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Development of a methodology to calibrate a pedestrian microsimulation model : doctoral dissertation
Chiara Gruden, 2022, doktorska disertacija

Opis: Walking, as a mode of transport, is becoming widespread, in a world, where urban conglomerates are broadening and becoming denser. Modern lifestyle trends on a side, and eco-friendly policies on the other, push people into walking habits, increasing the need for a suitable, attractive, accessible, connected and safe walking infrastructure. To reach such a result, it is necessary to understand, what are the needs of the users of this infrastructure, taking into consideration the behavioral specificities and the safety needs of pedestrians. In this process pedestrian microsimulation models, surrogate safety techniques, and technologies able to measure specific traits of pedestrian dynamics play a central role. The firsts allow to reproduce repeatedly in a virtual environment a specific infrastructure and to study the response of pedestrians. Nevertheless, to be accurate and efficient, they need to go through long and tedious calibration and validation processes, that are often seen as an important limitation by technicians. Surrogate safety techniques are methods, that are based on the concept, that it is possible to predict the safety level of a location, using near accidents. The main advantage of such techniques is that they are proactive. Till this moment, these techniques have been mainly applied to on-field measurements and are primarily centered on motorized road users. Less interest has been shown for vulnerable road users, especially for pedestrians, who have been less extensively studied. Finally, an element that could highly affect pedestrian safety is their reaction time. Nevertheless, its measurement has long been a big issue. Eye-tracking technology could be one of the solutions, allowing to analyze the directions and objects fixated by pedestrians. These listed issues are also the topics that are addressed by this research work. Focusing on the study of the action of pedestrians while crossing the road on an unsignalized crosswalk set on a roundabout entry leg, the dissertation thesis aims at studying the crossing time, reaction time and surrogate safety aspects typical of pedestrians at the recalled location. The main purpose of the research work is to develop a methodology to calibrate pedestrian Social Force Model at a selected location, using a specifically formulated neural network as a tool to fine-tune model's behavioral parameters. Eight parameters have been chosen to be fine-tuned, five of those are related to pedestrian behavior and three of them are related to car-following behavior. After the selection of input parameters, a feedforward network has been formulated. Its application in the framework of the whole calibration process has brought to considerably positive results, finding a combination of input parameters that improved the performance of the microsimulation model of 37 % in comparison to the default one. The outputs of the calibrated model have been used to calculate three measures of surrogate safety, and also in this case results demonstrated an improvement in the calculation of surrogate safety measures when using the calibrated outcomes in comparison to their calculation on the “default” model outputs. Finally, reaction time measurement and prediction have been addressed by the thesis, in order to be able to describe pedestrian crossing action in its completeness. Quantitative eye-tracking outputs have been the starting point for the calculation of pedestrian reaction time at different locations, and they allowed to create a database of behavioral, geometric, regulatory and flow characteristics, which was the foundation for the formulation of a new prediction model for pedestrian reaction time. The prediction model, which consists of a cascade-correlation neural network, gave a good response to the learning and generalization steps, turning a 74 % correlation between the measured reaction time values and the predicted ones, and being able to follow the variability of these values.
Ključne besede: pedestrian, microsimulation model, calibration, neural network, surrogate safety indicators, reaction time.
Objavljeno v DKUM: 03.10.2022; Ogledov: 106; Prenosov: 25
.pdf Celotno besedilo (5,93 MB)

Analysis of neural network responses in calibration of microsimulation traffic model
Irena Ištoka Otković, Damir Varevac, Matjaž Šraml, 2015, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Microsimulation models are frequently used in traffic analysis. Various optimization methods are used in calibration, and the one method that has shown success is neural networks. This paper shows the responses of neural networks during calibration of a microsimulation traffic model. We analyzed two calibration methods by applying neural networks and comparing their neural network learning (according to their achieved correlation and the mean error of prediction) and their generalization ability (comparison of generalization results was analyzed in two steps). The best correlation between the microsimulation results and neural network prediction was 88.3%, achieved for the traveling time prediction, on which the first calibration method is based.
Ključne besede: microsimulation traffic models, calibration, response of neural networks, traveling time, queue parameters
Objavljeno v DKUM: 02.08.2017; Ogledov: 922; Prenosov: 354
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,07 MB)
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Analysis of the influence of car-following input parameters on the modelled travelling time
Irena Ištoka Otković, Tomaž Tollazzi, Matjaž Šraml, 2013, kratki znanstveni prispevek

