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Opis: The aim of this paper is to investigate whether macroprudential policy instruments can influence the credit growth rate and hence financial stability. We use a fixed effects panel regression model to test the following hypothesis for six euro area economies (Austria, Finland, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain) during time span 2010 Q3 to 2018 Q4: “Macroprudential policy instruments (degree of maturity mismatch; interbank loans as a percentage of total loans; leverage ratio; non-deposit funding as a percentage of total funding; loan-to-value ratio; loan-to-deposit ratio; solvency ratio) enhance financial stability, as measured by credit growth”. Our empirical results suggest that the degree of maturity mismatch, non-deposit funding as a percentage of total funding, loan-to-value ratio and loan-to-deposit ratio exhibit the predicted impact on the credit growth rate and therefore on financial stability. On the other hand, interbank loans as a percentage of total loans, leverage ratio, and solvency ratio do not exhibit the expected impact on the response variable. Since only four regressors (out of seven) have the signs predicted by our hypothesis, we can only partly confirm it.
Ključne besede: macroprudential policy, macroprudential instruments, systemic risk, financial stability
Objavljeno v DKUM: 26.09.2024; Ogledov: 0; Prenosov: 13
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Opis: In this paper, we investigate the impact of macroprudential policy measures (bundled together into a macroprudential policy index, MPI) on the nonfinancial corporate sector credit and household credit growth using a one-step system GMM empirical research method. The goal of our paper is to test whether contractionary macroprudential policy stymies credit growth rate and whether expansionary macroprudential policy spurs credit growth rate in selected Euro Area economies (Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain) over the period 2008Q4–2018Q4. We test two hypotheses: H1: The tightening of macroprudential policy measures reduces the non-financial corporate sector credit growth rate, and H2: The tightening of macroprudential policy measures reduces the growth rate of household credit. Based on our empirical results, we can confirm the first hypothesis. In contrast, the second hypothesis can be neither confirmed nor rejected since the explanatory variable of interest (MPI) is statistically insignificant in the second model.
Ključne besede: macroprudential policy, systemic risk, financial stability, dynamic panel data, one-step system GMM
Objavljeno v DKUM: 05.09.2023; Ogledov: 299; Prenosov: 241
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Opis: This doctoral dissertation represents a comprehensive treatment of the many facets of macroprudential policy. We start by delving into the notions of macroprudential policy, systemic risk and financial stability, describe the macroprudential policy transmission mechanism, systemic financial crises and contagion channels, as well as the Modigliani-Miller theorem and its violations. We proceed by illustrating a multitude of available macroprudential policy instruments, attempt to clarify whether capital controls can be considered a macroprudential policy instrument, describe the use and calibration of macroprudential policy instruments, and elaborate on the changes to the EU macroprudential policy framework after the enactment of the Capital Requirements Regulation II and Capital Requirements Directive V. Next, we describe interactions between macroprudential policy and other policies, in particular microprudential, monetary, fiscal and structural policies. We attempt to answer the question of whether macroprudential policy should be entrusted to a central bank, a financial supervisory authority, or the government. Furthermore, we investigate whether countries should reciprocate each other’s macroprudential policy stance. Moreover, we review the existing research regarding the impact of macroprudential policy instruments on financial stability. We attempt to answer the question of whether the existence of a macroprudential policy framework could have prevented the Global Financial Crisis of 2007. Last but not least, we conduct our own empirical assessment of the impact of macroprudential policy instruments on financial stability in six euro area countries (Belgium, Cyprus, Germany, Spain, Ireland and Netherlands) over sixteen quarters (from 2015 Q1 (inclusive) to 2018 Q4 (inclusive)) by using the quantitative research method of panel econometrics. We tested three hypotheses: H1: Macroprudential policy instruments (common equity tier 1 ratio; loans to deposits ratio; non-deposit funding as percentage of total funding; leverage ratio; interconnectedness ratio; and coverage ratio for non-performing exposures) enhance financial stability, as measured by credit growth. H2: Macroprudential policy instruments (common equity tier 1 ratio; loans to deposits ratio; non-deposit funding as percentage of total funding; leverage ratio; interconnectedness ratio; and coverage ratio for non-performing exposures) enhance financial stability, as measured by house price growth. H3: Macroprudential policy instruments (common equity tier 1 ratio; loans to deposits ratio; non-deposit funding as percentage of total funding; leverage ratio; interconnectedness ratio; and coverage ratio for non-performing exposures) reduce cyclical fluctuations of the economy, as measured by the amplitude of the deviations of the actual economic growth rate from its long-run trend, thereby contributing to financial stability. Our empirical results suggest that, of the investigated macroprudential policy instruments, common equity tier one ratio, coverage ratio, and interconnectedness ratio exhibit the predicted impact on credit growth rate and on the deviation of the actual economic growth rate from its long-run trend. Furthermore, common equity tier one ratio, loans to deposits ratio, and leverage ratio exhibit the predicted impact on house price growth rate. The non-deposit funding ratio does not exhibit the expected impact on any of the response variables. Hence, we can only partly confirm hypotheses 1, 2 and 3. Our conclusions are in line with contemporary research on macroprudential policy. Taking into account the existing empirical research, combined with our findings as presented in this dissertation, a case can be made for the usage of carefully crafted macroprudential policy instruments which target selected financial and macroeconomic variables with the ultimate goal of attaining financial stability of the financial system as a whole.
