Iskanje po katalogu digitalne knjižnice

Opis: The main objective of this paper is to analyze model settings of the International Energy Security Risk Index developed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The study was performed using stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and Promax oblique rotation. The conclusion of the regression analysis shows that Crude Oil Price and Global Coal Reserves are sufficient to explain 90% of the variance of the Index. However, if a model that explains 100% of the variance of the Index is chosen and other variables are added, Global Coal Reserves loses importance due to the presence of other parameters in which it is contained. Regardless of the chosen model of analysis, it is evident that there is room for revising the Index and removing variables that do not contribute to its precision. The research showed that the main disadvantage of the variables that make up the Index rests with the fact that the variables are of different degrees of generality, that is, one parameter is contained in other parameters (unclear which other). The research covers data for 25 countries over a 26-year period, with the first year of the research being 1980 and the last 2016 (the latest available report).
Ključne besede: international energy security risk index, analysis, stepwise regression, principal component analysis, Promax oblique rotation
Objavljeno v DKUM: 04.02.2025; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 17
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Opis: Background: Sustainable energy transition of a country is complex and long-term process, which requires decision-making in all stages and at all levels, including a large number of different factors, with different causality. The main objective of this paper is the development of a probabilistic model for decision-making in sustainable energy transition in developing countries of SE Europe. The model will be developed according to the specificities of the countries for which it is intended—SE Europe. These are countries where energy transition is slower and more difficult due to many factors: high degree of uncertainty, low transparency, corruption, investment problems, insufficiently reliable data, lower level of economic development, high level of corruption and untrained human resources. All these factors are making decision-making more challenging and demanding. Methods: Research was done by using content analysis, artificial intelligence methods, software development method and testing. The model was developed by using MSBNx—Microsoft Research’s Bayesian Network Authoring and Evaluation Tool. Results: Due to the large number of insufficiently clear, but interdependent factors, the model is developed on the principle of probabilistic (Bayesian) networks of factors of interest. The paper presents the first model for supporting decision-making in the field of energy sustainability for the region of Southeastern Europe, which is based on the application of Bayesian Networks. Conclusion: Testing of the developed model showed certain characteristics, discussed in paper. The application of developed model will make it possible to predict the short-term and long-term consequences that may occur during energy transition by varying these factors. Recommendations are given for further development of the model, based on Bayesian networks.
Ključne besede: sustainable energy transition, SE Europe, decision-making, Bayesian networks
Objavljeno v DKUM: 19.08.2024; Ogledov: 88; Prenosov: 12
Celotno besedilo (3,93 MB)
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Opis: Background The main goal of the paper is to define, analyze and assess the basic security, development and institutional challenges faced by the Central Asian countries after 2022. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, and with the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Europe faced problems in ensuring energy security, which were further complicated by its decision to stop importing natural gas from the Russian Federation. The Central Asian region is rich in energy resources, but at the same time, it is also a region of special geopolitical interest of often-conflicting parties, characterized by limited information and insufficient academic literature about development, various aspects of security, internal specificities and future challenges. Methods The research included qualitative and quantitative analyses carried out for Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Germany. Data processing was performed based on 16 selected indicators in the fields of economy, energy, governance and climate change, for the time period 2011 to 2021. Data processing was performed using correlation and regression analysis (ANOVA). Results The results showed that corruption represents one of the biggest problems faced by the countries of Central Asia, with the biggest variations in the calculated Standardized Confidence level, which shows that this indicator trend, in relation to the 16 indicators used, is the least predictable. This represents a significant problem for all countries that are supplied with energy products from this region, or plan to do so. Energy security is positive only in the case of Turkmenistan. Regression analysis shows that Kazakhstan reported the best positive trend for most indicators. Data for Germany show consistent values over the observed period. Conclusions The main conclusions of the paper indicate that the countries of Central Asia have certain specificities when it comes to sustainable development, where energy security, corruption and government efficiency can be considered the biggest problems. The European Union must find ways and mechanisms to overcome these and many other impediments if they decide to import energy products from the aforementioned region.
Ključne besede: energy security, corruption perception, governance efectiveness, Central Asia, Germany
Objavljeno v DKUM: 15.04.2024; Ogledov: 257; Prenosov: 12
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