cooperation. Ključne besede: port economics, financial management, valuation, discounted cash-flow model, Monte Carlo simulation, logistics Objavljeno v DKUM: 06.07.2017; Ogledov: 1915; Prenosov: 299 Celotno besedilo (1,22 MB) Gradivo ima več datotek! Več... |
7. Monte Carlo simulation-based approach to optimal bus stops allocation in the Municipality of LaškoDejan Dragan, Tomaž Kramberger, Martin Lipičnik, 2011, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The paper addresses the problem of optimal bus stop allocation. The aim is to achieve reduction of costs on account of appropriate re-design of the process of obligatory transportation of children from their homes to the corresponding schools in the Laško municipality. The proposed algorithm relies on optimization based on the Monte Carlo simulation procedure. The number of calculated bus stops is required to be minimal possible, which can still assure maximal service area within the prescribed radius, while keeping the minimal walking distances pupils have to go across from their homes to the nearest bus stop and vice versa. The main issues of the proposed algorithm are emphasised and the working mechanism is explained. The presentation of calculated results is given and comparison with some other existing algorithms is provided. The positions of the calculated bus stops are going to be used for the purpose of physical bus stops implementation in order to decrease the current transportation costs. Ključne besede: location problems, maximal covering problems, optimization, Monte Carlo simulation Objavljeno v DKUM: 05.06.2017; Ogledov: 1317; Prenosov: 390 Celotno besedilo (1,01 MB) Gradivo ima več datotek! Več... |
8. Reconstruction of delivery positions in the city of Celje, SloveniaDejan Dragan, Klemen Prah, Tea Vizinger, Marko Intihar, Maja Fošner, Tomaž Kramberger, 2013, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The paper addresses the problem of the reconstruction and allocation of delivery positions in the urban area. The aim is to achieve the optimal reorganization of urban freight transport in old town core in the municipality of Celje. Optimal allocation relies on optimization based on the Monte Carlo simulation and represents a first stage of a two-stage optimization approach to re-design the existing urban freight transport. The number of optimal delivery positions is required to be as minimal as possible, which can still assure a maximal service area within the prescribed radius, while keeping the minimal walking distances of delivery personnel between the nearest delivery position and the customerʼs physical location. The main issues of the used heuristic allocation algorithm and the presentation of calculated results are provided. In the near future, the calculated delivery positions are going to be used for the purpose of physical implementation in order to improve the existing delivery transport. Ključne besede: urban transport problems, urban freight transport, delivery, optimization, maximum location covering problems, MLCP, Monte-Carlo simulation Objavljeno v DKUM: 10.07.2015; Ogledov: 1556; Prenosov: 165 Celotno besedilo (999,26 KB) Gradivo ima več datotek! Več... |
9. Using GIS for the optimization of pupils transportation: The case of Laško municipalityDejan Dragan, Tomaž Kramberger, Andrej Lisec, Marko Intihar, Klemen Prah, 2011, izvirni znanstveni članek Ključne besede: location, problems, maximal covering problems, optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, geographic information system (GIS), reduction of transportation costs, ArcLogistics Objavljeno v DKUM: 05.06.2012; Ogledov: 2982; Prenosov: 124 Povezava na celotno besedilo |