Opis: The calibration process is a basic condition of traffic model application in local conditions. The choice of input parameters, which are used in calibration process, influences the success of the calibration process itself; therefore, the goal is to choose parameters with a larger influence on the modelling process. This paper offers a detailed analysis of car-following input parameters and their influence on the modelled travelling time. The experimental basis was a one-lane roundabout, and the tool used for traffic simulation was the VISSIM microsimulation traffic model. The results show that the car-following input parameters should be a part of the set of input parameters, which will enter the process of calibration. The examined car-following input parameters affect the capacity of intersections and results show that it is necessary to revise the range of input values of one of the observed car-following input parameters.
Ključne besede: car-following input parameters, input parameters for the process of calibration, VISSIM
Objavljeno v DKUM: 11.07.2017; Ogledov: 874; Prenosov: 122
.pdf Celotno besedilo (680,10 KB)
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Using neural networks in the process of calibrating the microsimulation models in the analysis and design of roundabouts in urban areas
Irena Ištoka Otković, 2011, doktorska disertacija

Opis: The thesis researches the application of neural networks in computer program calibration of traffic micro-simulation models. The calibration process is designed on the basis of the VISSIM micro-simulation model of local urban roundabouts. From the five analyzed methods of computer program calibration, Methods I, II and V were selected for a more detailed research. The three chosen calibration methods varied the number of outgoing traffic indicators predicted by neural networks and a number of neural networks in the computer program calibration procedure. Within the calibration program, the task of neural networks was to predict the output of VISSIM simulations for selected functional traffic parameters - traveling time between the measurement points and queue parameters (maximum queue and number of stopping at the roundabout entrance). The Databases for neural network training consisted of 1379 combinations of input parameters whereas the number of output indicators of VISSIM simulations was varied. The neural networks (176 of them) were trained and compared for the calibration process according to training and generalization criteria. The best neural network for each calibration method was chosen by using the two-phase validation of neural networks. The Method I is the calibration method based on calibration of a traffic indicator -traveling time and it enables validation related to the second observed indicator – queue parameters. Methods II and V connect the previously described calibration and validation procedures in one calibration process which calibrates input parameters according to two traffic indicators. Validation of the analyzed calibration methods was performed on three new sets of measured data - two sets at the same roundabout and one set on another location. The best results in validation of computer program calibration were achieved by the Method I which is the recommended method for computer program calibration. The modeling results of selected traffic parameters obtained by calibrated VISSIM traffic model were compared with: values obtained by measurements in the field, the existing analysis methods of operational roundabouts characteristics (Lausanne method, Kimber-Hollis, HCM) and modeling by the uncalibrated VISSIM model. The calibrated model shows good correspondence with measured values in real traffic conditions. The efficiency of the calibration process was confirmed by comparing the measured and modeled values of delays, of an independent traffic indicator that was not used in the process of calibration and validation of traffic micro-simulation models. There is also an example of using the calibrated model in the impact analysis of pedestrian flows on conflicting input and output flows of vehicles in the roundabout. Different traffic scenarios were analyzed in the real and anticipated traffic conditions.
Ključne besede: traffic models, traffic micro-simulation, calibration of the VISSIM model, computer program calibration method, neural networks in the calibration process, micro-simulation of roundabouts, traffic modeling parameters, driving time, queue parameters, delay
Objavljeno v DKUM: 02.06.2011; Ogledov: 4476; Prenosov: 321
.pdf Celotno besedilo (13,21 MB)

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