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1.
Ovrednotenje modelov verjetnostne porazdelitve napake napovedi proizvodnje vetrnih elektrarn
Boštjan Polajžer, Dunja Srpak, objavljeni znanstveni prispevek na konferenci

Opis: V članku so obravnavani različni modeli verjetnostne porazdelitve napake proizvodnje vetrnih elektrarn. Poleg modelov, znanih iz literature (beta, Weibull, gamma), so obravnavani modeli z razširjeno nesimetrično posplošeno normalno porazdelitvijo. Obravnavan je tudi model s t.i. verzatilno verjetnostno porazdelitvijo, ki je občutljiv na valovitost empirične porazdelitve, vendar omogoča analitičen izračun percentilne funkcije. Dobljeni rezultati kažejo, da modeli z beta, Weibull in gamma verjetnostno porazdelitvijo ne dajejo dobrih rezultatov, bistveno bolj ustrezni so modeli z nesimetrično posplošeno normalno verjetnostno porazdelitvijo.
Ključne besede: model verjetnostne porazdelitve, verjetnostna analiza, porazdelitev napake, proizvodnja električne energije, vetrne elektrarne
Objavljeno: 10.10.2017; Ogledov: 128; Prenosov: 19
.pdf Celotno besedilo (907,97 KB)

2.
The impact of wind-power generation on the planning of regulating reserve
Dunja Srpak, Boštjan Polajžer, 2017, izvirni znanstveni članek

Opis: This paper presents new approach to the optimal distribution of the regulating reserve (RR) in a set of available regulating generation units. It is developed using evolutionary computation for the transmission-loss minimization and power-flow computation by applying the iterative method with a reactive power correction for voltage control. The approach involves the use of actual operating data directly from the network’s dispatch centre as well as daily and hourly plans of wind and load power for determining the RR requirements for the load frequency control (LFC). By testing the proposed approach on a case study, the possibility of implementing it on real power systems is demonstrated. The obtained results of the testing with actual data from the Croatian control area indicate substantial savings in ancillary service costs for the LFC and the considerable impact of different variations from the plan of each individual wind-power plant on the optimal RR distribution.
Ključne besede: evolutionary computation, frequency control, optimization, power systems, wind power generation
Objavljeno: 24.10.2017; Ogledov: 168; Prenosov: 34
.pdf Celotno besedilo (1,52 MB)

3.
The impact of wind-power generation on the planning of regulating reserve
Dunja Srpak, 2018, doktorska disertacija

Opis: This doctoral thesis focuses on the efficient management of a power system with a large share of wind-power generation and on the methods for planning the operating reserve. The approach proposed in this research involves the use of data directly from the network’s dispatch center and the forecasting systems, as well as already existing day-ahead plans for wind and load power to determine the regulating reserve for the load frequency control (LFC). The same principle is used to find the optimal regulating reserve distribution (RRD) between the available generation units in the system for automatic generation control. It is developed using iterative power-flow computation with a reactive power correction and a stochastic search algorithm for transmission-loss minimization. Moreover, variations in the generation of individual wind-power plants (WPPs) from the plan are considered in the optimal RRD. A special focus of this research has been put on the Croatian power system due to the accessibility of relevant information and operating data. The obtained results of the testing with actual data from the Croatian power system indicate substantial savings in ancillary service costs for the LFC, while ensuring safe system operation. The considerable impact of variations from the plan for each individual WPP generation on the optimal RRD was also identified. Comparing the results for the daily sum of regulating reserves obtained with the proposed and the currently used approaches, the corresponding costs indicate a total saving of 21.2% for all 12 selected days in 2015 when using the proposed approach. In practice, a part of the reserve can be slow, i.e., with a lower unit price, thus the savings would be even higher. Furthermore, the obtained optimal RRD computed according to the proposed approach was compared with four commonly used RRDs in Croatia. The results obtained using the proposed approach indicate a decrease in the total transmission losses of between 1% and 2%. With a larger share of the generation from the WPPs and with more dispersed locations of the WPPs and regulating power plants a larger reduction in the transmission losses is expected.
Ključne besede: Evolutionary computation, Frequency control, Optimization, Power system, Regulating reserve, Wind power generation
Objavljeno: 28.03.2018; Ogledov: 142; Prenosov: 28
.pdf Celotno besedilo (9,03 MB)

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