1. A Bayesian analysis of hop price fluctuationsDouglas MacKinnon, Martin Pavlovič, 2020, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: This paper quantifies the correlation between U.S. season average prices for hops with U.S. hop stocks and U.S. hop hectarage. The Hop Equilibrium Ratio, a measure of the supply/demand relationship for U.S. hops, was introduced. Through the Bayesian inference method, the authors used these data to calculate the effect an incremental change to one metric had on the probability of directional changes of future U.S. season average prices (SAP). Between 2010 and 2020, the dominance of proprietary varieties created unprecedented cartel-like powers offering opportunities for supply- and price-management. Research results will enable more accurate forecasting and greater price stability in the hop industry.
Ključne besede: alpha-acid, Bayesian theorem, brewing industry, economies of scale, equillbrium, hop market
Objavljeno v DKUM: 28.01.2025; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 3
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2. Decision-making in sustainable energy transition in Southeastern Europe : probabilistic network-based modelNena Hribar, Goran Šimić, Simonida Vukadinović, Polona Šprajc, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: Background: Sustainable energy transition of a country is complex and long-term process, which requires decision-making in all stages and at all levels, including a large number of different factors, with different causality. The main objective of this paper is the development of a probabilistic model for decision-making in sustainable energy transition in developing countries of SE Europe. The model will be developed according to the specificities of the countries for which it is intended—SE Europe. These are countries where energy transition is slower and more difficult due to many factors: high degree of uncertainty, low transparency, corruption, investment problems, insufficiently reliable data, lower level of economic development, high level of corruption and untrained human resources. All these factors are making decision-making more challenging and demanding.
Methods: Research was done by using content analysis, artificial intelligence methods, software development method and testing. The model was developed by using MSBNx—Microsoft Research’s Bayesian Network Authoring and Evaluation Tool.
Results: Due to the large number of insufficiently clear, but interdependent factors, the model is developed on the principle of probabilistic (Bayesian) networks of factors of interest. The paper presents the first model for supporting decision-making in the field of energy sustainability for the region of Southeastern Europe, which is based on the application of Bayesian Networks.
Conclusion: Testing of the developed model showed certain characteristics, discussed in paper. The application of developed model will make it possible to predict the short-term and long-term consequences that may occur during energy transition by varying these factors. Recommendations are given for further development of the model, based on Bayesian networks.
Ključne besede: sustainable energy transition, SE Europe, decision-making, Bayesian networks
Objavljeno v DKUM: 19.08.2024; Ogledov: 88; Prenosov: 12
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3. The delayed surplus response for hops related to market dynamicsDouglas MacKinnon, Martin Pavlovič, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The cyclical nature of hop market pricing has been recorded since the 16th century, but the effect had never previously been documented or quantified. Using Bayesian inference in an analysis of data regarding the US hop industry collected and published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) it was possible to measure the change of inventory and acreage responsiveness to price during periods of free and markets regulated through the enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR). The data demonstrated a delayed, reduced, or total lack of responsiveness in the change of direction of acreage and inventory in response to directional changes in season average price (SAP) during free market periods. This reaction was referred to as the delayed surplus response (DSR). The data also demonstrated the absence of the DSR during periods in which proprietary varieties reached greater than 50% of US acreage and production. Patented plant varieties offer a legal monopoly over that intellectual property (IP). The absence of the DSR during periods in which a majority of US acreage and production were proprietary indicated a strong degree of control over supply. By extension, the owners of proprietary varieties demonstrated the ability to influence price at desired levels.
Ključne besede: Bayesian inference, brewing industry, disequilibrium, hop market, proprietary variety
Objavljeno v DKUM: 11.07.2024; Ogledov: 75; Prenosov: 7
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4. Vpliv lastniških sort na trg hmelja zda v letih od 2000 do 2020 vpliv lastniških sort na trg hmelja zda v letih od 2000 do 2020 : doktorska disertacijaDouglas MacKinnon, 2022, doktorska disertacija Opis: Analizirane so bile spremembe dinamike hmeljnega trga med letoma 1948 in 2020, da bi se vzpostavili izhodiščni rezultati in trendi v zvezi z razmerji med metriko industrije ZDA, kot so proizvodnja, zaloge, izpiranje zalog in povprečna cena sezone. Na podlagi edinstvenih tržnih načel je bilo izbranih pet podpopulacij podatkov. Korelacija z metodo Pearson in verjetnost vzročnih odnosov z uporabo Bayesijevega izreka med metriki industrije so bili izračunani tako, da so dokazali svojo evolucijo skozi čas v različnih obdobjih. Primerjave med obdobji so količinsko razčlenile stopnjo, na katero je do leta 2020 vplival hmeljski trg v ZDA. Vsaka spremenljivka je bila analizirana kot odvisna in neodvisna spremenljivka na načine, ki so merili njihov vpliv na dogodke prihodnjih let. To je omogočilo razvoj modela napovedi cen hmelja v ZDA. Z uporabo Indeksa Herfindahl-Hirschman je bilo zmanjšanje konkurenčnosti v industriji hmelja v ZDA zaradi povečanega lastnega deleža sort med letoma 2000 in 2020 količinsko razvrščeno. Dokumentirani so bili hmeljni kartel z vplivom na hektar, proizvodnjo, dobavo in ceno 70 odstotkov hmelja v zda do leta 2020. Napovedi za leta 2020 do leta 2025 so pokazale lastniško sortno prevlado 90 odstotkov industrije ZDA do leta 2025 z 80 odstotki akrila ZDA pod vplivom enega podjetja. Ugotovljeni so bili dokazi za zakasnitev presežnega odziva (DSR), metodo, s katero se razvija disekvilibrij na trgu hmelja in so bili izpostavljeni podatki, ki dokazujejo njegove učinke med letoma 1948 in 2000. Njena odsotnost v obdobju hitre rasti lastnih sort je ponudila dokaze o obstoju in moči kartela. Hmeljsko ravnotežje (HER) je bila predstavljena metoda za določanje tržnega ravnotežja ZDA in njenih učinkov na količinsko napoved cen. Razpravljalo se je o vplivu cen na obstoj hmeljskega kartela, stroških izgub mrtve teže in morebitnih učinkih doganjanja med trgovci in pridelovalci.
Ključne besede: Hmelj, Ravnotežje, Intelektualna lastnina, Lastniški sorti, Konkurenca, Oligopsony, Bayesian, Pearson, Herfindahl-Hirschman, Kartel.
Objavljeno v DKUM: 09.05.2022; Ogledov: 1053; Prenosov: 76
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