Ključne besede: Macroprudential policy, macroprudential instruments, systemic risk, financial stability
Objavljeno v DKUM: 03.05.2022; Ogledov: 926; Prenosov: 110
Celotno besedilo (6,57 MB)

Opis: Raziskava magistrskega dela se nanaša na upravljanje s sredstvi in obveznostmi (angl. asset-liability management, ALM) z osredotočenjem na obrestno tveganje. ALM je strateška disciplina, ki se ukvarja z merjenjem vpliva tveganj, ki izhajajo iz bančne knjige, na bilanco stanja; z napovedovanjem teh tveganj v različnih tržnih okoliščinah in ob različnih predpostavkah; in s sprejemanjem ukrepov za obvladovanje teh tveganj. Namen ALM je iskanje ravnovesja med nenaklonjenostjo tveganju in zaslužku premije za tveganje pri zavzemanju vsaj nekoliko tveganih pozicij (pri katerih se sredstva in obveznosti ne ujemajo popolnoma po ročnosti, obsegu, obrestni meri in datumih prilagoditve obrestne mere). Pri ALM gre za prevzemanje »preračunanih tveganj« pri opravljanju funkcije »transformacije« (financiranje dolgoročnih posojil s kratkoročnimi depoziti) z namenom zaslužka premije za tveganje oziroma realizacije dobička. Zaposleni v oddelku ALM svojo strategijo upravljanja s sredstvi in obveznostmi v veliki meri gradijo na pričakovanjih o prihodnjem gibanju terminske strukture obrestnih mer. V aplikativnem delu magistrske naloge se tako ukvarjamo z ocenjevanjem krivulje donosnosti brezkuponskih vrednostnih papirjev, ki je izhodiščna točka za vrednotenje denarnih tokov sredstev in obveznosti v bilanci stanja. Uporabimo dva modela – Nelson-Siegel in kubične zlepke (angl. cubic zlepkes) – za konstrukcijo krivulje donosa brezkuponskih vrednostnih papirjev. Poznavanje krivulje donosa brezkuponskih vrednostnih papirjev predstavlja temelj vrednotenja mnogih finančnih instrumentov (vrednostnih papirjev s fiksnim donosom, obveznic, izvedenih finančnih instrumentov itd.), s tem pa tudi osnovo vseh ALM modelov.
Ključne besede: Upravljanje s sredstvi in obveznostmi, obrestno tveganje, krivulja donosa, Nelson-Siegel, kubični zlepki.
Objavljeno v DKUM: 14.06.2016; Ogledov: 1650; Prenosov: 273
Celotno besedilo (1,75 MB)

Opis: Unemployment negatively affects the government budget and inflicts costs on the unemployed individuals as well as on the society as a whole in many ways. The direct costs of unemployment for the state budget arise due to the benefits paid out to the unemployed, and due to foregone direct and indirect taxes. On the level of an individual, nonmonetary costs are a multiple of the monetary ones, which indicates that employment plays a central role in a person’s well-being. Unemployment has a spill-over effect on the society as a whole and affects not only the unemployed, but also the employed population, particularly in the areas experiencing high unemployment rates. We take the case study of Germany, the country often used as a quintessence of how to overcome the problem of massive unemployment. Before the four Hartz reforms, which were implemented in years 2003, 2004 and 2005, Germany was characterized as the »sick man of Europe« owing to its exploding levels of unemployment, dysfunctional labor market, unsustainable social budget, and rising public debt. As the reforms were put into force, the situation in the German labor market underwent a 360° turnaround and became portrayed as the »German economic miracle«. The true effects of the reforms fully transpired in the economic and financial crisis of 2008/2009, when most countries experienced escalating unemployment rates, while Germany kept them at bay. Studies show that flexible working-time arrangements and short-time work have played a major role in inhibiting lay-offs in German companies during the recent crisis, and hence in preventing a spike in unemployment rates, which we use as one of the points that validate our Model of employment. The government subsidies made it possible for companies to reduce the working hours of their employees instead of laying them off. An important feature of the German labor market is a comparatively high percentage of part-time workers (around 25% in years 2006–2011), which also explains the low unemployment rates Germany has been recording since the reforms were introduced. The reforms cut the amount and duration of unemployment benefits, which gave the unemployed more incentives to find a job. A negative aspect of the reform may be an increased divide between the core work force and the marginal workers, which intensifies social differences and is currently on the agenda of German politics. Also some researches stress the importance of social cohesion and that the risks and opportunities in the labor market should be more evenly distributed. In the accompanying explanations to the Model of employment, some of the successful measures of Germany’s Hartz reforms may be spotted, while at the same time we avoid the »mistakes« of these reforms, thus making sure that social differences among people would narrow down upon the real-life implementation of the Model. When the number of job vacancies sharply exceeds the number of unemployed, and when there are poor prospects of new job openings in the near future, the only viable solution to the problem of unemployment is to reduce the working hours of the existing employees. The Model of employment that we develop represents a possible solution to the problem of unemployment and thus addresses the need to reduce the costs of unemployment to the unemployed individual, to the state budget, and to the society as a whole. The crux of the Model is a re-distribution of the total number of workplaces and total annual working hours among the »new actively employed population«, which comprises all persons having the potential to become or stay employed or self-employed in a given year. The model allows for a flexible arrangement of working hours – from four and up to eight hours per employee per day. Our solution will release the working hours, make them available to the currently unemployed, and hence ensure a more equitable distribution of income and work load amongst the population. In addition, as the workers will be less tired and stressed-out, their productivity will in
Ključne besede: unemployment, labor force, labor market, part-time employment, full-time employment, labor market flexibility, costs of unemployment, Hartz reforms
Objavljeno v DKUM: 30.08.2013; Ogledov: 2601; Prenosov: 176
Celotno besedilo (1,23 MB)