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Decision-making in sustainable energy transition in Southeastern Europe : probabilistic network-based model
Nena Hribar, Goran Šimić, Simonida Vukadinović, Polona Šprajc, 2021, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background: Sustainable energy transition of a country is complex and long-term process, which requires decision-making in all stages and at all levels, including a large number of different factors, with different causality. The main objective of this paper is the development of a probabilistic model for decision-making in sustainable energy transition in developing countries of SE Europe. The model will be developed according to the specificities of the countries for which it is intended—SE Europe. These are countries where energy transition is slower and more difficult due to many factors: high degree of uncertainty, low transparency, corruption, investment problems, insufficiently reliable data, lower level of economic development, high level of corruption and untrained human resources. All these factors are making decision-making more challenging and demanding. Methods: Research was done by using content analysis, artificial intelligence methods, software development method and testing. The model was developed by using MSBNx—Microsoft Research’s Bayesian Network Authoring and Evaluation Tool. Results: Due to the large number of insufficiently clear, but interdependent factors, the model is developed on the principle of probabilistic (Bayesian) networks of factors of interest. The paper presents the first model for supporting decision-making in the field of energy sustainability for the region of Southeastern Europe, which is based on the application of Bayesian Networks. Conclusion: Testing of the developed model showed certain characteristics, discussed in paper. The application of developed model will make it possible to predict the short-term and long-term consequences that may occur during energy transition by varying these factors. Recommendations are given for further development of the model, based on Bayesian networks.
Ključne besede: sustainable energy transition, SE Europe, decision-making, Bayesian networks
Objavljeno v DKUM: 19.08.2024; Ogledov: 88; Prenosov: 10
.pdf Celotno besedilo (3,93 MB)
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2.
Decarbonisation of Eastern European economies : monitoring, economic, social and security concerns
Mirjana Radovanović, Sanja Filipović, Simonida Vukadinović, Milovan Trbojević, Iztok Podbregar, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background Decarbonisation of the European economy is one of the main strategic goals of energy transition in the European Union (EU), which aims to become a leader in this process by 2050 and to include other European countries making thus the European continent the first carbon neutral region in the world. Although decarbonisation is an important goal of the EU, the models for monitoring the progress of this process have not yet been clearly defined, and views on the social, economic, and security implications in terms of prioritising decarbonisation are conflicting. The main objective of this paper is to determine the methodological correctness of the existing method of decarbonisation monitoring, to develop a new monitoring model indicating the differences in the EU and European countries that are non-EU and to point out the underlying social, economic and security implications that must certainly find their place in the decision-making process in this field. Results The main results showed that there is no clearly defined model for monitoring the success of decarbonisation, while the indicators that are commonly used for this purpose make a model that, as the analysis shows—is methodologically incorrect. In the case of EU countries, the following indicators proved to be the most reliable: consumption-based CO2 and share in global CO2. For non-EU countries, the best monitoring indicators are CO2 per unit of GDP, consumption-based CO2, and renewable energy consumption. These indicators can explain 99% of the variance in decarbonisation success. Conclusions The basic conclusion of the paper is that even before the implementation, the decarbonisation monitoring model should be defined and methodologically tested, and the use of a single model for all EU countries or for all countries is not recommended. It is proposed to simplify the monitoring model, with an emphasis on monitoring of consumption-based CO2, which proved to be the most efficient in all sampled countries. The current method of monitoring is based exclusively on environmentally related indicators while ignoring the fact that decarbonisation is associated with almost all aspects of development. The additional social, economic and security aspects need to be developed and included in the further monitoring process.
Ključne besede: decarbonisation, Eastern European economies, monitoring, social implications, security aspects
Objavljeno v DKUM: 02.07.2024; Ogledov: 144; Prenosov: 14
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,20 MB)
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