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Prices of conventional and renewable energy as determinants of sustainable and secure energy development : regression model analysis
Sandi Knez, Goran Šimić, Anica Milovanović, Sofia Starikova, Franc Željko Županič, 2022, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background The prices of energy resources are important determinants of sustainable energy development, yet associated with significant unknowns. The estimates of the impact of prices of energy products in the domestic market (for domestic consumers) are rare—hence the importance and novelty of this research. Therefore, the main goal of the paper is to assess the impact of domestic prices of gasoline, gas, coal, and solar energy on sustainable and secure energy future. Methods The research includes 14 countries (of which 7 are developed and 7 are developing countries) and a period of 5 years (2014–2018). The model also includes discrete variables: level of development (developing or developed), and the fact as to whether the country is an energy exporter or not. For the purposes of analysis, the following elements were used: Panel Data Analysis, Linear regression (with random and fixed effects), Durbin–Wu–Hausman test, and Honda test, with the use of R-studio software for statistical computing. Results The research showed that the biggest negative impact on energy sustainability was recorded by an increase in the price of coal and the smallest one by an increase in the price of solar energy. An increase in the price of gasoline has a positive impact, while an increase in the price of gas has no impact. The basic methodological result showed that the fixed effects linear model is more accurate than the random effect model. Conclusions The results of the paper, important as a sustainable energy policy recommendation, showed that the impact of changes in energy product prices is significantly greater in developing countries, but that the status of the country as an energy exporter has no significance. In addition, the paper points to the need to intensify the research on the assessment of the impact of energy product prices for domestic consumers on their ability to pay that price, because with a certain (so far undefined) increase in energy product prices, a certain group of domestic consumers moves into a category that is not in line with sustainable energy development and is extremely undesirable in every respect—energy poverty.
Ključne besede: sustainable energy development, conventional energy prices, solar prices, developing countries, R-studio
Objavljeno v DKUM: 26.06.2024; Ogledov: 76; Prenosov: 6
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,65 MB)
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Energy security of the European Union and corruption in Central Asia as the main challenges for the European sustainable energy future
Bojana Vasić, Ivan Pekić, Goran Šimić, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: Background The main goal of the paper is to define, analyze and assess the basic security, development and institutional challenges faced by the Central Asian countries after 2022. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, and with the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Europe faced problems in ensuring energy security, which were further complicated by its decision to stop importing natural gas from the Russian Federation. The Central Asian region is rich in energy resources, but at the same time, it is also a region of special geopolitical interest of often-conflicting parties, characterized by limited information and insufficient academic literature about development, various aspects of security, internal specificities and future challenges. Methods The research included qualitative and quantitative analyses carried out for Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Germany. Data processing was performed based on 16 selected indicators in the fields of economy, energy, governance and climate change, for the time period 2011 to 2021. Data processing was performed using correlation and regression analysis (ANOVA). Results The results showed that corruption represents one of the biggest problems faced by the countries of Central Asia, with the biggest variations in the calculated Standardized Confidence level, which shows that this indicator trend, in relation to the 16 indicators used, is the least predictable. This represents a significant problem for all countries that are supplied with energy products from this region, or plan to do so. Energy security is positive only in the case of Turkmenistan. Regression analysis shows that Kazakhstan reported the best positive trend for most indicators. Data for Germany show consistent values over the observed period. Conclusions The main conclusions of the paper indicate that the countries of Central Asia have certain specificities when it comes to sustainable development, where energy security, corruption and government efficiency can be considered the biggest problems. The European Union must find ways and mechanisms to overcome these and many other impediments if they decide to import energy products from the aforementioned region.
Ključne besede: energy security, corruption perception, governance efectiveness, Central Asia, Germany
Objavljeno v DKUM: 15.04.2024; Ogledov: 202; Prenosov: 8
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,59 MB)
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