1. Universal productivity patterns in research careersAndre S. Sunahara, Matjaž Perc, Haroldo V. Ribeiro, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: A common expectation is that career productivity peaks rather early and then gradually declines with seniority. But whether this holds true is still an open question. Here we investigate the productivity trajectories of almost 8500 scientists from over 50 disciplines using methods from time-series analysis, dimensionality reduction, and network science, showing that there exist six universal productivity patterns in research. Based on clusters of productivity trajectories and network representations where researchers with similar productivity patterns are connected, we identify constant, u-shaped, decreasing, periodic-like, increasing, and canonical productivity patterns, with the latter two describing almost three-fourths of researchers. In fact, we find that canonical curves are the most prevalent, but contrary to expectations, productivity peaks occur much more frequently around midcareer rather than early. These results outline the boundaries of possible career paths in science and caution against the adoption of stereotypes in tenure and funding decisions.
Ključne besede: scientific networks, research career, social physics, universality
Objavljeno v DKUM: 13.09.2024; Ogledov: 38; Prenosov: 6
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2. Complexity of the COVID‑19 pandemic in MaringáAndre S. Sunahara, Arthur A. B. Pessa, Matjaž Perc, Haroldo V. Ribeiro, 2023, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: While extensive literature exists on the COVID-19 pandemic at regional and national levels, understanding its dynamics and consequences at the city level remains limited. This study investigates the pandemic in Maringá, a medium-sized city in Brazil’s South Region, using data obtained by actively monitoring the disease from March 2020 to June 2022. Despite prompt and robust interventions, COVID-19 cases increased exponentially during the early spread of COVID-19, with a reproduction number lower than that observed during the initial outbreak in Wuhan. Our research demonstrates the remarkable impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on both mobility and pandemic indicators, particularly during the onset and the most severe phases of the emergency. However, our results suggest that the city’s measures were primarily reactive rather than proactive. Maringá faced six waves of cases, with the third and fourth waves being the deadliest, responsible for over two-thirds of all deaths and overwhelming the local healthcare system. Excess mortality during this period exceeded deaths attributed to COVID-19, indicating that the burdened healthcare system may have contributed to increased mortality from other causes. By the end of the fourth wave, nearly three-quarters of the city’s population had received two vaccine doses, signifcantly decreasing deaths despite the surge caused by the Omicron variant. Finally, we compare these fndings with the national context and other similarly sized cities, highlighting substantial heterogeneities in the spread and impact of the disease.
Ključne besede: complex system, correlation, epidemics, COVID-19
Objavljeno v DKUM: 17.07.2024; Ogledov: 117; Prenosov: 20
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3. City size and the spreading of COVID-19 in BrazilHaroldo V. Ribeiro, Andre S. Sunahara, Jack Sutton, Matjaž Perc, Quentin S. Hanley, 2020, izvirni znanstveni članek Opis: The current outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an unprecedented example of how fast an infectious disease can spread around the globe (especially in urban areas) and the enormous impact it causes on public health and socio-economic activities. Despite the recent surge of investigations about different aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we still know little about the effects of city size on the propagation of this disease in urban areas. Here we investigate how the number of cases and deaths by COVID-19 scale with the population of Brazilian cities. Our results indicate small towns are proportionally more affected by COVID-19 during the initial spread of the disease, such that the cumulative numbers of cases and deaths per capita initially decrease with population size. However, during the long-term course of the pandemic, this urban advantage vanishes and large cities start to exhibit higher incidence of cases and deaths, such that every 1% rise in population is associated with a 0.14% increase in the number of fatalities per capita after about four months since the first two daily deaths. We argue that these patterns may be related to the existence of proportionally more health infrastructure in the largest cities and a lower proportion of older adults in large urban areas. We also find the initial growth rate of cases and deaths to be higher in large cities; however, these growth rates tend to decrease in large cities and to increase in small ones over time.
Ključne besede: COVID-19, coronavirus, scaling, city size, epidemic, prediction
Objavljeno v DKUM: 12.11.2020; Ogledov: 980; Prenosov: 269
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